Akron vs Ohio Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 5

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Ohio head coach Tim Albin yells from the sideline during the first half of the Mid-American Conference championship NCAA college football game against Toledo, Saturday, Dec. 3, 2022, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)
(AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 27, 2024, 12:03 PM
  • The Ohio is a -12.5 point favorite vs. Akron
  • The Akron vs. Ohio Total(Over/Under): 45.5 points
  • TV Channel: ESPN+

The Akron Zips (1-3) visit Peden Stadium to take on the Ohio Bobcats (2-2) on Sep. 28 in Athens, OH. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.

Ohio is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -12.5 (-105).

The Akron vs. Ohio Over/Under is 45.5 total points.

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Akron vs. Ohio Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Akron+12.5 -11545.5 -105+375
Ohio -12.5 -10545.5 -115-500

Akron vs Ohio Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Ohio will win this game with 81.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Akron and Ohio, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Akron vs Ohio Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Ohio will cover the spread with 65.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Akron have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 10 games (+5.00 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Akron has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.05 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Akron has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Akron has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 games (+2.55 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Ohio has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+6.95 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Ohio has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+5.50 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Ohio has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.85 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Ohio has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+2.60 Units / 8% ROI)
  • Ohio has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+2.15 Units / 5% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Ohio players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Ohio Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Parker Navarro has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Parker Navarro has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 43% ROI)

Akron Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Akron is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -27.27% ROI).

Ohio Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Ohio is 2-2 against the spread this college football season (-0.2 Units / -4.49% ROI).

Akron: Keys to the Game vs. Ohio

Akron is 1-3 (.200) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: .632

Akron is 1-5 (.143) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-6th-worst in FBS; Average: .507

Akron is 1-11 (.077) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: .551

Akron is 1-10 (.083) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-6th-worst in FBS; Average: .393

Ohio: Keys to the Game vs. Akron

Ohio is winless (0-4) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .262

Ohio is 7-2 (.778) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .463

Ohio is 7-3 (.700) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-14th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .513

Ohio is 5-4 (.556) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-38th-best in FBS; Average: .445

Matchup Notes for Akron vs. Ohio

Ohio’s RBs has rushed for 562 yards on 96 carries (5.9 YPC) this season — T-35th-best among FBS RBs. Akron’s defense have allowed 5.1 YPC this season — T-21st-worst among FBS defenses.

Akron’s RBs has 20 receptions in 4 games (5.0 per game) this season — T-19th-best among FBS RBs. Ohio’s defense has allowed 21.0 receptions per game this season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.

Jake Newell (AKR) has 16 receptions in 4 games (4.0 per game) this season — 3rd-best of Qualified Tight Ends. Ohio’s defense has allowed 21.0 receptions per game this season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.

Akron Offensive Stats & Trends

Akron Skill Players have averaged just 9.3 yards per reception (3,121 yards/334 catches) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.1

Akron WRs have averaged a touchdown every 22.9 receptions (206 Rec/9 TDs) since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.8

Akron RBs have averaged 1.5 yards from scrimmage per touch (25 yards / 17 touches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 7.0

Akron RBs have averaged 65.1 rushing yards per game (1,042/16) since the 2023 season– T-3rd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 126.7

Akron Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 20.9 receptions (334 Rec/16 TDs) since the 2023 season– 6th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.4

Ohio Offensive Stats & Trends

Ohio WRs have just one touchdown on 46 receptions this season– 7th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.4

Ohio’s RBs has rushed for 562 yards on 96 carries (5.9 YPC) this season — T-35th-best among FBS RBs. Akron’s defense have allowed 5.1 YPC this season — T-21st-worst among FBS defenses.

Ohio WRs have averaged just 10.6 yards per reception (297 yards/28 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– 11th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 14.4

Ohio RBs have averaged 3.9 yards from scrimmage per touch (268 yards / 68 touches) on 3rd down since the 2023 season– 5th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.7

Ohio Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 30.0 receptions (60 Rec/2 TDs) this season– T-8th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.0

Akron Zips Defensive Stats & Trends

Akron has allowed 4 TDs in close and late situations this season– T-most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Akron has no interceptions and 17 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 10.0

Akron has tackled opponents for a loss on just 13 of 160 rushing attempts (8% TFL%) this season– T-5th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.

Akron has allowed 4 TDs in close and late situations this season– T-most in FBS

Akron opponents has averaged just 2.1 Passing Attempts per TD (35 Pass Attempts/17 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst in FBS; Average: 3.9

Ohio Bobcats Defensive Stats & Trends

Ohio has tackled opponents for a loss on 115 of 495 rushing attempts (23% TFL%) since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.

Ohio has tackled opponents for a loss on 115 of 495 rushing attempts (23% TFL%) since the 2023 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 16%.

Ohio tackled opponents for a loss on 93 of 364 rushing attempts (26% TFL%) in the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.

Ohio tackled opponents for a loss on 93 of 364 rushing attempts (26% TFL%) in the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 16%.

Ohio has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 7 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 11%.


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.