Air Force vs Utah State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 6

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 06, 2022, 2:31 PM
  • (2-4) are point favorites vs (2-4)
  • Total (Over/Under): points
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The Air Force Falcons (5-2) visit Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium to take on the Utah State Aggies (3-4) on Oct. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT in Logan.

are betting favorites in Week 6, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Air Force vs. Utah State is total points.

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Air Force vs. Utah State Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 6

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Air Force
Utah State

Air Force vs Utah State Prediction for Week 6

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Air Force will win this game with 60.4% confidence.

Air Force vs Utah State Spread Prediction for Week 6

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Air Force will cover the spread with 75.2% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Air Force and Utah State, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


  • Air Force have covered the Spread in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Air Force has hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+6.05 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Air Force have covered the 1Q Spread in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.89 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Air Force have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Air Force has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Utah State has hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+11.85 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Utah State has hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.50 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Utah State has hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.85 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Utah State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.75 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Utah State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in their last 4 games (+4.02 Units / 82% ROI)

Air Force Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Air Force has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Air Force is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
  • Air Force is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
  • Air Force is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Utah State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Utah State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Utah State is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
  • Utah State is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
  • Utah State is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Utah State: Keys to the Game vs. Air Force

Utah State is 4-1 (.800) when in a one score game since the 2020 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: .492

Utah State is 10-2 (.833) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team — tied for 6th-best in FBS; Average: .497

Matchup Notes for Air Force vs. Utah State

Utah State’s receiving corps has 41 receiving touchdowns since the 2021 season — fourth-most among FBS WR corps. Air Force’s defense has allowed 18 receiving touchdowns since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-fewest among NonP5 defenses.

Air Force Offensive Stats & Trends

Air Force WRs have averaged 25.9 yards per reception (311 yards/12 catches) on 3rd and long since last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 14.7

Air Force Skill Players have averaged just 3.6 receptions per game (18/5) this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 19.6

Air Force Skill Players have been targeted 7.4 times per game (133/18) since last season– lowest among FBS Teams; Average: 29.7

Air Force Skill Players have averaged 24.2 yards per reception (1,621 yards/67 catches) since last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.2

Air Force Skill Players have averaged just 3.7 receptions per game (67/18) since last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 19.0

Utah State Offensive Stats & Trends

Utah State WRs have 1,281 receiving yards on 3rd down since last season– 3rd most among FBS Teams

Utah State RBs have not rushed for a 0 TD on 4 carries (inf Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– tied for worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 4.4

Utah State QBs have fumbled 4 times in the Red Zone since last season– tied for 3rd most among FBS Teams

Utah State RBs have averaged 4.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (2,319 yards / 557 touches) since last season– tied for 3rd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4

Utah State RBs have not rushed for a 0 TD on 84 carries (inf Carries Per TD) this season– tied for worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 19.5

Air Force Falcons Defensive Stats & Trends

Air Force has averaged a sack every 58.0 pass attempts (116 Pass Attempts/2 Sacks) this season– 2nd worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 15.3

Air Force has averaged a sack every 58.0 pass attempts (116 Pass Attempts/2 Sacks) this season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 14.7

Air Force has sacked opposing QBs on just 2% of pass attempts (2/116) this season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 7%

Air Force has allowed 30.1 carries per game (541 carries / 18 games) since last season– lowest among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 37.5

Air Force has allowed 154.4 Passing Yards per game (772/5) this season– 5th best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 243.6

Utah State Aggies Defensive Stats & Trends

Utah State has tackled opponents for a loss on 28 of 93 rushing attempts (30% TFL%) in the Red Zone since last season– best in FBS; Average: 15%.

Utah State has tackled opponents for a loss on 28 of 93 rushing attempts (30% TFL%) in the Red Zone since last season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 15%.

Utah State has allowed 10 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– most among Non-Power 5 Teams

Utah State has allowed 10 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– most in FBS

Utah State has sacked opponents 9 times in the Red Zone since last season– most in FBS


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.