- The Braves are -120 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Braves starting pitcher: Jared Shuster, 1.03 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck, 4.50 ERA
- Watch the game on NESN
The Atlanta Braves (-120) visit JetBlue Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+100) on Friday, March 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Fort Myers.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Braves vs Red Sox Over/Under is 11 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Braves are 5-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 11-6 ATS.
Braves vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
Braves | -1.5 +120 | O 11 -110 | -120 |
Red Sox | +1.5 -145 | U 11 -110 | +100 |
Braves vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s Spring Training matchup with 61.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Travis d’Arnaud has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 games (+4.05 Units / 80% ROI)
- Adam Duvall has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+3.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.10 Units / 86% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+2.05 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.75 Units / 92% ROI)
- Reese McGuire has hit the Singles Under in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+1.65 Units / 29% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 140 games (+23.04 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 79 of their last 116 games (+22.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 77 of their last 133 games (+21.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 57 away games (+12.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+9.10 Units / 12% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+10.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+8.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 133 games (+7.30 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games at home (+6.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 29 games at home (+5.85 Units / 16% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 5-8 against the Run Line (-4.35 Units / -26.85% ROI).
- 5-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.5 Units / -18.52% ROI
- 9-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.75 Units / 33.57% ROI
- 4-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.95 Units / -41.03% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 11-6 against the Run Line (+5.05 Units / 24.63% ROI).
- 10-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.7 Units / 31.02% ROI
- 8-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.85 Units / -4.53% ROI
- 8-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.75 Units / -4.02% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
8 of Tanner Houck’s 29 breaking pitch strikeouts (28%) were backdoor last season — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 11% — 95th Percentile.
Tanner Houck allowed a slugging percentage of just .227 (30 Total Bases / 132 ABs) against right-handed batters last season — 3rd best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .358 — 97th Percentile.
Tanner Houck walked 14 of 101 left-handed batters (14%) last season — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 9% — fifth Percentile.
Tanner Houck had a first-pitch strike rate of just 52% (127/244) last season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 59-12 (.831) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Braves are 36-5 (.878) when scoring in the first inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Red Sox are just 6-12 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 4-65 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Red Sox are just 5-63 (.074) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Red Sox are just 159-22 (.878) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters slugged .443 against RHP last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Braves hitters slugged .486 on pitches 95 mph or greater last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .383.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .837 (1,216 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .753 (4,444 PA’s) against RHP last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox batted .272 at home last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Red Sox batted .265 against LHP last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Red Sox are batting .182 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .185 against Braves pitchers with the shift last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox have won 47% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox pitchers allowed an exit velocity over 105 MPH 415 times last season — most in MLB.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games on the road since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Red Sox pitchers had an ERA of 4.59 (735.0 IP) at home last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.82.
Red Sox vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Atlanta Braves – No Injuries Reported
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