- Alabama vs. Missouri kicks off Saturday at 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
- Missouri running back Ahmad Hardy gives the Tigers a top 10 rushing offense.
- Alabama ranks outside the top 60 in EPA/rush and EPA/rush allowed.
Alabama is looking to build on big wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt as it looks to return to the SEC championship after missing two of the last three.
Missouri may seem like an unlikely challenger, but predictive analytics quite like the Tigers as a stealth SEC contender.
Can Missouri spring the upset, or is this just all Alabama hate? Here’s my take:
Alabama vs. Missouri Odds
- Point Spread: Alabama -3
- Moneyline: Alabama -160 | Missouri +135
- Over/Under: 51.5
Alabama vs. Missouri Preview
There may not be a single team in Division I college football that’s had a better last two weeks than Alabama.
The Crimson Tide were the target of national scorn after losing its opener at Florida State. But in Week 5, Alabama surged back into the College Football Playoff picture with a win over Georgia. Last week, it earned a measure of revenge against Vanderbilt after last year’s upset loss in Nashville. Tuscaloosa was featured on the College GameDay schedule once again.
The Tide also became the betting favorite to win the SEC, and quarterback Ty Simpson is now third in the Heisman Trophy odds market.
Not bad for a couple of Saturdays in late September and early October.
What I’m trying to point out is that the overall market for Alabama football odds has ripened quite fast. This was a team that was universally seen as much weaker than its peak Saban value just a couple of weeks ago. Now, it’s 7-to-1 to win the national championship?
This is not an immortal team, and the analytics bear that out. Simpson has been quite good, but the ground game is quite average – Alabama ranks 69th in EPA/rush and 123rd in success rate on run plays. It struggled to defend the run too, ranking 63rd in EPA/rush allowed.
Alabama found success against Georgia because of the Bulldogs’ surprisingly vulnerable secondary. It got revenge against a Vanderbilt team that’s a great story, but was obviously overrated after wins against Virginia Tech and South Carolina.
Alabama’s road game at Missouri will be the toughest SEC game on its schedule so far. Ahmady Hardy gives the Tigers a top 10 ground game, and the defense has been better and more balanced throughout all three levels.
Alabama vs. Missouri Prediction
I am predicting an outright win for Missouri on Saturday. Styles make fights, and Missouri has the offense to take advantage of where Alabama is weak.
I’m expecting a big game for Ahmad Hardy, so take a look at his player props if you’re so inclined.
Prediction: Missouri +3; Missouri +135
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