Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennady Golovkin 3: Odds, Analysis & Prediction

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Canelo Alvarez, left, and Gennady Golovkin pose during a weigh-in Friday, Sept. 15, 2017, in Las Vegas.
(AP Photo/John Locher)
Anatoly Pimentel @AnatolyPimentel Sep 13, 2022, 10:42 PM
  • Canelo Alvarez is the heavy favorite at -450.
  • Gennady Golovkin is the underdog at +350.

The T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas will play host to one of the most anticipated boxing trilogies in recent memory as Canelo Alvarez (57-2-2) will be defending his undisputed middleweight title against rival Gennady Golovkin (42-1-1). Alvarez and Golovkin’s first two meetings ended up in a draw and a majority decision in the former’s favor, thus making him the preferred winner in most online sportsbooks.

These two previous results made the Mexican superstar the heavy favorite in the boxing odds at -450 despite losing his last match against Dmitry Bivol, while his Kazakhstan challenger will be the underwhelming underdog at +350 despite winning his last four fights via stoppage.

Since winning via major decision against Gennady Golovkin in their second meeting in September 2018, Canelo Alvarez has moved to a higher weight class and won multiple titles. He stopped Rocky Fielding in the third round to capture the WBA Super Middleweight title in December 2018.

Then, he defended his IBF, WBA and WBC belts over Daniel Jacobs with a unanimous decision win in May 2019 before moving up to the light heavyweight division in November 2019 to challenge Sergey Kovalev for the WBO Light Heavyweight title. Alvarez scored an eleventh-round knockout to add another title to his name.

The Mexican superstar went back to the super middleweight division to unify all of the titles, beginning with a dominant unanimous decision win over Callum Smith in December 2020 to capture the WBC Super Middleweight Title alongside his WBA title. Next, he did quick work of Avni Yildirim in February 2021 to successfully defend both titles.

Alvarez added the WBO Super Middleweight Title to his collection by stopping Billy Joe Saunders in their May 2021 showdown to inch closer to unifying all titles in the 167-pound division. That goal was shortly realized months later as he recorded an eleventh-round TKO of Caleb Plant to capture all four major super middleweight belts.

Dmitry Bivol denied his quest to add another title in a bigger weight class after he handed Alvarez a unanimous decision loss this past May. It was only Canelo’s second career defeat after absorbing his first professional loss from Floyd Mayweather Jr. in September 2013.

If Alvarez dropped a fight since their last meeting, Gennady Golovkin collected a perfect 4-0 record and ultimately redeemed himself after that majority loss to the Mexican in September 2018. First, Golovkin cruised past Steve Rolls in June 2019 with a fourth-round knockout.

Triple G claimed the vacant IBF and IBO Middleweight Titles after masterfully defeating Sergiy Derevyanchencko in October 2019, then proceeded to defend those belts over Kamil Szeremeta by scoring a seventh-round TKO win to pick up his fourth consecutive win.

Golovkin’s latest victim was Japan’s Ryota Murata, whom he TKO’ed in the ninth round to retain his two middleweight championships and earn the WBA Super Middleweight title in the process.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennady Golovkin 3 Fight Analysis

To say that the two previous meetings of Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin were all-time classics is an understatement because they represented the epitome of boxing to its highest level. The first meeting reflected the two fighter’s styles and produced a debatable result of a draw. But I believe Triple G should have won that fight in September 2017.

Golovkin was able to pressure Alvarez during the majority of the bout and adjusted his strategy well mid-fight. His relentless pace of moving forward from start to finish put Alvarez on his heels throughout the match. However, this allowed the Mexican superstar to employ his counter-strategy.

Although he went on the back foot in the first meeting, Canelo Alvarez successfully countered Golovkin, which opened opportunities for him to shine as well in the first collision. The rematch, though, was entirely different because it seemed that the fighters changed roles

Canelo Alvarez refused to be bullied backward by Gennady Golovkin by throwing more jabs to decline the pressure from the Kazakh. Because of this, Golovkin was the one waiting to counter during the fight, and from then on, it was again a back-and-forth affair.

Both men had their moments, but neither of them got dropped or scored a knockdown which means that their power is almost identical and they absorb each other’s blows very well. Ultimately, Alvarez got the nod from the two judges on the scorecards to give Gennady Golovkin his first-ever career loss via majority decision. This third encounter between these two champions might end under 12 rounds and I see it to Alvarez’s favor.

Despite winning his four previous fights via stoppage, Golovkin is already in his 40, which means father time is just around the corner. Additionally, the opposition he fought is nowhere on the same level as Alvarez. On the other hand, Canelo has been fighting the top opponents and even moved up to a higher weight class to sharpen his skills.

The oddsmakers are on point to give Canelo Alvarez a significant advantage because it’s actually the case, but this time, I think that the four-division world champion will score a TKO/KO win over Triple G to cement himself as one of the greatest super middleweight champions in boxing history.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennady Golovkin 3 Fight Prediction

Official prediction: Canelo Alvarez via seventh-round TKO/KO win.

See the entire Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennady Golovkin 3 odds and wagers here.

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About the Author

Anatoly Pimentel

Read More @AnatolyPimentel

Anatoly Pimentel is an NBA and MMA writer previously featured in ASEAN Sports, Asian Persuasion MMA, and Overtime Heroics MMA. He graduated from Adamson University with B.A in Communication and is currently a Web Content Writer for BetMGM.

Anatoly Pimentel is an NBA and MMA writer previously featured in ASEAN Sports, Asian Persuasion MMA, and Overtime Heroics MMA. He graduated from Adamson University with B.A in Communication and is currently a Web Content Writer for BetMGM.