Below, bettors can find Champions League odds and a Napoli vs Arsenal prediction.
Napoli vs Arsenal: Champions League Odds
Arsenal vs Napoli Prediction
Based on Arsenal’s success at Inter Milan in last year’s Champions League and Napoli’s weaker metrics, my Napoli vs Arsenal prediction is the Arsenal Moneyline (-120).
Only one real concern exists here for potential Arsenal backers. The match offers a tricky sandwich spot from a scheduling standpoint.
Arsenal faces Chelsea in a pivotal Premier League home fixture on Sunday, followed by the trip to Italy on Wednesday. They’ll return to England for a Saturday trip to Sunderland.
How Mikel Arteta prioritizes those fixtures remains to be seen. That said, there is a case for optimism based on Arsenal’s performance against Serie A side Inter Milan last January.
Despite rotating in midfield and defense, Arsenal throttled the eventual Italian champions. The EPL winners captured a 3-1 win at the San Siro while dominating the underlying metrics.
Expected goals finished 2.1-1.4 in Arsenal’s favor. Big scoring chances finished 3-1 for the visitors, while post-shot xG rated the match a 3.23-0.97 victory for Arsenal.
Arteta’s side achieved that win as a +160 favorite on the three-way moneyline. Now they’re facing a Napoli side miles behind Inter in actual quality.
Just in Serie A last year, Inter Milan finished with a +51.2 expected goal differential. It comes out to a +1.35 xGDiff per match.
Napoli finished a spot behind in the standings despite a +16.13 expected goal differential, per Understat. In fact, Napoli ranked seventh in expected points during last year’s domestic season.
Key midfielder Scott McTominay will miss Wednesday’s match after Napoli produced a bad result vs Como. On August 30, Napoli lost 2-1 with a -1.16 post-shot xGDiff.
Against a better Arsenal side, I predict the hosts will drop all three points on Matchday 1.
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