- The Air Force Falcons are a -5.5 point favorite vs. the Nevada Wolf Pack
- Air Force vs. Nevada Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
- TV Channel: FS1
Air Force (1-1) visit Mackay Stadium to take on Nevada (1-2) on Sep. 26 in Reno, NV. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30 pm.
The Air Force Falcons are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-108).
The Air Force vs. Nevada Over/Under is 50.5 total points.
Bet now on Nevada Wolf Pack vs Air Force Falcons & all NCAAF games with BetMGM
Air Force vs. Nevada Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Air Force | -5.5 -108 | 50.5 -112 | -220 |
| Nevada | +5.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 | +180 |
Air Force vs Nevada Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Air Force will win this game with 55.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Air Force Falcons and the Nevada Wolf Pack, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Air Force vs Nevada Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Air Force will cover the spread with 53.6% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Nevada Wolf Pack vs Air Force Falcons and all games with BetMGM
Air Force Best Bets Today
- Air Force have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+4.00 Units / 70% ROI)
- Air Force has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- Air Force has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+3.75 Units / 71% ROI)
- Air Force have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.05 Units / 56% ROI)
- Air Force have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
Nevada Best Bets Today
- Nevada has hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- Nevada has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Nevada has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.60 Units / 22% ROI)
Air Force Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Air Force Falcons is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Air Force is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Air Force is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Air Force is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Nevada Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Nevada Wolf Pack is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- Nevada is 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.75 Units / -45.45% ROI
- Nevada is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Nevada is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Air Force: Keys to the Game vs. Nevada
Air Force is 1-5 (.167) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team this season– T-11th-worst in FBS; Average: .531
Air Force was 1-6 (.143) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards last season– T-21st-worst in FBS; Average: .379
Air Force is winless (0-6) when allowing 22 or more points this season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .265
Air Force is 2-6 (.250) when not forcing and recovering a fumble this season– T-25th-worst in FBS; Average: .484
Nevada: Keys to the Game vs. Air Force
Nevada was winless (0-8) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .406
Nevada is winless (0-6) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .438
Nevada was winless (0-8) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .420
Nevada is 1-8 (.111) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– 8th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .413
Matchup Notes for Air Force vs. Nevada
Nevada’s offense threw for 1,784 passing yards in 12 games (just 148.7 YPG) last season — 11th-worst among FBS offenses. Air Force’s defense allowed 279.5 passing yards per game last season — 3rd-worst among FBS defenses.
Nevada’s QBs threw for 1,784 passing yards in 12 games (just 148.7 YPG) last season — 11th-worst among FBS teams. Air Force’s defense allowed 279.5 passing yards per game last season — worst among NonP5 defenses.
Nevada’s WRs has averaged just 10.8 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-9th-worst among FBS WRs. Air Force’s defense has allowed 13.2 RAC since the 2024 season — 7th-worst among FBS defenses.
Air Force’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 19.9% of 146 attempts last season — 2nd-best among FBS offenses. Nevada’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.3% of attempts last season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.
Air Force’s WRs has 65 receptions in 13 games (just 5.0 per game) since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst among FBS WRs. Nevada’s defense has allowed just 11.0 receptions per game to WRs since the 2024 season — 35th-best among FBS defenses.
Air Force’s WRs had just 108.1 receiving yards per game last season — 15th-worst among FBS WRs. Nevada’s defense allowed just 137.0 receiving yards per game to WRs last season — 31st-best among FBS defenses.
Air Force Offensive Stats & Trends
Air Force Skill Players have averaged 18.8 yards per reception (1,581 yards/84 catches) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.8
Air Force TEs averaged 23.8 yards per reception (95 yards/4 catches) last season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.1
Air Force Skill Players averaged 17.2 yards per reception (1,048 yards/61 catches) last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.1
Air Force have averaged just 7.6 receptions per game (84/11) this season– 3rd-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.2
Air Force have averaged 18.8 yards per completion (1,581 yards/84 completions) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.7
Nevada Offensive Stats & Trends
Nevada WRs have averaged a touchdown every 31.7 receptions (95 Rec/3 TDs) this season– 4th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.4
Nevada’s offense threw for 1,784 passing yards in 12 games (just 148.7 YPG) last season — 11th-worst among FBS offenses. Air Force’s defense allowed 279.5 passing yards per game last season — 3rd-worst among FBS defenses.
Nevada RBs averaged 3.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (859 yards / 259 touches) in the 2023 season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.3
Nevada have averaged just 7.9 yards per completion (389 yards/49 completions) on 3rd down this season– 4th-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.8
Nevada RBs averaged just 2.3 Yards per Carry (120 yards/53 carries) in the 4th quarter in the 2023 season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0
Air Force Defensive Stats & Trends
Air Force has allowed 79.5 receiving yards per game (875/11) to RBs this season– worst in FBS; Average: 25.1
Air Force has allowed 8.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (4,783 yards / 551 touches) this season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 6.7
Air Force allowed 79.5 receiving yards per game (875/11) to RBs last season– worst in FBS; Average: 25.1
Air Force allowed 8.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (4,783 yards / 551 touches) last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 6.9
Air Force has allowed 8.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (4,783 yards / 551 touches) this season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 6.9
Nevada Defensive Stats & Trends
Nevada has no interceptions (40 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 30.3
Nevada allowed 29 rushing TDs in the Red Zone last season– most in FBS
Nevada has no interceptions (40 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 31.0
Nevada had no interceptions (0 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 30.3
Nevada allowed 29 rushing TDs in the Red Zone last season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams
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