Below, bettors can find Champions League odds and a Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid prediction.
Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid: Champions League Odds
Atletico Madrid vs Liverpool Prediction
If Atletico Madrid fails to start Alexander Sorloth and Julian Alvarez, my Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid prediction is the Liverpool Moneyline (-135).Â
I find this matchup fascinating. Strength meets strength – Liverpool’s attack vs. Atletico’s defense – while weakness meets weakness – Atletico’s attack vs. Liverpool’s defense.
Part of me is intrigued by under 2.5 goals at a better price (+120). While the defense lacks quality, it could represent a buy-low spot against an overrated Atletico attack.
Diego Simeone’s side closed a market favorite in their first three La Liga matches. The attack combined to score seven goals, but it wildly overperformed its underlying metrics.
On Matchday 1, Atletico scored two goals off 0.9 xG. Their two goals combined for 0.15 xG compared to 1.6 post-shot xG. Translation: screamers found unlikely goalmouth placements.
Against Villarreal, Atletico scored twice off 0.8 xG & post-shot xG. Then it traveled to Sevilla as a -110 road favorite, scoring three goals off 0.9 xG and 1.2 post-shot xG.
It comes as Atletico deals with key absentees in attack. Sorloth suffered a preseason injury and likely misses this match. Alvarez sought a transfer, which he didn’t receive, and isn’t playing.
Meanwhile, Atletico’s defense offers a slight mystery. The unit performed well against Sevilla, but it’s not a huge achievement. Last year, Sevilla ranked 19th in La Liga expected goals.
Against Villarreal, the metrics are a tad misleading. The visitors scored twice in Madrid, but both goals came via penalty kicks. Additionally, Atletico played down a man for the final 25 minutes.
What’s concerning is that before any of those happenings, Atletico allowed 1.4 xG and 0.7 post-shot xG in the first half.
The attacking issues render Atletico Madrid a bad team from a negative game state. Unless the lucky attacking metrics continue, it’s my expectation Atletico’s unbeaten run ends at Anfield.
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