Brewers vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 2

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 02, 2022, 11:02 AM
  • The Brewers (69-61) are -115 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (62-68)
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Eric Lauer (10-5), 3.58 ERA
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Davies (2-4), 3.82 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Milwaukee Brewers (-115) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-105) on Friday, September 2, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.

The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).

The Brewers vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Brewers are 67-60 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 75-52 ATS.

Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Brewers-1.5 +140O 8.5 -105-115
Diamondbacks +1.5 -165U 8.5 -115-105

Brewers vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Friday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jace Peterson has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 18 away games (+13.35 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 26 away games (+13.25 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Jace Peterson has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 18 away games (+13.05 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Hunter Renfroe has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 24 games (+10.75 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Andrew McCutchen has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 16 away games (+10.35 Units / 50% ROI)

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 44 of his last 91 games (+14.45 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Daulton Varsho has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 24 games at home (+12.20 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+11.20 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+11.10 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Jake McCarthy has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 17 games at home (+11.00 Units / 63% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 60 of their last 110 games (+11.75 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 69 games (+2.37 Units / 3% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 52 games (+24.70 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+7.90 Units / 93% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 22 of their last 37 games (+6.60 Units / 17% ROI)

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 52-75 against the Run Line (-29.55 Units / -19.23% ROI).

  • 67-60 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.1 Units / -10.38% ROI
  • 62-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.15 Units / -1.53% ROI
  • 59-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.1 Units / -5.78% ROI

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 75-52 against the Run Line (+20.15 Units / 12.32% ROI).

  • 61-66 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.25 Units / 1.57% ROI
  • 58-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.1 Units / -8.71% ROI
  • 64-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.95 Units / -0.67% ROI

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 32% (102/324) against Eric Lauer this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.

Eric Lauer has walked 41 of 477 right-handed batters (9%) this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — seventh Percentile.

Eric Lauer has walked 27 of 215 batters (13%) versus the top of the order this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.

Eric Lauer has walked 51 of 566 batters (9%) this season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — seventh Percentile.

Zachary Davies: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Zach Davies has located his pitches away 71% of the time (323/454) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.

Zach Davies has located his pitches away 61% of the time (710/1,167) when behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.

Zach Davies has located his fastball away 64% of the time (595/934) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.

Zach Davies has a first-pitch strike rate of just 54% (601/1,121) since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Brewers are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Brewers are just 7-28 (.200) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .278.

The Brewers are 35-26 (.574) at home this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .528.

The Brewers are 7-45 (.135) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .114.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Diamondbacks are just 102-30 (.773) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Diamondbacks are just 113-19 (.856) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Diamondbacks are just 10-31 (.244) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Diamondbacks are just 30-170 (.150) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.

The Brewers are batting just .048 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (10 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .256.

The Brewers are batting just .224 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.11 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .684 (2,951 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.

Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .283 (586 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.

Diamondbacks hitters have put 43% of balls in play to the right side of the field with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .217 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.

Diamondbacks hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers pitchers are throwing 4.03 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Trevor Gott (Brewers): Forearm, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Wrist, D60
  • Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
  • Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
  • Michael Brosseau (Brewers): Oblique, D10
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
  • Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Elbow, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.