Buffalo Bills: Can They Cover the Spread at Tampa Bay in Week 14?

This week, the Buffalo Bills visit Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a possible preview to Super Bowl LVI. NFL odds have Buffalo as 3-point underdogs.

Buffalo’s 2nd-ranked defense has kept them in most games this season, but the offense led by Josh Allen will have to find its scoring touch again to beat the Buccaneers.

This is the first time the Bills will face Brady in a Buccaneers uniform. So let’s have a closer look at how the Bills can cover the spread in Week 14.

Buffalo Bills On The Road

Last week, the Bills lost a heartbreaker 14-10 to the New England Patriots. The loss to their divisional rivals dropped Buffalo to 7-5 and put them in the last wild card position.

But, the Bills are still first in total yards allowed on defense in the NFL and are 1st in pass yards against. The Bills are 4-2 away from home this year and 2-0 against NFC opponents. In their last two games on the road, Buffalo scored 76 points.

Bills Offense

Despite their 3-3 record since the bye week, Buffalo ranks 8th in passing yards per game and 5th in points scored.

There isn’t one featured back, but the Bills’ trio averages 116.7 yards per game. Devin Singletary, Zack Moss, and Matt Breida combine to average 4.52 yards per carry. Allen also rushes for 35 yards per game. The group has contributed 12 rushing touchdowns.

Allen has thrown for 3216 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Allen has a 65.7% completion rate and averages 303.2 yards per game.

Allen’s favorite target, Stefon Diggs, has 71 catches for 898 yards and seven touchdowns. Emmanuel Sanders has contributed with 581 yards, four touchdowns, and a 14.9-yard average.

Buffalo Bills Scoring

The Buffalo Bills average 28 points per game. With their top-ranked defense in yards allowed, that should be enough to win most games, but the Buccaneers are capable of putting up a lot of points as well. The Bucs have scored 30 points or more in their previous three games.

So the Bills need another performance like the one Week 12 against the New Orleans Saints, winning 31-6. In that game, Allen threw for 260 yards and four TDs. Allen, Singletary, and Breida also ran for a combined 113 yards.

Allen spread 23 completions to seven different receivers, including his running backs. Tampa Bay has the 20th-ranked pass defense (248.4 yards per game), so Buffalo should find some opportunities to score in this game.

Allen’s mobility will help him against Tampa Bay’s defense, which is ranked third in sacks. And receivers Cole Beasley and Dawson Knox will have more prominent roles if the Bucs key on Diggs.

Bills vs. Buccaneers (-3.5)

The Buffalo Bills have a critical test against the reigning Super Bowl champions. With a loose hold on to the 7th seed in the AFC wild card, the Bills need a win this week.

Buffalo has three more games against teams with losing records, and they have a rematch with the Patriots in New England.

I believe that Buffalo can spread the ball around to their speedy receivers and take advantage of the Bucs’ pass defense this week. I’m not sure they can win the game, but I believe they can score at least 24 points, which makes them a decent option for the King of the Weekend promo.

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