5 College Football Betting Trends for Week 9

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(Photo by Jamie Lamor Thompson/Shutterstock)
Andrew Doughty @DoughtyBetMGM Oct 28, 2021, 8:12 PM

Week 9 college football betting began with two Group of Five games on Thursday night and will end with four games, including UCLA at Utah, on Saturday night.

Here are five betting trends for Week 9 (college football odds as of Thursday, Oct. 28):

Ohio State First Half

C.J. Stroud connected with TreVeyon Henderson on a 14-yard touchdown pass to extend Ohio State’s lead over Indiana to 14 points with 12 minutes remaining in the first half of their Week 8 game. If that margin held for the rest of the half, the Buckeyes would cover the first-half spread of -11.5.

It held; Ohio State added three more touchdowns and a safety for a 44-7 halftime lead.

It was their fourth straight first-half ATS win and 19th first-half ATS win since Ryan Day became head coach in 2019. The Buckeyes are 19-7 against first-half spreads over that time.

Ohio State is a 10-point first-half favorite against Penn State in Week 9.

Longhorns as Underdogs

From December 2015 through November 2018, Texas was one of the best underdog bets in college football. Over that time, the Longhorns were 10-3-1 against the spread when they weren’t favored.

Since then, Texas has been one of the best underdog fade bets in college football. Starting with a failed cover against Oklahoma on Dec. 1, 2018, they are 3-7 ATS and have covered just once in their last five opportunities.

The Longhorns are +2.5 against Baylor on Saturday.

Home Dog, Low Total

Syracuse was a 13.5-point home underdog against Clemson in a Week 7 game with a total of 44. The Orange comfortably covered in the 17-14 loss, further continuing a dramatic trend reversal from previous seasons.

From 2005 through mid-November 2020, home underdogs of at least seven points in games with a total of 44 or lower were 54-82-5 against the spread. Since late November 2020, home dogs are 7-2 ATS in those spots.

Northwestern is +7.5 at home against Minnesota on Saturday. The total is 43.5 points, the fourth-lowest of Week 9.

Big Friday Night Favorites

Cincinnati obliterated Temple, 52-3, on Friday, Oct. 8, easily covering the 30-point spread.

It was the 45th game on Friday night since 2017 with a favorite at least 20 points. And those favorites are 28-15-2 ATS.

Nevada will have a chance to push the record to 29-15-2 when they host UNLV as 20-point favorites on Friday night.

Big Totals

Thirty-six games had a total of at least 70 points last season. The over went 20-15-1, giving the over an above-.500 record for the first time since 2015. From 2016-19, the over hit in just 95 of 223 opportunities.

The over is once again struggling with big totals in 2021. Entering Week 9, there have been 15 games with a total of at least 70 points. The over is 4-11, including only one over in the last five opportunities.

There are two big totals this weekend: Duke at Wake Forest (70) and Charlotte at Western Kentucky (73).

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About the Author

Andrew Doughty

Read More @DoughtyBetMGM

Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM and host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Apple Podcasts and everywhere else.

Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM and host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Apple Podcasts and everywhere else.