5 College Football Betting Trends for Week 11

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JOsh Heupel
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Andrew Doughty @DoughtyBetMGM Nov 10, 2021, 6:52 PM

Week 11 college football betting began with two high-scoring MACtion games on Tuesday night and will end with Nevada seeking their seventh ATS win of the season (at San Diego State) on Saturday night.

Here are five college football betting trends for Week 11 (odds as of Wednesday, Nov. 10):

SEC Home Dogs

South Carolina’s demolition of Florida (-17.5) in Week 10 was the second outright win for an SEC underdog of at least 17 points this season. Texas A&M accomplished the feat against Alabama (-18.5) in Week 6.

Those are also the only two covers by home SEC underdogs in of at least 17 points in conference games this season and two of only 23 covers since 2007.

Over the last 15 years, SEC home dogs of at least 17 points in conference games are 23-36 (.390) against the spread, the worst mark among all Power Five conferences and the second-worst mark among all FBS conferences (MAC, 10-24).

Tennessee is +20.5 against Georgia on Saturday.

Texas Kansas is Back

Kansas ended a four-game ATS skid with a cover against Oklahoma (-38) in Week 8. They followed it up with a 52-point loss to Oklahoma State (-28.5) and a 25-point loss to Kansas State (-24) and have covered in two of their last 17 conference games. And they’re 42-66 (.389) ATS in Big 12 games since 2009.

Against Texas, however, they’re 6-4 ATS since 2009 and have covered in four straight against the Longhorns, including the near-upset in 2019 as a 20-point dog. And Texas is riding a four-game conference ATS losing streak.

The Jayhawks visit Texas (-30.5) on Saturday. 

Texas Starts Strong

Texas’ four-game ATS losing streak in conference games has dropped their conference ATS record to 18-22-2 since 2017. Only Kansas and TCU have a worse record over that team.

The Longhorns have, however, been dominant against first-half spreads over that time. They’re riding an eight-game first-half ATS winning streak and are 27-14-1 since 2017. Only Alabama has more first-half ATS wins over that time.

The first-half spread for Kansas-Texas will be available closer to Saturday’s game.

Big Favorite, Low Total

In demolishing Rutgers, 52-3, in Week 10, Wisconsin comfortably covered the 13-point spread and delivered another ATS win for favorites in games with a low total.

It was the sixth game this season with a spread of at least 12 points and a total of 45 or lower. And it was the fourth cover for favorites in those spots, improving their record to 20-6 ATS since 2016.

Wisconsin is a 24.5-point favorite against Northwestern in Week 11. The total is 40.5.

Offensively Challenged Teams

This one is delightfully dumb.

Southern Miss is riding a seven-game losing streak after a season-opening win over Grambling for first-year head coach Will Hall. In each of those seven games, the Golden Eagles have failed to score at least 20 points. And they’ve failed to score more than 14 points in each of their last four games.

In the last three seasons, the under is 5-0 for games in which the away team has scored 14 or fewer points in at least four straight games.

The total for Southern Miss-UTSA is 54.5.

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About the Author

Andrew Doughty

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Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM with a focus on college football, NFL, college basketball, and NASCAR. A graduate of the University of Kansas, he previously wrote for Sports Illustrated and HERO Sports.

Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM with a focus on college football, NFL, college basketball, and NASCAR. A graduate of the University of Kansas, he previously wrote for Sports Illustrated and HERO Sports.