Air Force vs San Diego State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 26, 2022, 9:00 AM
  • Air Force (8-3) are -2 point favorites vs San Diego State (7-4)
  • Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
  • Watch the game on CBS Sports Network

The Air Force Falcons (9-3) visit Snapdragon Stadium to take on the San Diego State Aztecs (7-5) on Nov. 26. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00pm EST in San Diego.

are betting favorites in Week 13, with the spread sitting at ().

The Air Force vs. San Diego State Over/Under is total points.

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Air Force vs. San Diego State Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 13

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Air Force
San Diego State

Air Force vs San Diego State Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Air Force will win this game with 53.9% confidence.

Air Force vs San Diego State Spread Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts San Diego State will cover the spread with 63.7% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Air Force and San Diego State, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best San Diego State Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for San Diego State players for Week 13, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Braxton Burmeister has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 79% ROI)
  • Braxton Burmeister has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Air Force have covered the 1Q Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.69 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Air Force has hit the 1H Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+6.35 Units / 8% ROI)
  • Air Force has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+4.85 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Air Force have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.20 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Air Force have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 22 games (+4.20 Units / 17% ROI)
  • San Diego State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+10.65 Units / 19% ROI)
  • San Diego State has hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+10.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • San Diego State have covered the 1H Spread in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.15 Units / 30% ROI)
  • San Diego State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+3.60 Units / 26% ROI)
  • San Diego State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 7 games (+3.35 Units / 23% ROI)

Air Force Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Air Force has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Air Force is 7-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.9 Units / -6.53% ROI
  • Air Force is 5-6 when betting the Over for -1.6 Units / -13.17% ROI
  • Air Force is 6-5 when betting the Under for +0.55 Units / 4.56% ROI

San Diego State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

San Diego State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • San Diego State is 6-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.1 Units / 2.81% ROI
  • San Diego State is 5-6 when betting the Over for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI
  • San Diego State is 6-5 when betting the Under for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI

Air Force: Keys to the Game vs. San Diego State

Air Force is undefeated (7-0) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2021 season– tied for best in FBS; Average: .572

Air Force is 9-2 (.750) when not losing a fumble since the 2021 season– tied for 11th-best in FBS; Average: .508

San Diego State: Keys to the Game vs. Air Force

San Diego State is 16-1 (.941) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2021 season– tied for 5th-best in FBS; Average: .563

San Diego State is 7-2 (.700) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2021 season– 15th-best in FBS; Average: .444

San Diego State is 11-1 (.846) when not throwing an interception since the 2021 season– tied for 12th-best in FBS; Average: .581

San Diego State is 11-2 (.846) when in a one score game since the 2021 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: .494

Matchup Notes for Air Force vs. San Diego State

San Diego State’s offense has 4 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — fourth-fewest among FBS offenses. Air Force’s defense has allowed 5 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for second-fewest among NonP5 defenses.

Air Force’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 20.7% of 188 attempts since the 2021 season — second-best among FBS offenses. San Diego State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.5% of attempts since the 2021 season — tied for fifth-worst among NonP5 defenses.

Air Force has gained 1,935 yards on 83 receptions (23.3 YPR) since the 2021 season — best among FBS skill players. San Diego State’s defense has allowed just 10.9 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — tied for second-best among NonP5 defenses.

Air Force’s WRs has gained 1,734 yards on 71 receptions (24.4 YPR) since the 2021 season — best among FBS WRs. San Diego State’s defense has allowed just 10.9 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — tied for second-best among NonP5 defenses.

Air Force Offensive Stats & Trends

Air Force Skill Players have averaged just 3.1 receptions per game (34/11) — worst among FBS Teams; Average: 19.1

Air Force WRs have averaged 24.4 yards per reception (1,734 yards/71 catches) since the 2021 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.3

Air Force WRs have averaged 26.0 yards per reception (701 yards/27 catches) — best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.2

Air Force Skill Players have averaged just 3.5 receptions per game (83/24) since the 2021 season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 19.0

Air Force have completed passes for 20+ yards on 39 of their 188 total passing attempts (21%) since the 2021 season– 2nd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11%

San Diego State Offensive Stats & Trends

San Diego State WRs have averaged just 10.1 yards per reception (547 yards/54 catches) in the 4th quarter since last season– 5th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 13.4

San Diego State RBs have rushed for 5 TDs on 285 carries (57 Carries Per TD) — 5th-worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 21.8

San Diego State RBs have fumbled 13 times since last season– tied for 2nd most among FBS Teams

San Diego State’s offense has 4 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — fourth-fewest among FBS offenses. Air Force’s defense has allowed 5 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for second-fewest among NonP5 defenses.

San Diego State RBs have averaged 4.1 yards from scrimmage per touch (1,524 yards / 370 touches) on 1st down since last season– tied for 4th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4

Air Force Falcons Defensive Stats & Trends

Air Force has allowed 2.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (102 yards / 42 touches) in the Red Zone this season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 3.6

Air Force’s opponents has attempted just 21.5 passes per game — lowest among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 30.6

Air Force has allowed 30.0 carries per game (720 carries / 24 games) since last season– 2nd lowest among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 37.5

Air Force has allowed 2.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (352 yards / 134 touches) in the Red Zone since last season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 3.7

Air Force has allowed 263.7 yards from scrimmage per game this season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 383.3

San Diego State Aztecs Defensive Stats & Trends

San Diego State has sacked opposing QBs just once on 94 pass attempts in the Red Zone since last season– 3rd worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 16.0

San Diego State has sacked opposing QBs just once on 94 pass attempts in the Red Zone since last season– 3rd worst in FBS; Average: 16.0

San Diego State has not recorded a sack (39 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– tied for worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 17.1

San Diego State has tackled opponents for a loss on 153 of 715 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) since last season– 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.

San Diego State has tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 25 rushing attempts (28% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 15%.


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.