- The Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns are a -6.5 point favorite vs. the Arkansas State Red Wolves
- Arkansas State vs. Louisiana Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
Arkansas State (2-2) visit Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium to take on Louisiana (3-1) on Oct. 3 in Lafayette, LA. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 pm.
The Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-112).
The Arkansas State vs. Louisiana Over/Under is 49.5 total points.
Arkansas State vs. Louisiana Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Arkansas State | +6.5 -105 | 49.5 -140 | +200 |
| Louisiana | -6.5 -112 | 49.5 +105 | -250 |
Arkansas State vs Louisiana Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Louisiana will win this game with 65.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Arkansas State Red Wolves and the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Arkansas State vs Louisiana Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Louisiana will cover the spread with 62.5% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns vs Arkansas State Red Wolves and all games with BetMGM
Arkansas State Best Bets Today
- Arkansas State has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+9.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- Arkansas State have covered the 1H Spread in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Arkansas State have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.80 Units / 46% ROI)
Louisiana Best Bets Today
- Louisiana has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+6.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- Louisiana has hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.60 Units / 41% ROI)
- Louisiana has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Louisiana has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.55 Units / 25% ROI)
- Louisiana has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.40 Units / 16% ROI)
Arkansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Arkansas State Red Wolves is 1-3 against the spread this college football season (-2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI).
- Arkansas State is 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Arkansas State is 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Arkansas State is 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
Louisiana Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns is 3-0 against the spread this college football season (+3 Units / 68.18% ROI).
- Louisiana is 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 10.28% ROI
- Louisiana is 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
- Louisiana is 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
Arkansas State: Keys to the Game vs. Louisiana
Arkansas State is 1-3 (.250) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2024 season– T-11th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .487
Arkansas State was 7-5 (.583) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– 35th-best in FBS; Average: .429
Arkansas State is 1-3 (.250) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2024 season– T-13th-worst in FBS; Average: .564
Arkansas State was 7-5 (.583) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– 13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .388
Louisiana: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas State
Louisiana was 9-3 (.750) when not losing a fumble last season– T-12th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .533
Louisiana was 9-1 (.900) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-9th-best in FBS; Average: .624
Louisiana was 10-2 (.833) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-23rd-best in FBS; Average: .628
Louisiana was 9-2 (.818) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-11th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .570
Matchup Notes for Arkansas State vs. Louisiana
Louisiana’s offense threw for 2,105 passing yards in 13 games (just 161.9 YPG) last season — 15th-worst among FBS offenses. Arkansas State’s defense allowed 244.9 passing yards per game last season — 24th-worst among FBS defenses.
Louisiana’s QBs threw for 2,105 passing yards in 13 games (just 161.9 YPG) last season — 18th-worst among FBS teams. Arkansas State’s defense allowed 244.9 passing yards per game last season — 24th-worst among FBS defenses.
Louisiana’s WRs had just 111.2 receiving yards per game last season — 18th-worst among FBS WRs. Arkansas State’s defense allowed 176.8 receiving yards per game to WRs last season — 26th-worst among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State has averaged just 10.3 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-4th-worst among FBS skill players. Louisiana’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC since the 2024 season — T-8th-best among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State’s RBs averaged just 5.3 yards after the catch last season — 8th-worst among FBS RBs. Louisiana’s defense allowed just 6.3 RAC to RBs last season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State’s WRs has averaged just 11.9 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-20th-worst among FBS WRs. Louisiana’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC since the 2024 season — best among NonP5 defenses.
Arkansas State Offensive Stats & Trends
Arkansas State have thrown 0 TDs on 17 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in the 4th quarter this season– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 16.6
Arkansas State has averaged just 10.3 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-4th-worst among FBS skill players. Louisiana’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC since the 2024 season — T-8th-best among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State has scored on 7% of their drives (1/14) in the 1st quarter this season– T-3rd-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 23%
Arkansas State’s RBs averaged just 5.3 yards after the catch last season — 8th-worst among FBS RBs. Louisiana’s defense allowed just 6.3 RAC to RBs last season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State’s WRs has averaged just 11.9 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-20th-worst among FBS WRs. Louisiana’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC since the 2024 season — best among NonP5 defenses.
Louisiana Offensive Stats & Trends
Louisiana Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 35.5 receptions (71 Rec/2 TDs) this season– 4th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.7
Louisiana WRs have just one touchdown on 43 receptions this season– 8th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 9.8
Louisiana’s offense threw for 2,105 passing yards in 13 games (just 161.9 YPG) last season — 15th-worst among FBS offenses. Arkansas State’s defense allowed 244.9 passing yards per game last season — 24th-worst among FBS defenses.
Louisiana WRs had no touchdowns on 13 receptions last week– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 9.4
Louisiana RBs have fumbled 4 times this season– T-most among FBS Teams
Arkansas State Defensive Stats & Trends
Arkansas State allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 94 of 483 carries (20%) last season– worst in FBS; Average: 13%
Arkansas State allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 9 of 23 carries (39%) on 3rd and long last season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 19%
Arkansas State allowed a Completion Pct of 77% (44 completions/57 attempts) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 54%
Arkansas State has allowed a Completion Pct of 72% (21 completions/29 attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 54%
Arkansas State allowed opponents to catch 44 of 57 passes (77% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 55%
Louisiana Defensive Stats & Trends
The Louisiana defense has allowed scores on 11% of opponent drives (7/63) this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 22%
Louisiana has not allowed an opponent to rush for 10 or more yards on any of their 24 carries on 3rd and long since the 2024 season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 18%
Louisiana allowed a Completion Pct of just 25% (5 completions/20 attempts) on third and 10+ yards to go in the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 57%
Louisiana tackled opponents for a loss on 5 of 15 rushing attempts (33% TFL%) last week– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.
Louisiana allowed 11 TD passes in close and late situations in the 2023 season– most in FBS
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