Arkansas State Red WolvesOklahoma Sooners

Arkansas State vs Oklahoma Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 1

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Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel (8) celebrates after a touchdown against Oklahoma State during the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 19, 2022, in Norman, Okla. (AP Photo/Alonzo Adams)

(AP Photo/Alonzo Adams)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 05, 2023, 1:30 PM

Oklahoma is a -35.5 point favorite vs Arkansas State
Total (Over/Under): 58.5 points
Watch the game on ESPN

The Arkansas State Red Wolves visit Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium to take on the Oklahoma Sooners on Sep. 2. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT in Norman.

– is a betting favorite in Week 1, with the spread sitting at ().

The Arkansas State vs. Oklahoma Over/Under is total points.

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Arkansas State vs. Oklahoma Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 1

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Arkansas State
Oklahoma

Arkansas State vs Oklahoma Prediction for Week 1

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Oklahoma will win this game with 95.0% confidence.

Arkansas State vs Oklahoma Spread Prediction for Week 1

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Arkansas State will cover the spread with 64.6% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Arkansas State and Oklahoma, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.

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Best Oklahoma Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Oklahoma players for Week 1, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Dillon Gabriel has hit the TD Passes Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.65 Units / 55% ROI)

Dillon Gabriel has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)

Dillon Gabriel has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.60 Units / 34% ROI)

Jalil Farooq has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 80% ROI)

Arkansas State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Arkansas State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.65 Units / 49% ROI)

Arkansas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 away games (+6.05 Units / 52% ROI)

Arkansas State have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)

Arkansas State have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)

Arkansas State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+5.60 Units / 38% ROI)

Oklahoma Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Oklahoma has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.90 Units / 46% ROI)

Oklahoma have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.95 Units / 66% ROI)

Oklahoma has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.80 Units / 39% ROI)

Oklahoma has hit the 1Q Moneyline in their last 4 games (+3.55 Units / 59% ROI)

Oklahoma has hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.55 Units / 30% ROI)

Arkansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Arkansas State went against the spread last college football season ( Units / ROI).

Arkansas State went 2-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -6 Units / -31.01% ROI
Arkansas State went 7-5 when betting the Over for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI
Arkansas State went 5-7 when betting the Under for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI

Oklahoma Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Oklahoma went against the spread last college football season ( Units / ROI).

Oklahoma went 4-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.1 Units / -42.21% ROI
Oklahoma went 6-6 when betting the Over for -0.6 Units / -4.2% ROI
Oklahoma went 6-6 when betting the Under for -0.6 Units / -4.2% ROI

Arkansas State: Keys to the Game vs. Oklahoma

Arkansas State is 1-10 (.091) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2021 season– tied for 6th-worst in FBS; Average: .451

Arkansas State is 3-18 (.143) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season– 12th-worst in FBS; Average: .427

Arkansas State is 3-18 (.143) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2021 season– 13th-worst in FBS; Average: .400

Arkansas State is 2-17 (.100) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2021 season– tied for 6th-worst in FBS; Average: .410

Oklahoma: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas State

#20 Oklahoma is 10-3 (.769) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2021 season– 6th-best in FBS; Average: .449

#20 Oklahoma is 12-2 (.800) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season– tied for 8th-best in FBS; Average: .558

#20 Oklahoma is 10-2 (.667) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season– tied for 8th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .480

Matchup Notes for Arkansas State vs. Oklahoma

Dillon Gabriel (OKL) completed 74.3% of passes (26/35) in the red zone in the 2022 season — best of Qualified Power 5 Quarterbackss. Arkansas State’s defense allowed a completion rate of 69.2% when defending in the red zone in the 2022 season — third-worst among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma’s WRs gained 2,415 yards on 156 receptions (15.5 YPR) in the 2022 season — tied for fifth-best among Power 5 WRs. Arkansas State’s defense allowed 17.4 Yards Per Reception to WRs in the 2022 season — worst among FBS defenses.

J.T. Shrout (ARKS) threw for 1,220 passing yards in 9 games (just 135.6 YPG) in the 2022 season — sixth-worst of Qualified Quarterbackss. Oklahoma’s defense allowed 289.8 passing yards per game in the 2022 season — fifth-worst among P5 defenses.

J.T. Shrout (ARKS) scored just 0.9 TDs per interception (7/8) in the 2022 season — fourth-worst of Qualified Quarterbackss. Oklahoma’s defense allowed just 1.2 TDs per Interception in the 2022 season — tied for 20th-best among FBS defenses.

Arkansas State Offensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas State’s QBs has thrown for 7,033 passing yards in 24 games (293.0 YPG) since the 2021 season — 21st-best among FBS teams. Oklahoma’s defense has allowed 283.8 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — second-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Arkansas State’s offense has thrown for 6,476 passing yards in 24 games (269.8 YPG) since the 2021 season — 25th-best among FBS offenses. Oklahoma’s defense has allowed 283.8 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — second-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Arkansas State gained 2,718 yards on 246 receptions (just 11.0 YPR) in the 2022 season — tied for 24th-worst among FBS skill players. Oklahoma’s defense allowed just 11.5 Yards Per Reception in the 2022 season — fifth-best among Big 12 defenses.

Arkansas State’s WRs had just 133.0 receiving yards per game in the 2022 season — 23rd-worst among FBS WRs. Oklahoma’s defense allowed 273.5 receiving yards per game in the 2022 season — tied for 14th-worst among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma Offensive Stats & Trends

#20 Oklahoma Skill Players averaged 21.7 yards per reception (455 yards/21 catches) with over 10 yards to go in the 2022 season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 12.6

#20 Oklahoma Skill Players averaged 21.7 yards per reception (455 yards/21 catches) with over 10 yards to go in the 2022 season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.5

Oklahoma’s WRs gained 2,415 yards on 156 receptions (15.5 YPR) in the 2022 season — tied for 14th-best among FBS WRs. Arkansas State’s defense allowed 17.4 Yards Per Reception to WRs in the 2022 season — worst among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma’s TEs has 110 receptions in 26 games (4.2 per game) since the 2021 season — second-best among Big 12 TEs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed just 17.4 receptions per game since the 2021 season — tied for 31st-best among FBS defenses.

Arkansas State Red Wolves Defensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas State has not recorded a sack (61 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: 16.3

Arkansas State allowed passes of 40+ yards on 18 of 350 attempts (5%) in the 2022 season– worst in FBS; Average: 2%

Arkansas State has not recorded a sack (61 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– tied for worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 16.0

Arkansas State has allowed first downs on 41% of pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 23%

Arkansas State allowed passes of 40+ yards on 18 of 350 attempts (5%) in the 2022 season– worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 2%

Oklahoma Sooners Defensive Stats & Trends

#20 Oklahoma has tackled opponents for a loss on 184 of 984 rushing attempts (19% TFL%) since the 2021 season– 20th-best in FBS; Average: 16%.

#20 Oklahoma has allowed 325 first down receptions since the 2021 season– tied for 4th-most in FBS

#20 Oklahoma has allowed 325 first down receptions since the 2021 season– 3rd-most among Power 5 Teams

#20 Oklahoma has tackled opponents for a loss on 11 of 66 rushing attempts (17% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2021 season– 17th-best in FBS; Average: 11%.

#20 Oklahoma allowed 173 first down receptions in the 2022 season– 3rd-most in FBS

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