Alabama vs. Tennessee: Prediction, Odds, Betting Preview

Alabama continues its march through the SEC with Saturday’s game against No. 11 Tennessee – its fourth straight game against an AP Top 25 opponent. 

Tennessee has challenged Alabama closely under Josh Heupel, making this another potentially tricky spot for the Crimson Tide. 

Below, you’ll find my betting preview for one of the top games of Week 8. 

Alabama vs. Tennessee Odds

• Point Spread: Alabama -8.5
• Moneyline: Alabama -325  |  Tennessee +260
• Over/Under: 58.5 

Alabama vs. Tennessee Preview

Tennessee has won two of the last three games against Alabama, which hasn’t happened since the pre-Saban days of the mid-2000s. That has many bettors considering the hefty 8.5-point spread currently available with the Vols. 

But I would be careful before jumping in front of this Alabama train this week. Two years ago, during the last game in Tuscaloosa between these two programs, Alabama won 34-20 and covered as a nine-point favorite. And right now, Ty Simpson is playing like one of the hottest quarterbacks in college football, even charging up the Heisman Trophy odds table.

Simpson and the Alabama passing game are key to handicapping this game. Tennessee’s defense ranks 98th in FBS in EPA/pass allowed, meaning its back end will struggle to hold up against Simpson’s strong offensive command. Alabama ranks 20th in EPA/play, seventh in EPA/pass, and seventh in Offensive Success rate during passing plays. 

I like Alabama to win the game, but I’m not sure I like laying 8.5 points. In my opinion, the better handicap is to attack the total, where it seems likely that Simpson and Alabama will pace the game with passing offense.

Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar is no slouch either, so the Vols will be able to keep up if playing from behind. And while Alabama likely has the more explosive offense, Tennessee has superior balance and a better run game, meaning the Vols should capitalize in the red zone. The Alabama defense has been surprisingly mediocre up front.

Alabama and Tennessee are a combined 9-3 to the over this season. Even accounting for the strong offenses both teams have, the market is still underpricing their totals. 

Alabama vs. Tennessee Prediction

I am predicting an over in Saturday’s game between Alabama and Tennessee. 

I like both the full-game Over 58.5 and the 1H Over 29.5.

Prediction: Over 58.5; 1H Over 29.5