Arkansas vs Missouri Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 25, 2022, 10:35 AM
  • Arkansas (6-5) are -3 point favorites vs Missouri (5-6)
  • Total (Over/Under): 56 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Arkansas Razorbacks (6-5) visit Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium to take on the Missouri Tigers (5-6) on Nov. 25. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST in Columbia.

Arkansas are betting favorites in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).

The Arkansas vs. Missouri Over/Under is 56 total points.

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Arkansas vs. Missouri Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 13

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Arkansas-3 -11056 -110-165
Missouri +3 -11056 -110+135

Arkansas vs Missouri Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Arkansas will win this game with 58.2% confidence.

Arkansas vs Missouri Spread Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Missouri will cover the spread with 75.6% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Arkansas and Missouri, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Arkansas Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Arkansas players for Week 13, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jadon Haselwood has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.15 Units / 34% ROI)
  • KJ Jefferson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • KJ Jefferson has hit the TD Passes Over in 7 of his last 12 games (+3.30 Units / 25% ROI)
  • KJ Jefferson has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 86% ROI)
  • Raheim Sanders has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Matt Landers has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 39% ROI)

Best Missouri Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Missouri players for Week 13, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brady Cook has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 4 games (+4.50 Units / 88% ROI)
  • Brady Cook has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 84% ROI)
  • Brady Cook has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Tauskie Dove has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Arkansas has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.65 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Arkansas has hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.40 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Arkansas has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.22 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Arkansas have covered the 1Q Spread in 14 of their last 22 games (+4.90 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Arkansas have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 22 games (+4.20 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Missouri has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+12.55 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Missouri have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 15 games (+9.80 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Missouri has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.10 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Missouri has hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Missouri has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.45 Units / 31% ROI)

Arkansas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Arkansas has gone 6-5 against the spread this college football season (+0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI).

  • Arkansas is 5-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.7 Units / -24.04% ROI
  • Arkansas is 8-3 when betting the Over for +4.7 Units / 38.84% ROI
  • Arkansas is 3-8 when betting the Under for -5.8 Units / -47.93% ROI

Missouri Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Missouri has gone 6-5 against the spread this college football season (+0.45 Units / 3.7% ROI).

  • Missouri is 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.6 Units / -6.69% ROI
  • Missouri is 3-8 when betting the Over for -5.8 Units / -47.93% ROI
  • Missouri is 8-3 when betting the Under for +4.7 Units / 38.84% ROI

Missouri: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas

Missouri is 2-8 (.167) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2021 season– 8th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .368

Missouri is 2-11 (.154) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season– 7th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .434

Missouri is 2-11 (.154) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2021 season– tied for 9th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .409

Missouri is 2-5 (.286) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2021 season– 15th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .467

Matchup Notes for Arkansas vs. Missouri

Missouri’s TEs has 7 receptions in 9 games (just 0.8 per game) this season — fourth-worst among P5 TEs. Arkansas’s defense has allowed 21.0 receptions per game this season — second-worst among SEC defenses.

Missouri’s TEs have just 9.4 receiving yards per game this season — tied for fourth-worst among P5 TEs. Arkansas’s defense has allowed 288.7 receiving yards per game this season — fifth-worst among FBS defenses.

Missouri’s TEs have just 9.4 receiving yards per game this season — tied for fourth-worst among P5 TEs. Arkansas’s defense has allowed 288.7 receiving yards per game this season — second-worst among P5 defenses.

Arkansas Offensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas TEs have caught 4 touchdown passes in close and late situations since last season– tied for 3rd most among Power 5 Teams

Arkansas QBs have 11 completions for 20 or more yards with over 10 yards to go this season– tied for most among FBS Teams

Arkansas TEs have 4 receptions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations since last season– tied for 4th most among FBS Teams

Arkansas Skill Players have averaged 15.7 yards per reception (908 yards/58 catches) with over 10 yards to go since last season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 12.3

Arkansas TEs have 4 receptions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations since last season– tied for 3rd most among Power 5 Teams

Missouri Offensive Stats & Trends

Missouri’s TEs has 7 receptions in 9 games (just 0.8 per game) this season — fourth-worst among P5 TEs. Arkansas’s defense has allowed 21.0 receptions per game this season — second-worst among SEC defenses.

Missouri Skill Players have no touchdowns on 24 receptions in close and late situations this season– tied for worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.5

Missouri WRs have just one touchdown on 57 receptions in close and late situations since last season– 4th worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.2

Missouri’s TEs have just 9.4 receiving yards per game this season — tied for fourth-worst among P5 TEs. Arkansas’s defense has allowed 288.7 receiving yards per game this season — fifth-worst among FBS defenses.

Missouri WRs have averaged a touchdown every 21.1 receptions (338 Rec/16 TDs) since last season– 4th worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.0

Arkansas Razorbacks Defensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas has allowed 14.7 yards per completion (3,089 yards/210 completions) this season– tied for 3rd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 12.2

Arkansas has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 10 of 23 carries (43%) on 3rd and long this season– worst in FBS; Average: 18%

Arkansas has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 10 of 23 carries (43%) on 3rd and long this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%

Arkansas has allowed first downs on 35% of rush attempts on 3rd and long this season– worst in FBS; Average: 15%

Arkansas has allowed first downs on 35% of rush attempts on 3rd and long this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 14%

Missouri Tigers Defensive Stats & Trends

Missouri has allowed a Completion Pct of just 51% (87 completions/172 attempts) in the 1st half — 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 62%

Missouri’s opponents has not attempted a two-point conversion (89 PATs) since last season– tied for lowest in FBS; Average: 5%

Missouri has allowed a Completion Pct of just 51% (87 completions/172 attempts) in the 1st half — best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 61%

Missouri has allowed a Completion Pct of 66% (41 completions/62 attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– 4th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 53%

Missouri has allowed 11 TD passes in close and late situations since last season– tied for 2nd most among Power 5 Teams


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.