Alabama vs Mississippi Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 11, 2022, 2:30 PM
  • Alabama (7-2) are -11.5 point favorites vs Mississippi (8-1)
  • Total (Over/Under): 64.5 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Alabama Crimson Tide (9-2) visit Vaught-Hemingway Stadium to take on the Ole Miss Rebels (8-3) on Nov. 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST in Oxford.

are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Alabama vs. Mississippi is total points.

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Alabama vs. Mississippi Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 11

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Alabama
Mississippi

Alabama vs Mississippi Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Alabama will win this game with 69.7% confidence.

Alabama vs Mississippi Spread Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Alabama will cover the spread with 67.4% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Alabama and Mississippi, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Alabama Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Alabama players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bryce Young has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 4 away games (+4.80 Units / 104% ROI)
  • Jermaine Burton has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Ja’Corey Brooks has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Traeshon Holden has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Alabama has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+4.80 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Alabama has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+4.15 Units / 5% ROI)
  • Alabama has hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.40 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Alabama has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.80 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Alabama have covered the Spread in 12 of their last 21 games (+2.05 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Ole Miss has hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.85 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Ole Miss has hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 11 games at home (+8.75 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Ole Miss have covered the 1H Spread in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.55 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Ole Miss has hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Ole Miss has hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.45 Units / 38% ROI)

Alabama Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Alabama has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Alabama is 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.3 Units / -6.83% ROI
  • Alabama is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
  • Alabama is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI

Mississippi Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Mississippi has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Mississippi is 7-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.95 Units / 10.89% ROI
  • Mississippi is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
  • Mississippi is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI

Alabama: Keys to the Game vs. Mississippi

#1 Alabama is 23-1 (.742) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2020 season– 2nd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .446

#1 Alabama is undefeated (17-0) when not throwing an interception since the 2020 season– 2nd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .511

#1 Alabama is 10-1 (.909) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2020 season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .376

#1 Alabama is 17-1 (.895) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2020 season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .419

Mississippi: Keys to the Game vs. Alabama

#7 Ole Miss is 7-2 (.778) when sacking the QB less than 3 times — tied for 5th-best in FBS; Average: .378

#7 Ole Miss is 12-4 (.750) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times — 6th-best in FBS; Average: .420

#7 Ole Miss is 9-4 (.692) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times — 6th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .417

#9 Ole Miss is 11-5 (.688) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2020 season– 5th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .376

Matchup Notes for Alabama vs. Mississippi

Ole Miss’s WRs has gained 1,574 yards on 99 receptions (15.9 YPR) this season — fifth-best among Power 5 WRs. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception this season — tied for fifth-best among SEC defenses.

Ole Miss has gained 1,894 yards on 131 receptions (14.5 YPR) this season — fourth-best among Power 5 skill players. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception this season — tied for fifth-best among SEC defenses.

Ole Miss’s RBs has 1,641 rushing yards this season — fifth-most among FBS RBs. Alabama’s defense has allowed 922 rushing yards this season — fourth-fewest among SEC defenses.

Alabama’s TEs has 11 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2021 season — tied for fifth-most among FBS TEs. Ole Miss’s defense has allowed 19 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2021 season — fifth-most among SEC defenses.

Alabama’s TEs has 11 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2021 season — tied for third-most among P5 TEs. Ole Miss’s defense has allowed 19 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2021 season — fifth-most among SEC defenses.

Alabama has 35 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2021 season — tied for second-most among Power 5 skill players. Ole Miss’s defense has allowed 19 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2021 season — fifth-most among SEC defenses.

Alabama Offensive Stats & Trends

#10 Alabama QBs have 20 completions for 20 or more yards with over 10 yards to go since last season– most among FBS Teams

#10 Alabama QBs have 37 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down since last season– most among FBS Teams

#10 Alabama WRs have 1,644 receiving yards on 3rd down since last season– 2nd most among Power 5 Teams

#10 Alabama Skill Players have 2,190 receiving yards on 3rd down since last season– most among FBS Teams

#10 Alabama RBs have averaged 8.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (502 yards / 63 touches) in the 4th quarter this season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4

Mississippi Offensive Stats & Trends

Ole Miss’s WRs has gained 1,574 yards on 99 receptions (15.9 YPR) this season — fifth-best among Power 5 WRs. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception this season — tied for fifth-best among SEC defenses.

Ole Miss has gained 1,894 yards on 131 receptions (14.5 YPR) this season — fourth-best among Power 5 skill players. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception this season — tied for fifth-best among SEC defenses.

#11 Ole Miss RBs have rushed for 7 TDs in the 1st quarter this season– 2nd most among FBS Teams

#11 Ole Miss Skill Players have fumbled 5 times in the Red Zone since last season– most among Power 5 Teams

#11 Ole Miss RBs have rushed for 22 TDs this season– tied for most among FBS Teams

Alabama Crimson Tide Defensive Stats & Trends

#10 Alabama has tackled opponents for a loss on 13 of 51 rushing attempts (26% TFL%) on 3rd and short since last season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11%.

#10 Alabama has tackled opponents for a loss on 13 of 51 rushing attempts (26% TFL%) on 3rd and short since last season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 11%.

#10 Alabama has sacked opponents 81 times since last season– most in FBS

#10 Alabama has tackled opponents for a loss on 6 of 21 rushing attempts (29% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– 3rd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11%.

#10 Alabama has sacked opposing QBs on 11% of pass attempts (81/754) since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 7%

Ole Miss Rebels Defensive Stats & Trends

#11 Ole Miss has allowed 130.9 yards from scrimmage per game in the 4th quarter since last season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 90.0

#11 Ole Miss has allowed first downs on 31% of rush attempts in close and late situations since last season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 22%

#11 Ole Miss has allowed 130.9 yards from scrimmage per game in the 4th quarter since last season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 90.6

#11 Ole Miss has sacked opponents 65 times since last season– 4th most among Power 5 Teams

#11 Ole Miss has averaged 3.1 sacks per game since last season– tied for 4th best in FBS; Average: 2.2


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.