Chiefs at Broncos: Post-Loss NFL Betting Trends for Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson

min read
Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes will face off this Sunday.
(AP Photo/Jeff Dean, Patrick Semansky)
Andrew Doughty @DoughtyBetMGM Dec 08, 2022, 10:30 AM
  • Both the Chiefs and Broncos lost in Week 13.
  • Mahomes has six straight wins following a loss.
  • Wilson's post-loss struggles began last season.

One week after a home loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 6, Patrick Mahomes threw for 423 yards and three touchdowns in a win over the San Francisco 49ers in Week 7.

It was Mahomes’ sixth straight win – dating back to October 2021 – after a loss in the Chiefs’ previous game. And in comfortably covering -1 as a road favorite, it was his second straight cover – and seventh in 10 games dating back to October 2019 – after a loss in the previous game.

Post-Loss NFL Betting Trends

Entering this weekend’s game against the Denver Broncos – one week after a loss to the Cincinnati Bengals – the Chiefs are 12-3 outright and 9-6 against the spread with Mahomes as starting quarterback after a loss in their previous game. 

Mahomes’ Week 14 counterpart, Russell Wilson, began his career with similar post-loss success. A decade later, Wilson is having no such success. But the struggles began last year in Seattle, not upon his arrival in Denver.

Wilson won 23 of his first 27 post-loss starts with the Seattle Seahawks and won nearly 80% of his post-loss starts (34-9 for a moneyline ROI of +22.8%) from 2012-20, the best rate among all quarterbacks with at least 20 starts. 

The Seahawks also covered the spread in approximately 67% of those opportunities (26-13-4 for an ROI of +28%), tying Wilson for the fourth-best rate.

But since last year (25 starts), Wilson has as many post-loss moneyline losses (nine) as he did in his first nine years (154 starts). And he has the number of post-loss ATS losses (eight) since 2021 as he did in the five previous years.

Russell Wilson Post-Loss Moneyline

YearML RecordROI
20124-167.5%
20133-019.8%
20143-14.7%
20154-210.5%
20165-024.3%
20175-132.1%
20184-219.9%
20193-13.3%
20203-114.1%
20213-4-19%
20222-5-54.3%

Russell Wilson Post-Loss Spread

YearATS RecordROI
20124-158.7%
20132-134.4%
20142-2-1.4%
20154-230.5%
20163-1-134.9%
20173-2-115.9%
20184-1-146.8%
20191-2-1-26.4%
20203-146.7%
20213-4-17.2%
20223-4-17.8%

Wilson and the Broncos did cover the spread in Week 13 against the Baltimore Ravens – one week after a loss to the Carolina Panthers – but lost outright in their third straight post-loss game. 

As of Wednesday in NFL odds, the Chiefs are a 9.5-point road favorite over the Broncos. Wilson has never been a home underdog of at least eight points in his 11-year career.

Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction

Historically, even when the Broncos are struggling, they’ve presented problems to the Chiefs, including last year’s loss in Kansas City when they held Mahomes to zero touchdown passes and fewer than 200 yards for the first time in his career.

I don’t see history repeating itself on Sunday afternoon. I like Mahomes’ post-loss ATS and moneyline trends to continue as the Chiefs avoid just their second two-game losing streak in the last three seasons.

Chiefs 27, Broncos 13

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About the Author

Andrew Doughty

Read More @DoughtyBetMGM

Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM with a focus on college football, NFL, college basketball, and NASCAR. A graduate of the University of Kansas, he previously wrote for Sports Illustrated and HERO Sports.

Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM with a focus on college football, NFL, college basketball, and NASCAR. A graduate of the University of Kansas, he previously wrote for Sports Illustrated and HERO Sports.