Chargers vs 49ers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL Preseason

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(AP Photo/Kyusung Gong)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 23, 2023, 2:19 PM
  • The 49ers are -6.5 point favorites vs the Chargers
  • Total (Over/Under): 37.5 points
  • Watch the game on NFL Network

The Los Angeles Chargers visit Levi’s Stadium to take on the San Francisco 49ers on Aug. 25. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:00pm EDT in Santa Clara.

The 49ers are betting favorites in this preseason matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-105).

The Chargers vs. 49ers Over/Under is 37.5 total points for the game.

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Chargers vs. 49ers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Chargers+6.5 -11537.5 -110+200
49ers -6.5 -10537.5 -110-250

Chargers vs. 49ers Prediction

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the 49ers will win this preseason game with 56.9% confidence.

Chargers vs 49ers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the 49ers will cover the spread with 53.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Chargers and 49ers, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Chargers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chargers players this preseason game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Gerald Everett has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.35 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Justin Herbert has hit the TD Passes Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+6.50 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Josh Palmer has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 79% ROI)
  • Justin Herbert has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.55 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Justin Herbert has hit the Passing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.70 Units / 51% ROI)

Best 49ers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for 49ers players for this preseason matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • George Kittle has hit the Longest Reception Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.55 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Jauan Jennings has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Christian McCaffrey has hit the Carries Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.95 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Christian McCaffrey has hit the Longest Rush Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.10 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Deebo Samuel has hit the Longest Reception Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.40 Units / 51% ROI)

Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Chargers went 1-0 (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).

  • Chargers are 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.2 Units / 120% ROI
  • Chargers are 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
  • Chargers are 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / ROI

49ers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL preseason, the 49ers went 0-1 (-1.15 Units / -100% ROI).

  • 49ers are 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -100% ROI
  • 49ers are 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
  • 49ers are 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI

Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the San Francisco 49ers

The Chargers are 6-1 (.857) when averaging more than 5 yards per rush since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .529.

The Chargers were 7-2 (.778) when not losing a fumble in the 2022 season — 7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .577.

The Chargers are winless (0-3) when having a TO margin of -2 or worse since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .123.

The Chargers were 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes in the 2022 season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .544.

San Francisco 49ers: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers

The 49ers are undefeated (14-0) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .547.

The 49ers are 9-3 (.750) vs top 10 pass offenses since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .352.

The 49ers were undefeated (8-0) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns in the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .559.

The 49ers are undefeated (7-0) when committing less than 30 yards in penalties since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .538.

Additional Matchup Notes for Los Angeles Chargers vs. San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers had a third down conversion rate of 29.8% on 3rd and 10+ YTG last season — third-best in NFL. The Chargers defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 27.3% on 3rd and 10+ YTG last season — worst in NFL.

49ers RBs averaged 111.9 rushing yards per game last season — fifth-best in NFL. The Chargers allowed an average of 146.4 rushing yards per game last season — fifth-worst in NFL.

49ers TEs gained 927 yards on 67 receptions (13.8 YPR) last season — best in NFL. The Chargers allowed 13.9 Yards Per Reception to TEs last season — second-worst in NFL.

The Chargers averaged just 4.0 yards per carry last season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL. The 49ers allowed just 3.5 yards per carry last season — tied for best in NFL.

Chargers WRs had 68 receptions in 4 games (17.0 per game) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — fourth-best in NFL. The 49ers allowed 14.0 receptions per game to WRs in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL.

The Chargers averaged just 3.7 yards per carry on rushes to the left side of the field last season — third-worst in NFL. The 49ers allowed just 3.4 yards per carry when defending on rushes to the left last season — best in NFL.

Los Angeles Chargers Offense: Important Stats

The Chargers ran the ball on 34% of plays (386 carries/1,152 plays) in the 2022 season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Chargers have an average drive start position from the 30.1 yard line in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 25.7.

The Chargers ran successful plays on 39% of rush attempts in the 2nd half in the 2022 season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Chargers are averaging 10.2 drives per TD in the 3rd quarter since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.3.

San Francisco 49ers Offense: Important Stats

The 49ers went three and out on 14% of their drives in the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 21%.

The 49ers had 6 TDs that were 20+ yards in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — most in NFL.

The 49ers have completed passes for 20+ yards on 119 of their 1,024 total passing attempts (12%) since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 9%.

The 49ers have faced a blitz 222 times since the 2021 season — fewest in NFL.

Los Angeles Chargers Defense: Important Stats

The Chargers defense allowed an average of 2.3 yards after contact per carry (447 carries) in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.7.

The Chargers defense allowed an average of 2.5 yards after contact per carry (386 carries) to RBs in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.8.

The Chargers defense allowed first downs on 12% of pass attempts on 3rd down in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 37%.

The Chargers defense allowed successful plays on 58% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

San Francisco 49ers Defense: Important Stats

The 49ers defense allowed just 15.2 points per game to opposing offenses (259 points / 17 games) in the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 20.8.

The 49ers defense allowed scores on 26% of opponent drives in the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 36%.

The 49ers defense allowed successful plays on 27% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter in the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The 49ers defense allowed 16.4 Points per Game (279/17) in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 21.8.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.