- The Cardinals are -105 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Adam Wainwright
- Red Sox starting pitcher: James Paxton
- Watch the game on NESN
The St. Louis Cardinals (-105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-115) on Friday, May 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Cardinals are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Cardinals vs Red Sox Over/Under is 11 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cardinals are 13-25 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 22-16 ATS.
Cardinals vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +145 | O 11 -110 | -105 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -175 | U 11 -110 | -115 |
Cardinals vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 59.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cardinals and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+8.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- Lars Nootbaar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 7 games (+7.35 Units / 80% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 14 away games (+7.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.90 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 33 games (+12.90 Units / 33% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 27 games (+12.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+12.45 Units / 54% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.30 Units / 51% ROI)
Red Sox vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Juan Yepez | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Andrew Knizner | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
Red Sox vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +150 | 1.5 -200 |
| Nolan Arenado | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Juan Yepez | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Andrew Knizner | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -210 |
Red Sox vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Juan Yepez | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Andrew Knizner | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -130 |
Red Sox vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | 3.5 -105 | 3.5 -125 |
| Paxton | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +110 |
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 68% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 59% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 away games (+4.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.85 Units / 32% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 38 games (+14.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 25 games (+12.95 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 38 games (+11.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 32 games (+7.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 27 games (+5.80 Units / 19% ROI)
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 15-23 against the Run Line (-11.2 Units / -23.31% ROI).
- 13-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.9 Units / -38.45% ROI
- 19-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.95 Units / -2.26% ROI
- 18-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.85 Units / -6.84% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 22-16 against the Run Line (+4.35 Units / 8.9% ROI).
- 22-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.2 Units / 19.09% ROI
- 25-12 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.95 Units / 28.9% ROI
- 12-25 when betting on the total runs Under for -16 Units / -37.69% ROI
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adam Wainwright has averaged 88.4 MPH on fastballs since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 16% (85/539) against Adam Wainwright since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Adam Wainwright has thrown breaking pitches 58% of the time (388/663) when behind in the count since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Adam Wainwright has averaged 72.7 MPH on curveballs since last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 79.3 — sixth Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
James Paxton has limited playing time.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Cardinals are just 9-3 (.750) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .893.
The Cardinals are 20-5 (.800) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are just 3-21 (.125) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Cardinals are just 13-22 (.371) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Red Sox are 11-13 (.458) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .202.
The Red Sox are 17-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .893.
The Red Sox are 7-7 (.500) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Red Sox are 4-15 (.211) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .107.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have 285 extra-base hits out of 678 total hits (42%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .804 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .585.
Cardinals hitters have just 1,197 strikeouts in 5,946 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Cardinals have a winning percentage of just 31% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .279 at home since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .459 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .353.
The Red Sox are batting .379 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% with runners in scoring position since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers in 2022 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 23 of 335 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Red Sox have have still managed to win 56% of the time this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.33 (783.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.04.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Red Sox vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D60
- Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Knee, D15
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Hamstring, D10
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Oblique, D15
- Patrick Naughton (Cardinals): Forearm, D15
- Wilking RodrÃguez (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Jacob Woodford (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Back, D10
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