- Baylor is a -15.5 point favorite vs. Air Force
- Air Force vs. Baylor Total(Over/Under): 41.5 points
- TV Channel: FS1
The Air Force Falcons (1-1) visit McLane Stadium to take on the Baylor Bears (1-1) on Sep. 14 in Waco, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT.
Baylor is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -15.5 (-110).
The Air Force vs. Baylor Over/Under is 41.5 total points.
Bet now on Baylor vs Air Force & all NCAAF games with BetMGM
Air Force vs. Baylor Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Air Force | +15.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +525 |
| Baylor | -15.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -750 |
Air Force vs Baylor Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Baylor will win this game with 84.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Air Force and Baylor, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Air Force vs Baylor Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Baylor will cover the spread with 67.4% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Baylor vs Air Force and all games with BetMGM
Air Force Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Air Force has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 5 away games (+5.05 Units / 84% ROI)
- Air Force has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- Air Force has hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 4 away games (+1.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- Air Force have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
Baylor Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Baylor has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Baylor has hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Baylor has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+1.90 Units / 24% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Air Force players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Air Force Player Prop Bets Today
- Jared Roznos has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Baylor players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Baylor Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Dominic Richardson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Sawyer Robertson has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 95% ROI)
- Monaray Baldwin has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game at home (+1.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Richard Reese has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Sawyer Robertson has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 51% ROI)
Air Force Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Air Force is 0-2 against the spread this college football season (-2.2 Units / -100% ROI).
- Air Force is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.4 Units / -100% ROI
- Air Force is 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
- Air Force is 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
Baylor Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Baylor is 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Baylor is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
- Baylor is 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
- Baylor is 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
Air Force: Keys to the Game vs. Baylor
Air Force is winless (0-6) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2022 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .358
Air Force is winless (0-4) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .327
Air Force is 7-3 (.700) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-34th-best in FBS; Average: .566
Air Force is 6-3 (.667) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-33rd-best in FBS; Average: .496
Baylor: Keys to the Game vs. Air Force
Baylor is winless (0-10) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .353
Baylor is winless (0-11) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .395
Baylor is 1-8 (.091) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 5th-worst in FBS; Average: .517
Baylor is 1-10 (.091) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– 6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .411
Matchup Notes for Air Force vs. Baylor
Baylor’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.3% of 49 attempts this season — T-31st-best among FBS offenses. Air Force’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 4.8% of attempts this season — T-29th-worst among FBS defenses.
Baylor’s QBs has rushed for 26 yards on 19 carries (just 1.4 YPC) this season — T-28th-worst among FBS teams. Air Force’s defense have allowed just 2.7 YPC this season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.
Richard Reese (BAY) has rushed for 93 yards on 27 carries (just 3.4 YPC) this season — T-3rd-worst of Qualified Big 12 Running Backs. Air Force’s defense have allowed just 2.7 YPC this season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.
Air Force’s TEs has 0 receptions in 2 games (just 0.0 per game) this season — T-worst among FBS TEs. Baylor’s defense has allowed just 9.5 receptions per game this season — 6th-best among FBS defenses.
Air Force’s offense has thrown for 125 passing yards in 2 games (just 62.5 YPG) this season — 2nd-worst among FBS offenses. Baylor’s defense has allowed just 101.0 passing yards per game this season — 2nd-best among Big 12 defenses.
Air Force’s offense has thrown for 125 passing yards in 2 games (just 62.5 YPG) this season — 2nd-worst among FBS offenses. Baylor’s defense has allowed just 101.0 passing yards per game this season — 9th-best among FBS defenses.
Air Force Offensive Stats & Trends
Air Force Skill Players have averaged just 3.6 receptions per game (98/27) since the 2022 season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 19.0
Air Force Skill Players have averaged 18.7 yards per reception (1,234 yards/66 catches) since the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.1
Air Force WRs have averaged 22.2 yards per reception (1,066 yards/48 catches) since the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.3
Air Force Skill Players have been targeted 7.2 times per game (194/27) since the 2022 season– lowest among FBS Teams; Average: 29.8
Air Force WRs have averaged 25.2 yards per reception (1,815 yards/72 catches) since the 2022 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.3
Baylor Offensive Stats & Trends
Baylor’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.3% of 49 attempts this season — T-31st-best among FBS offenses. Air Force’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 4.8% of attempts this season — T-29th-worst among FBS defenses.
Baylor WRs have averaged a touchdown every 4.5 receptions (9 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-4th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 1.9
Baylor TEs have been targeted 29 times in close and late situations since the 2023 season– most among Power Conference Teams
Baylor TEs have been targeted 29 times in close and late situations since the 2023 season– most among Big 12 Teams
Baylor WRs have averaged 19.2 yards per reception (383 yards/20 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.2
Air Force Falcons Defensive Stats & Trends
Air Force has allowed 113.0 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs since the 2022 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 175.3
Air Force has allowed 264.6 yards from scrimmage per game since the 2022 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 382.5
Air Force has allowed 275.9 yards from scrimmage per game since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 381.1
Air Force has allowed 169.3 Passing Yards per game (4,571/27) since the 2022 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 225.6
Air Force has not allowed any rushing touchdowns on 61 rushes this season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 21.4
Baylor Bears Defensive Stats & Trends
Baylor has not recorded a sack (40 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 14.8
Baylor has not recorded a sack (80 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.9
Baylor has not recorded a sack (40 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.1
Baylor has not recorded a sack (40 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 14.7
Baylor has not recorded a sack (80 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 16.7
Bet now on Baylor vs Air Force and all games with BetMGM
More College Football Betting at BetMGM
BetMGM is the best online sportsbook for college football betting.
Whether you’re a first-time bettor checking out the best sportsbook promos, a casual fan betting on Georgia national championship odds, Tennessee football’s playoff odds, or Ohio State odds, or a longtime diehard breaking down trends for live sports betting, there are entertainment options for everyone.
Visit the sportsbook today to place a college football bet online!
