- The Braves are -120 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Braves starting pitcher: Jared Shuster, 1.03 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck, 4.50 ERA
- Watch the game on NESN
The Atlanta Braves (-120) visit JetBlue Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+100) on Friday, March 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Fort Myers.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Braves vs Red Sox Over/Under is 11 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Braves are 5-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 11-6 ATS.
Braves vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +120 | O 11 -110 | -120 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -145 | U 11 -110 | +100 |
Braves vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s Spring Training matchup with 61.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Braves vs Red Sox and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Travis d’Arnaud has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 games (+4.05 Units / 80% ROI)
- Adam Duvall has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+3.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.10 Units / 86% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+2.05 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.75 Units / 92% ROI)
- Reese McGuire has hit the Singles Under in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+1.65 Units / 29% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 140 games (+23.04 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 79 of their last 116 games (+22.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 77 of their last 133 games (+21.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 57 away games (+12.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+9.10 Units / 12% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+10.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+8.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 133 games (+7.30 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games at home (+6.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 29 games at home (+5.85 Units / 16% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 5-8 against the Run Line (-4.35 Units / -26.85% ROI).
- 5-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.5 Units / -18.52% ROI
- 9-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.75 Units / 33.57% ROI
- 4-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.95 Units / -41.03% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 11-6 against the Run Line (+5.05 Units / 24.63% ROI).
- 10-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.7 Units / 31.02% ROI
- 8-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.85 Units / -4.53% ROI
- 8-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.75 Units / -4.02% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
8 of Tanner Houck’s 29 breaking pitch strikeouts (28%) were backdoor last season — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 11% — 95th Percentile.
Tanner Houck allowed a slugging percentage of just .227 (30 Total Bases / 132 ABs) against right-handed batters last season — 3rd best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .358 — 97th Percentile.
Tanner Houck walked 14 of 101 left-handed batters (14%) last season — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 9% — fifth Percentile.
Tanner Houck had a first-pitch strike rate of just 52% (127/244) last season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 59-12 (.831) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Braves are 36-5 (.878) when scoring in the first inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Red Sox are just 6-12 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 4-65 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Red Sox are just 5-63 (.074) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Red Sox are just 159-22 (.878) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters slugged .443 against RHP last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Braves hitters slugged .486 on pitches 95 mph or greater last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .383.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .837 (1,216 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .753 (4,444 PA’s) against RHP last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox batted .272 at home last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Red Sox batted .265 against LHP last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Red Sox are batting .182 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .185 against Braves pitchers with the shift last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox have won 47% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox pitchers allowed an exit velocity over 105 MPH 415 times last season — most in MLB.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games on the road since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Red Sox pitchers had an ERA of 4.59 (735.0 IP) at home last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.82.
Red Sox vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Atlanta Braves – No Injuries Reported
Bet now on Braves vs Red Sox and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
