- The Cardinals are -105 favorites vs the Guardians
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Matthew Liberatore
- Guardians starting pitcher: Shane Bieber
- Watch the game on BSGL
The St. Louis Cardinals (-105) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-115) on Friday, May 26, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Cardinals are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Cardinals vs Guardians Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cardinals are 23-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 21-28 ATS.
Cardinals vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +165 | O 7.5 -105 | -105 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -200 | U 7.5 -115 | -115 |
Cardinals vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 59.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cardinals and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Hits Over in his last 13 games (+13.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+9.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- Willson Contreras has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 21 away games (+8.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- Willson Contreras has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.55 Units / 52% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 40 of his last 47 games (+26.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 17 games (+13.85 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 46 games (+13.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+12.60 Units / 57% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+11.95 Units / 26% ROI)
Guardians vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1250 | 0.5 |
Guardians vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
Guardians vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Guardians vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
| Matthew Liberatore | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.65 Units / 36% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+6.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 24 away games (+5.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+4.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+3.80 Units / 14% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 42 games (+19.10 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 33 games (+16.45 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.95 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.65 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 13 games at home (+1.00 Units / 6% ROI)
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 23-29 against the Run Line (-9.55 Units / -14.39% ROI).
- 23-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.45 Units / -22.28% ROI
- 27-23 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.7 Units / 2.98% ROI
- 23-27 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.75 Units / -11.77% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 21-28 against the Run Line (-8.6 Units / -13.85% ROI).
- 21-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.5 Units / -22.73% ROI
- 16-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.9 Units / -31.41% ROI
- 30-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.6 Units / 23.31% ROI
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Matthew Liberatore has not allowed a HR in any of his last five starts dating back to June 14th, 2022 — John Brebbia has the longest active streak at 14.
Matthew Liberatore has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last four games dating back to July 2nd, 2022 — Cristian Javier has the longest active streak at 7.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 64% of the time (196/307) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 64% of the time (196/307) this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .480 (12-for-25) against Shane Bieber — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .244 — first Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his pitches away 62% of the time (163/263) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Cardinals are just 18-3 (.857) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Cardinals are 22-5 (.815) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are 7-84 (.077) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Cardinals are just 1-25 (.038) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .099.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Guardians are 22-74 (.229) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .123.
The Guardians are 22-53 (.293) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .198.
The Guardians are just 17-12 (.586) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .732.
The Guardians were 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters are slugging .465 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .404.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .808 (1,836 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .722.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .742 (2,530 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .688.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .468 against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,042 strikeouts in 5,854 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .341 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Guardians hitters have just 1,473 strikeouts in 7,970 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .340 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers in 2022 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2021 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 25 of 441 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 132 of 1,851 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 113 of 1,901 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Oblique, D15
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Dylan Carlson (Cardinals): Ankle, D10
- Patrick Naughton (Cardinals): Forearm, D60
- Wilking RodrÃguez (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Jacob Woodford (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Back, D10
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