- The Rays are -210 favorites vs the Brewers
- Brewers starting pitcher: Eric Lauer
- Rays starting pitcher: Zachary Eflin
- Watch the game on Fox Sports 1
The Milwaukee Brewers (+170) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-210) on Saturday, May 20, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Brewers vs Rays Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Brewers are 24-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 27-19 ATS.
Brewers vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | +1.5 -115 | O 8.5 -115 | +170 |
| Rays | -1.5 -105 | U 8.5 -105 | -210 |
Brewers vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 78.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 games (+13.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- Owen Miller has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+11.15 Units / 54% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+11.10 Units / 30% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 33 games (+10.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- Owen Miller has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.60 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Taylor Walls has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 28 games (+9.75 Units / 32% ROI)
- Luke Raley has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+9.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- Taylor Walls has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 28 games (+9.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+9.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+8.95 Units / 35% ROI)
Rays vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Rays vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
Rays vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
Rays vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Lauer | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
| Zach Eflin | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 38 games (+5.25 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 43 games (+3.60 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.30 Units / 25% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 46 games (+16.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 46 games (+14.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 46 games (+12.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 46 games (+9.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+8.45 Units / 35% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 21-23 against the Run Line (-1.75 Units / -3.34% ROI).
- 24-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.2 Units / 3.86% ROI
- 19-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.1 Units / -16.5% ROI
- 24-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.1 Units / 6.49% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 27-19 against the Run Line (+9.2 Units / 17.2% ROI).
- 33-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.1 Units / 20.61% ROI
- 25-18 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.8 Units / 9.43% ROI
- 18-25 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.7 Units / -19.28% ROI
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 25% (28/113) against Eric Lauer this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 13% (3/23) against Eric Lauer with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 22% (20/91) against Eric Lauer this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (181/553) against Eric Lauer since last season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: 43% — fourth Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zach Eflin has a first-pitch strike rate of just 44% (22/50) over the last 14 days (2 games) — lowest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 63% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 14% (15/109) against Zach Eflin this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Zach Eflin has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 75.5 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (74 balls in play) — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: 80.6
Zach Eflin has a first-pitch strike rate of just 44% (22/50) — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Brewers are just 11-43 (.204) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Brewers are 7-4 (.636) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .425.
The Brewers are 21-13 (.618) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 17-2 (.895) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .793.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Rays are 8-8 (.500) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .207.
The Rays are 7-4 (.636) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Rays are 2-11 (.154) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Rays are 20-3 (.870) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .529.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have 135 strikeouts in 445 PA’s (30%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .362 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .404.
The Brewers are batting just .221 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Brewers hitters have 575 strikeouts in 2,156 PA’s (27%) against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters are slugging .552 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
Rays hitters are slugging .646 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .448.
Rays hitters are slugging .501 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Rays hitters have an OPS of .846 (1,765 PA’s) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the 2021 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have won only 15% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Rays pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers have walked 528 of 7,614 batters (7%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have won 59% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Rays pitchers have won 100% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Rays vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Flexor Strain, D60
- Shawn Armstrong (Rays): Neck, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D60
- Louis Voit (Brewers): Neck, D10
- Luis UrÃas (Brewers): Hamstring, D60
- Matthew Bush (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Wade Miley (Brewers): Lat Strain, D15
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Jacob Bukauskas (Brewers): Spine, D15
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