Arkansas St vs Troy Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 10

BetMGM Betting Oct 28, 2025, 9:37 PM

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Balls lie on the field before an NCAA college football game between Mississippi and Vanderbilt on Thursday, Aug. 29, 2013, in Nashville, Tenn.

(AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

Troy is a -7 point favorite vs. Arkansas St
Arkansas State vs. Troy Total (Over/Under): 53.5 points
TV Channel: ESPNU

Arkansas State (4-4) visit Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) to take on Troy (6-2) on Nov. 1 in Troy, AL. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT.

Troy is a betting favorite in Week 10, with the spread sitting at -7 (-115).

The Arkansas State vs. Troy Over/Under is 53.5 total points.

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Arkansas State vs. Troy Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Arkansas State	+7 -105	53.5 -115	240
Troy	-7 -115	53.5 -105	-300

Arkansas State vs Troy Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Troy will win this game with 71.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Arkansas St and Troy, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Arkansas State vs Troy Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Arkansas State will cover the spread with 55.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Arkansas State Best Bets Today

Arkansas State has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 games (+7.25 Units / 38% ROI)
Arkansas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.55 Units / 24% ROI)
Arkansas State has hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.60 Units / 34% ROI)
Arkansas State have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
Arkansas State has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)

Troy Best Bets Today

Troy has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+11.25 Units / 57% ROI)
Troy has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+10.15 Units / 50% ROI)
Troy have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 56% ROI)
Troy has hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 64% ROI)
Troy has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 10 games (+5.15 Units / 35% ROI)

Arkansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Arkansas St is 5-3 against the spread this college football season (+1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI).

Arkansas State is 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.9 Units / 28.36% ROI
Arkansas State is 2-6 when betting the Over for -4.6 Units / -52.27% ROI
Arkansas State is 6-2 when betting the Under for +3.8 Units / 43.18% ROI

Troy Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Troy iss 6-1 against the spread this college football season (+4.9 Units / 63.64% ROI).

Troy is 5-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.3 Units / 72% ROI
Troy is 4-3 when betting the Over for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI
Troy is 3-4 when betting the Under for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI

Arkansas State: Keys to the Game vs. Troy

Arkansas State was 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– 15th-best in FBS; Average: .602

Arkansas State was 7-5 (.583) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– 35th-best in FBS; Average: .429

Arkansas State was 6-2 (.750) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-33rd-best in FBS; Average: .604

Arkansas State is 7-1 (.875) when not throwing an interception since the 2024 season– 10th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .666

Troy: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas State

Troy RBs have averaged 10.1 Yards per Carry (141 yards/14 carries) in close and late situations this season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1

Troy RBs have averaged 7.8 Yards per Carry (226 yards/29 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– 4th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 4.9

Troy’s RBs has averaged just 5.1 yards after the catch this season — T-9th-worst among FBS RBs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 8.6 RAC to RBs this season — 34th-worst among FBS defenses.

Troy had no touchdowns on 16 receptions last week– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.6

Troy RBs averaged 18.8 yards per target (94 yards/5 targets) on 3rd down last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 6.0

Matchup Notes for Arkansas State vs. Troy