Celtics vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, May 27

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 27, 2023, 5:30 PM
  • The Celtics are -2.5 favorites vs. the Heat
  • Total (Over/Under): 210.5 points
  • Saturday, May 27, 2023 at 8:30pm EDT
  • Watch the game on TNT

The Boston Celtics visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30pm EDT in Miami.

The Celtics are betting favorites in this NBA playoff matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).

The Celtics vs Heat Over/Under is 209.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Celtics are 55-44 against the spread, while the Heat are 43-55 against the spread.


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Celtics vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Boston Celtics-2.5 -110O 209.5 -110-140
Miami Heat +2.5 -110U 209.5 -110+115

Heat vs Celtics Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Celtics will win Saturday‘s game with 58.5% confidence.

Heat vs Celtics Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Celtics will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 53.9% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Celtics and Heat, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 64 of their last 97 games (+27.19 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 58 of their last 100 games (+11.35 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 1H Moneyline in 34 of their last 47 games (+10.25 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 12 away games (+9.85 Units / 74% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 12 away games (+9.69 Units / 65% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 23 games (+21.90 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 4Q Spread in 52 of their last 84 games (+17.32 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 2H Moneyline in 23 of their last 33 games (+16.04 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 30 of their last 45 games at home (+14.55 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 17 of their last 28 games (+10.40 Units / 27% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Celtics have gone 55-44 (+6.6 Units / 6.01% ROI).

  • 67-33 against the Moneyline (-43.3 Units / -12.84% ROI)
  • 53-46 against the Over for game total points (+2.4 Units / 2.18% ROI)
  • 46-53 against the Under for game total points (-12.3 Units / -11.18% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 43-55 (-17.5 Units / -15.9% ROI).

  • 56-44 against the Moneyline (+3.3 Units / 1.8% ROI)
  • 51-48 against the Over for game total points (-1.8 Units / -1.64% ROI)
  • 48-51 against the Under for game total points (-8.1 Units / -7.36% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 39 of their last 93 games (-20.92 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 42 of their last 100 games (-20.80 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 44 of their last 100 games (-18.60 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the Spread in 43 of their last 100 games (-17.50 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 37 of their last 81 games (-16.75 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 74 games (-53.40 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 34 of their last 99 games (-39.42 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 51 of their last 99 games (-32.10 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 41 of their last 100 games (-24.52 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only covered the 1Q Spread in 27 of their last 74 games (-22.35 Units / -27% ROI)

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Boston Celtics: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Celtics are 22-1 (.957) when shooting 50% or better from the field this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .733

The Celtics are 48-4 (.923) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .724

The Celtics are 39-16 (.709) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .568

The Celtics are 40-14 (.741) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .538

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Boston Celtics

The Heat are 57-14 (.803) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2020-21 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .721

The Heat are 93-51 (.646) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line since the start of the 2020-21 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Heat are 54-26 (.675) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2021-22 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .548

The Heat are 64-26 (.711) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .565

Injury Report: Heat vs. CelticsSaturday‘s Game, May 27

  • Victor Oladipo (Heat): Oladipo suffered a torn patellar tendon in his left knee, according to Shams Charania of The Athetic.
  • Tyler Herro (Heat): Herro has been cleared to resume non-contact basketball activities, according to a report from the Florida Sun-Sentinel.
  • Gabe Vincent (Heat): Vincent is QUESTIONABLE for Saturday’s (May 27) game against Boston.
  • Danilo Gallinari (Celtics): Gallinari is still rehabbing his torn ACL with hopes of returning in the playoffs according to the Boston Herald.
  • Malcolm Brogdon (Celtics): Brogdon is QUESTIONABLE for Saturday’s (May.27) game against Miami.

Boston Celtics Offensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.1 (1,087 assists/ 527 TOs) on the road this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Celtics have made 16.0 three-pointers per game this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.3

The Celtics have made 14.9 three-pointers per game on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.2

The Celtics shot 38% from three (972/2,594) in the 2020-21 season — tied for 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 37%

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 107.5 points per game (4,408 points/41 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4

The Heat have averaged 52.5 points per game (4,308 points/82 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

The Heat have averaged 109.5 points per game (8,977 points/82 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7

The Heat have averaged 42.8 points in the paint per game (3,508 points/82 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 48.4

Boston Celtics Defensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have averaged 38.0 defensive rebounds per game (3,112 rebounds/82 games) this season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Celtics have averaged 7.0 steals per game (1,659 steals/236 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Celtics have averaged 6.4 steals per game (521 steals/82 games) this season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Celtics have blocked 431 shots this season — 6th most among NBA teams

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (508 blocks/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (794 blocks/236 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (400 blocks/118 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.