The top two AFC East teams will meet in Week 16 in what could be an AFC playoff preview. Current NFL odds suggest this game has the potential to be very close.
Today’ we’re breaking down the scoring potential of the Buffalo Bills. It’s likely to be one of the most crucial games of the season.
Buffalo Bills (+115)
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 26th
- Time: 1:00 PM EST on CBS
- Venue: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA
- Participants: Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots
The Buffalo Bills (8-6) opened as a slight underdog against the New England Patriots (9-5). Both teams are 3-1 in the AFC East.
A win for either team in Week 16 would solidify their playoff positioning.
The Bills will host the Atlanta Falcons and New York Jets for their final two games. Meanwhile, the Patriots will play at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars and finish the season on the road against the Miami Dolphins.
The Bills and Pats last met in Week 13 on a windy night in Buffalo. Bill Belichick stuck to his run game; rookie quarterback Mac Jones only attempted three passes.
That strategy worked, leading to a memorably 14-10 Patriots victory.
The Bills suffered another tough loss in the following week in Florida against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Josh Allen attempted 54 passes, completing 36 for 308 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. He also ran for 109 yards on 12 rushes with a score.
Buffalo scored 17 points in the fourth quarter to send the game into overtime.
The Bills’ offense immediately sputtered on the first drive. The Bucs got the ball back, and Tom Brady threw a 58-yard touchdown pass to Breshad Perriman to end the game.
Last week, the Bills regrouped at home against the Carolina Panthers. Allen threw three touchdown passes in a 31-14 victory.
How does Buffalo stack up against New England this week?
Bills (+2.5) vs. Patriots
The Patriots had more than 40 rushing attempts the last time they played the Bills. After their bye, they lost on the road against the Indianapolis Colts, 27-17.
Jones threw two interceptions as the Colts ended the Pats’ seven-game winning streak. New England totaled 81 rushing yard while giving up 226.
Jonathan Taylor put up eye-popping numbers against the Patriots: 29 carries, 170 rushing yards, and a touchdown.
Buffalo has averaged 23.7 rushing attempts in their last three contests, the ninth-lowest in the NFL. During that same span, however, the Bills have averaged 130.3 yards on the ground per game, only two spots behind New England.
The Bills’ rushing defense ranks 16th in the league, while the Patriots occupy the 24th spot. Both teams rank in the bottom five at stopping the run across their previous three games. The Patriots have allowed 198.3 rushing yards on average in their last three matchups, the worst in the league.
If the Bills commit to the running game this week, I believe that they have a decent chance of winning this game.
Buffalo’s passing offense is seventh-best in the NFL, while New England ranks 17th. Both of these teams are facing elite passing defenses this week. The Bills rank No. 1 overall in the league when it comes to passing yards allowed per game. However, the Patriots have only given up an average of 88.3 passing yards in their last three contests.
With a total currently sitting at 43.5, all signs point to another low-scoring game between these two teams.
I believe the Bills can establish the running game this week, and I trust Allen against a top-tier passing defense more than I trust Jones. For that reason, I believe that Buffalo has a decent chance to sneak by New England this week. I like the under as well in this game.
Prediction: Bills 20, Patriots 17
Buffalo Bills: Can They Pull Off an Upset Victory in Week 16?
What do you think? Do you believe the Buffalo Bills can win in an upset against the New England Patriots in Week 16?
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