Arkansas vs Mississippi State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 6

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 06, 2022, 1:31 PM
  • (2-4) are point favorites vs (2-4)
  • Total (Over/Under): points
  • Watch the game on SEC Network

The Arkansas Razorbacks (4-3) visit Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-2) on Oct. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT in Starkville.

are betting favorites in Week 6, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Arkansas vs. Mississippi State is total points.

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Arkansas vs. Mississippi State Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 6

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Arkansas
Mississippi State

Arkansas vs Mississippi State Prediction for Week 6

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Mississippi State will win this game with 56.4% confidence.

Arkansas vs Mississippi State Spread Prediction for Week 6

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Mississippi State will cover the spread with 50.7% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Arkansas and Mississippi State, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Arkansas Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Arkansas players for Week 6, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • KJ Jefferson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Jadon Haselwood has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.60 Units / 46% ROI)
  • KJ Jefferson has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • KJ Jefferson has hit the TD Passes Over in 3 of his last 4 away games (+2.80 Units / 69% ROI)

Best Mississippi State Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Mississippi State players for Week 6, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jaden Walley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Dillon Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Arkansas has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.97 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Arkansas has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.65 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Arkansas have covered the 1Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.30 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Arkansas has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.65 Units / 8% ROI)
  • Arkansas has hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.40 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Mississippi State has hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Mississippi State have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.80 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Mississippi State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.55 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Mississippi State have covered the 1H Spread in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 90% ROI)
  • Mississippi State has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 33% ROI)

Arkansas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Arkansas has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Arkansas are when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
  • Arkansas are when betting the Over for Units / ROI
  • Arkansas are when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Mississippi State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Mississippi State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Mississippi State are when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
  • Mississippi State are when betting the Over for Units / ROI
  • Mississippi State are when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Arkansas: Keys to the Game vs. Mississippi State

#20 Arkansas is 8-1 (.889) when not losing a fumble — 3rd-best in FBS; Average: .500

#20 Arkansas is 6-1 (.667) when not losing a fumble — tied for 5th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .428

#20 Arkansas is 2-7 (.200) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2020 season– tied for 8th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .392

#20 Arkansas is 4-11 (.250) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2020 season– tied for 8th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .435

Mississippi State: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas

Mississippi State is 5-1 (.625) when not throwing an interception — tied for 10th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .457

Mississippi State is undefeated (2-0) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2020 season– tied for 9th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .485

Mississippi State is 1-4 (.143) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2020 season– 9th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .382

Matchup Notes for Arkansas vs. Mississippi State

Mississippi State’s offense has thrown for 6,231 passing yards in 17 games (366.5 YPG) since the 2021 season — second-best among FBS offenses. Arkansas’s defense has allowed 256.4 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — third-worst among SEC defenses.

Arkansas’s defense has allowed 21.2 receptions per game this season — tied for third-worst among SEC defenses.

Mississippi State’s QBs has thrown for 6,492 passing yards in 17 games (381.9 YPG) since the 2021 season — second-best among FBS teams. Arkansas’s defense has allowed 256.4 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — third-worst among SEC defenses.

Arkansas Offensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas Skill Players have averaged 17.8 yards per reception (267 yards/15 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.2

Arkansas TEs have 4 receptions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations since last season– tied for 2nd most among FBS Teams

Arkansas TEs have 75 receiving yards in close and late situations this season– 5th most among FBS Teams

Arkansas Skill Players have averaged 16.8 yards per reception (185 yards/11 catches) on 3rd and short since last season– 3rd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10.1

Arkansas TEs have 4 receptions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations since last season– tied for most among Power 5 Teams

Mississippi State Offensive Stats & Trends

#23 Mississippi State Skill Players have averaged 38.3 receptions per game (651/17) since last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 19.0

#23 Mississippi State WRs have averaged 26.8 receptions per game (455/17) since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 13.0

#23 Mississippi State Skill Players have averaged 38.3 receptions per game (651/17) since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 19.7

#23 Mississippi State RBs have been targeted 13.8 times per game (235/17) since last season– 2nd highest among FBS Teams; Average: 4.4

#23 Mississippi State WRs have averaged 26.8 receptions per game (455/17) since last season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.0

Arkansas Razorbacks Defensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas opponents has averaged 10.2 Passing Attempts per TD (51 Pass Attempts/5 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 4.1

Arkansas has allowed 357.2 Passing Yards per game (1,429/4) this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 225.6

Arkansas opponents has averaged 10.2 Passing Attempts per TD (51 Pass Attempts/5 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since last season– best in FBS; Average: 4.0

Arkansas has allowed 16.8 yards per completion (1,429 yards/85 completions) this season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 12.4

Arkansas has allowed 16.8 yards per completion (1,429 yards/85 completions) this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.8

Mississippi State Bulldogs Defensive Stats & Trends

#23 Mississippi State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 6 of 83 rushing attempts (7% TFL%) in the Red Zone since last season– 3rd worst in FBS; Average: 15%.

#23 Mississippi State has allowed 8.5 yards from scrimmage per touch (392 yards / 46 touches) on 3rd and short since last season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 5.0

#23 Mississippi State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 6 of 83 rushing attempts (7% TFL%) in the Red Zone since last season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 15%.

#23 Mississippi State has allowed 30.5 carries per game (518 carries / 17 games) since last season– 3rd lowest among Power 5 Teams; Average: 35.7

#23 Mississippi State has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 7 of 26 carries (27%) on 3rd and long since last season– 4th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.