Cardinals vs Nationals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Mar 4

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 04, 2023, 10:51 AM
  • The Cardinals are -115 favorites vs the Nationals
  • Cardinals starting pitcher: Sidney Thomas, 9.00 ERA
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray, 0.00 ERA

The St. Louis Cardinals (-115) visit The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches to take on the Washington Nationals (-105) on Saturday, March 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in West Palm Beach.

The Cardinals are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Cardinals vs Nationals Over/Under is 11.5 total runs for the game.

During Spring Training, the Cardinals are 4-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 3-2 ATS.

Cardinals vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cardinals-1.5 +135O 11.5 -105-115
Nationals +1.5 -160U 11.5 -115-105

Cardinals vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Saturday‘s Spring Training matchup with 65.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cardinals and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Nolan Gorman has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Paul DeJong has hit the Runs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+1.25 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Juan Yepez has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 3 away games (+1.00 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 2 of his last 3 away games (+1.00 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Juan Yepez has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 3 away games (+0.05 Units / 2% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Keibert Ruiz has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Dee Strange-Gordon has hit the Hits Over in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Yadiel Hernandez has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+3.10 Units / 103% ROI)
  • Dee Strange-Gordon has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Alex Call has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+2.80 Units / 93% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 38 of their last 70 away games (+10.50 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+8.45 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 away games (+8.20 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 77 games (+7.75 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 96 games (+7.25 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 95 games (+7.45 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 89% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 69 games (+4.30 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 48 games (+1.75 Units / 3% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 43 games (+0.25 Units / 1% ROI)

Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 4-2 against the Run Line (+2.85 Units / 39.86% ROI).

  • 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.05 Units / 12.65% ROI
  • 2-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.35 Units / -20% ROI
  • 3-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.85 Units / 13.18% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 3-2 against the Run Line (+0.85 Units / 13.6% ROI).

  • 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.05 Units / 21% ROI
  • 1-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.4 Units / -62.39% ROI
  • 4-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.85 Units / 51.35% ROI

Connor Thomas is making his MLB debut today.

Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Josiah Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of .559 (199 Total Bases / 356 ABs) vs left-handed batters since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .386 — first Percentile.

Josiah Gray has walked 62 of 423 left-handed batters (15%) since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.

Josiah Gray allowed 38 home runs last season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Josiah Gray allowed a slugging percentage of .701 (47 Total Bases / 67 ABs) on fastballs away last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .370 — 0 Percentile.

Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Cardinals are 16-4 (.800) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Cardinals are 47-11 (.810) when totaling 10 or more hits last season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .727.

The Cardinals are 49-9 (.845) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Cardinals are 71-4 (.947) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals

The Nationals are just 17-94 (.153) when scoring 4 or fewer runs last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

The Nationals are just 55-90 (.379) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

The Nationals are just 26-55 (.321) at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.

The Nationals are just 12-81 (.129) when allowing 5 or more runs last season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.

Cardinals hitters are slugging .469 against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.

Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .803 (2,611 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .725.

Cardinals hitters have 260 extra-base hits out of 599 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Cardinals hitters had an OPS of .808 (1,366 PA’s) against LHP last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .714.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Nationals hitters had 63 extra-base hits out of 242 total hits (just 26%) on the first pitch of at-bats last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Nationals hitters slugged just .488 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.

Nationals hitters are slugging .233 on pitches out of the zone since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Opponents had a groundball rate of 48% against Cardinals pitchers last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cardinals pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 73% of their games at home last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Nationals vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported
  • St. Louis Cardinals – No Injuries Reported

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.