Arkansas State vs Southern Miss Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 7

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 14, 2022, 9:05 AM
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  • Total (Over/Under): points
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The Arkansas State Red Wolves (2-5) visit M.M. Roberts Stadium to take on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles (3-3) on Oct. 15. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT in Hattiesburg.

are betting favorites in Week 7, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Arkansas State vs. Southern Miss is total points.

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Arkansas State vs. Southern Miss Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 7

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Arkansas State
Southern Miss

Arkansas State vs Southern Miss Prediction for Week 7

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Southern Miss will win this game with 56% confidence.

Arkansas State vs Southern Miss Spread Prediction for Week 7

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Southern Miss will cover the spread with 52% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Arkansas State and Southern Miss, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


  • Arkansas State have covered the 1H Spread in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 92% ROI)
  • Arkansas State have covered the Spread in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • Arkansas State have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 90% ROI)
  • Arkansas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+4.90 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Arkansas State has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Southern Mississippi has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+7.70 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Southern Mississippi have covered the 1Q Spread in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.57 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Southern Mississippi have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Southern Mississippi has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.55 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Southern Mississippi has hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.40 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Arkansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Arkansas State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

    • Arkansas State is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
    • Arkansas State is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
    • Arkansas State is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

    Southern Miss Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Southern Miss has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

    • Southern Miss is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
    • Southern Miss is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
    • Southern Miss is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

    Arkansas State: Keys to the Game vs. Southern Miss

    Arkansas State is winless (0-7) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2020 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .404

    Southern Miss: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas State

    Southern Miss is winless (0-8) when not forcing a fumble — tied for worst in FBS; Average: .437

    Southern Miss is winless (0-10) when allowing 22 or more points — tied for worst in FBS; Average: .281

    Southern Miss is 1-6 (.143) when in a one score game since the 2020 season– 7th-worst in FBS; Average: .493

    Southern Miss is 1-12 (.077) when not forcing a fumble since the 2020 season– 9th-worst in FBS; Average: .443

    Matchup Notes for Arkansas State vs. Southern Miss

    Southern Miss has gained 867 yards on 56 receptions (15.5 YPR) this season — fifth-best among FBS skill players. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 16.0 Yards Per Reception this season — worst among NonP5 defenses.

    Southern Miss has gained 867 yards on 56 receptions (15.5 YPR) this season — fifth-best among FBS skill players. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 16.0 Yards Per Reception this season — worst among FBS defenses.

    Southern Miss’s WRs has gained 746 yards on 42 receptions (17.8 YPR) this season — tied for third-best among FBS WRs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 16.0 Yards Per Reception this season — worst among NonP5 defenses.

    Arkansas State Offensive Stats & Trends

    Arkansas State RBs have picked up first downs on 5 receptions on 3rd down this season– tied for 3rd most among FBS Teams

    Arkansas State RBs have been targeted 13 times on 3rd down this season– 2nd most among FBS Teams

    Arkansas State TEs have picked up first downs on 6 receptions on 3rd down this season– tied for most among FBS Teams

    Arkansas State TEs have 125 receiving yards on 3rd down this season– tied for most among FBS Teams

    Arkansas State RBs have 9 receptions on 3rd down this season– tied for 3rd most among FBS Teams

    Southern Miss Offensive Stats & Trends

    Southern Miss Skill Players have averaged 30.3 yards per reception (91 yards/3 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.9

    Southern Miss have been sacked on 25% of pass attempts (20/79) in the 4th quarter since last season– worst among Non-Power 5 Offenses; Average: 8%

    Southern Miss has gained 867 yards on 56 receptions (15.5 YPR) this season — fifth-best among FBS skill players. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 16.0 Yards Per Reception this season — worst among NonP5 defenses.

    Southern Miss have been sacked on 25% of pass attempts (20/79) in the 4th quarter since last season– worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 7%

    Southern Miss has gained 867 yards on 56 receptions (15.5 YPR) this season — fifth-best among FBS skill players. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 16.0 Yards Per Reception this season — worst among FBS defenses.

    Arkansas State Red Wolves Defensive Stats & Trends

    Arkansas State has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 9 of 94 attempts (10%) this season– worst in FBS; Average: 2%

    Arkansas State has allowed 18.3 yards per completion (986 yards/54 completions) this season– worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 13.0

    Arkansas State has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 9 of 94 attempts (10%) this season– worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 3%

    Arkansas State has not recorded a sack (42 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since last season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: 16.0

    Arkansas State has allowed 18.3 yards per completion (986 yards/54 completions) this season– worst in FBS; Average: 12.4

    Southern Miss Golden Eagles Defensive Stats & Trends

    Southern Miss has forced one fumble on 125 carries this season– 3rd worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 40.0

    Southern Miss has no interceptions (41 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since last season– tied for worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 33.2

    Southern Miss has allowed first downs on 42% of rush attempts in close and late situations this season– 3rd worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 22%

    Southern Miss has allowed first downs on 42% of rush attempts in close and late situations this season– 3rd worst in FBS; Average: 21%

    Southern Miss has sacked opposing QBs on 10% of pass attempts (14/136) on 1st down since last season– 3rd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 6%


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