Two AFC North matchups will take place in Week 12. One will be the Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-4) on Sunday afternoon.
After last week, the two teams traded places in the playoff picture. NFL betting odds now place the Bengals as the home favorite.
How many points can they score this week?
Playoff Potential of the Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals have been somewhat of an up-and-down team this season. However, they won a big game last week on the road against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Joe Burrow went 20-for-29 with 148 passing yards and a touchdown. RB Joe Mixon carried the ball 30 times for 123 yards and two rushing scores.
Ja’Marr Chase averaged slightly under 11 yards per catch on only three receptions, but one was for a touchdown.
Burrow connected with nine different receivers in the Bengals’ 32-13 victory over the Raiders. The bye week seemed to help the team recover after brutal losses to the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns.
The Bengals are the fifth seed in the AFC and have a decent shot at making the playoffs.
Bengals’ Offensive Production
After ten games, the Bengals have averaged nearly 27 points per game. The last time they played the Steelers, they put up 24 points on the road.
They are ninth in the league at scoring, but they are 16th for points per game at home.
The Steelers have given up almost 23 points per matchup so far this season. So they’ll need to lean on their defense this week to stop the Bengals.
Pittsburgh is ranked 15th at passing defense, and they are 26th for rushing defense (yards allowed per game).
While the matchup should be competitive this week, the Bengals are heavily favored for the money line (-190). Their point spread (-4.5) might come down a bit, however.
The current over-under for the Steelers at Bengals is 45.
It should be a close game.
Steelers vs. Bengals
If the Bengals can establish some success on the ground against the Steelers, that should set up some big plays through the air.
This is one of the most important games of the season for the Bengals. So, I expect them to take plenty of shots downfield.
Burrow has been stunningly accurate this season, with a 68.3 completion percentage. He averages 264.5 yards passing per game and has thrown 21 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions.
His longest touchdown pass came from back in Week 7 when the Bengals routed the Ravens on their home turf, 41-17.
On third-and-two, Burrow threw a short pass to Chase on a quick slant. Chase broke out of two tackles amidst four Ravens and escaped for an 82-yard score.
The Steelers are going to have their hands full with the Bengals’ receiving corps. Unfortunately, they’ve also shown vulnerability against stopping the run.
In alternative odds, the over 24.5 for the Bengals offers -110 odds, while the under is -115.
I’d be willing to wager over 26.5 for Cincinnati at +105. I think there’s value for them to score 27 points at home against their divisional rival. Unfortunately, I don’t believe that Pittsburgh’s secondary can stop the Bengals for all four quarters.
It’s going to be an exciting game.
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