Air Force vs Baylor Prediction, Odds, Prop Bets: Armed Forces Bowl

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 22, 2022, 10:25 AM
  • Baylor (6-6) are -6.5 point favorites vs Air Force (9-3)
  • Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
  • Watch the Armed Forces Bowl game on ESPN

The Baylor Bears (9-3) visit Amon G. Carter Stadium to take on the Air Force Falcons (6-6) on Dec. 22. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Fort Worth for the Armed Forces Bowl.

Baylor are betting favorites in Week 17, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).

The Air Force vs. Baylor Over/Under is 43.5 total points.

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Air Force vs. Baylor Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Air Force+3.5 -11043.5 -110+150
Baylor -3.5 -11043.5 -110-185

Air Force vs Baylor Prediction:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Baylor will win this game with 67.3% confidence.

Air Force vs Baylor Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Air Force will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Air Force and Baylor, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Air Force Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Air Force players for Week 17, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ben Sims has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Hal Presley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Blake Shapen has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 73% ROI)
  • Blake Shapen has hit the TD Passes Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.10 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Baylor has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 94% ROI)
  • Baylor have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 9 away games (+6.90 Units / 69% ROI)
  • Baylor has hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.25 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Baylor have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Baylor has hit the Game Total Over in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • Air Force have covered the 1Q Spread in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.89 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Air Force has hit the 1H Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+6.35 Units / 8% ROI)
  • Air Force has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games (+5.85 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Air Force have covered the Spread in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.20 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Air Force has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.15 Units / 64% ROI)

Air Force Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Air Force has gone 6-5 against the spread this college football season (+0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI).

  • Air Force is 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.75 Units / -19.23% ROI
  • Air Force is 7-4 when betting the Over for +2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI
  • Air Force is 4-7 when betting the Under for -3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI

Baylor Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Baylor has gone 6-6 against the spread this college football season (-0.55 Units / -4.17% ROI).

  • Baylor is 8-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.9 Units / -5.11% ROI
  • Baylor is 5-7 when betting the Over for -2.7 Units / -20.38% ROI
  • Baylor is 7-5 when betting the Under for +1.55 Units / 11.79% ROI

Air Force: Keys to the Game vs. Baylor

Baylor is 8-4 (.533) when passing for more than 200 yards since the 2021 season– 15th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .415

Baylor is 8-6 (.571) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2021 season– tied for 10th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .380

Baylor is undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2021 season– tied for best in FBS; Average: .559

Baylor is 6-2 (.750) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2021 season– tied for 10th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .572

Baylor: Keys to the Game vs. Air Force

Air Force is 10-2 (.769) when not losing a fumble since the 2021 season– tied for 8th-best in FBS; Average: .510

Air Force is undefeated (7-0) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2021 season– tied for best in FBS; Average: .571

Air Force is 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush — tied for 9th-best in FBS; Average: .578

Matchup Notes for Air Force vs. Baylor

Air Force’s QBs has thrown for 839 passing yards in 12 games (just 69.9 YPG) this season — worst among FBS teams. Baylor’s defense has allowed just 242.3 passing yards per game this season — fourth-best among Big 12 defenses.

Air Force has gained 782 yards on 35 receptions (22.3 YPR) this season — second-best among FBS skill players. Baylor’s defense has allowed just 11.5 Yards Per Reception this season — fifth-best among Big 12 defenses.

Air Force have just 65.2 receiving yards per game this season — worst among FBS skill players. Baylor’s defense has allowed just 228.1 receiving yards per game this season — fourth-best among Big 12 defenses.

Baylor’s offense has 28 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for second-most among FBS offenses. Air Force’s defense has allowed 5 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for second-fewest among NonP5 defenses.

Baylor’s offense has 28 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for second-most among FBS offenses. Air Force’s defense has allowed 9 rushing TDs this season — fifth-fewest among NonP5 defenses.

Baylor’s RBs has 21 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for second-most among FBS RBs. Air Force’s defense has allowed 5 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for second-fewest among NonP5 defenses.

Air Force Offensive Stats & Trends

Baylor WRs have averaged 19.0 yards per reception (815 yards/43 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 12.4

Baylor WRs have averaged 19.0 yards per reception (815 yards/43 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since last season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.2

Baylor RBs have rushed for 11 TDs in the 4th quarter this season– most among FBS Teams

Baylor RBs have averaged 6.4 Yards per Carry (1,353 yards/211 carries) in the 4th quarter since last season– 3rd best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

Baylor Skill Players have averaged 15.1 yards per reception (634 yards/42 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– 5th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.6

Baylor Offensive Stats & Trends

Air Force Skill Players have averaged just 2.9 receptions per game (35/12) this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 19.1

Air Force WRs have averaged 25.5 yards per reception (715 yards/28 catches) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.1

Air Force WRs have averaged just 2.9 receptions per game (72/25) since last season– 3rd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.9

Air Force WRs have been targeted 4.2 times per game (50/12) this season– lowest among FBS Teams; Average: 21.2

Air Force Skill Players have averaged 18.4 yards per reception (551 yards/30 catches) in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.1

Baylor Bears Defensive Stats & Trends

Baylor has sacked opposing QBs just once on 81 pass attempts in the Red Zone since last season– 4th worst in FBS; Average: 16.0

Baylor has sacked opposing QBs just once on 81 pass attempts in the Red Zone since last season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16.4

Baylor has allowed first downs on 73% of pass attempts on 3rd and short since last season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 51%

Baylor has tackled opponents for a loss on just 13 of 150 rushing attempts (9% TFL%) in the Red Zone since last season– 5th worst in FBS; Average: 15%.

Baylor has tackled opponents for a loss on just 4 of 79 rushing attempts (5% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd worst in FBS; Average: 15%.

Air Force Falcons Defensive Stats & Trends

Air Force has allowed 17 TDs this season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 3.2

Air Force has allowed 257.3 yards from scrimmage per game this season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 383.7

Air Force has allowed 8 TDs in the Red Zone this season– tied for best in FBS; Average: 2.1

Air Force has allowed 8 TDs in the Red Zone this season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 2.1

Air Force has allowed 17 TDs this season– tied for 4th best in FBS; Average: 3.1


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.