This weekend’s slate of NCAA football games offers some exciting matchups that could dramatically impact the College Football Playoffs.
The Week 11 NCAAF betting lines are out on BetMGM, and a few of this week’s games jump out at me.
What are they? Read below to find out.
Penn State (-1) vs. Michigan
The first line that jumps out at me is Penn State as a one-point favorite against Michigan. It surprises me because the Wolverines are ranked in the top 10 among college football playoff contenders, whereas Penn State was not featured in last week’s CFP rankings.
This season, the Nittany Lions hit a low point when they lost three straight games, including a devastating home upset loss to Illinois.
So, what makes Penn State a worthy pick here? They have been tested already with challenging games against Wisconsin, Auburn, Iowa, and Ohio State. All four of those games were decided by single digits.
Also, Penn State’s defense matches up well with Michigan, with both teams averaging fewer than 17 points allowed per game. The Nittany Lions are significantly better at passing the ball than running, while the Wolverines lead the Big Ten in rushing yards per game.
If Penn State pulls off this win, it will have to be through the air.
Minnesota (+6) at Iowa
People might think that I am crazy for saying that Minnesota is one of the better options on the board this week after they just lost to Illinois at home, but I would respond by saying to look closer.
It is already a red flag that a ranked team is less than a touchdown favorite against an unranked team at home. But, one thing you might notice is that Minnesota is 3-0 ATS as a road team this year.
Also, Iowa has the worst offense in the Big Ten, ranking last in the conference in total yards per game with just 299.
Iowa is more known for their defense, but Minnesota stacks right up with them, allowing five fewer yards per game. On top of that, Iowa has only scored 54 points in their last four games.
Considering the Hawkeyes’ track record against statistically good defenses in the conference, do not be surprised if they struggle to score points against Minnesota.
Nevada (+2.5) at San Diego State
This game will be a clash between the Mountain West’s best offense and the Mountain West’s best defense.
Nevada averages about 36 points per game, while San Diego State averages about 28. On defense, the Aztecs allow the fewest points per game in the conference with just under 17, while Nevada gives up about 24 points per game.
Something will have to give. I believe that Nevada’s offense may be too much for San Diego State this week.
See More of the Best College Bets
I believe that these are the best college bets for Week 11. Do you agree with these picks, or are you eyeing other games?
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