Arkansas State vs TCU Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 3

• The TCU Horned Frogs are a -20 point favorite vs. the Arkansas State Red Wolves
• Arkansas State vs. TCU Total (Over/Under): 56.5 points
• TV Channel: ESPNU

Arkansas State (1-1) visit Amon G. Carter Stadium to take on TCU (1-1) on Sep. 19 in Fort Worth, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 pm.

The TCU Horned Frogs are betting favorites in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -20 (-108).

The Arkansas State vs. TCU Over/Under is 56.5 total points.

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Arkansas State vs. TCU Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Arkansas State vs TCU Prediction:

The winning team model predicts TCU will win this game with 89.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Arkansas State Red Wolves and the TCU Horned Frogs, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Arkansas State vs TCU Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts TCU will cover the spread with 65.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on TCU Horned Frogs vs Arkansas State Red Wolves and all games with BetMGM

Arkansas State Best Bets Today

• Arkansas State has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+7.10 Units / 11% ROI)
• Arkansas State have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
• Arkansas State has hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.05 Units / 22% ROI)
• Arkansas State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+1.95 Units / 29% ROI)
• Arkansas State have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.85 Units / 13% ROI)

TCU Best Bets Today

• TCU has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.75 Units / 43% ROI)
• TCU has hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.55 Units / 30% ROI)
• TCU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.40 Units / 30% ROI)
• TCU have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)
• TCU has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 13 games (+0.40 Units / 3% ROI)

Arkansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Arkansas State Red Wolves is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).

• Arkansas State is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
• Arkansas State is 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
• Arkansas State is 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI

TCU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

TCU Horned Frogs is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).

• TCU is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.05 Units / -100% ROI
• TCU is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
• TCU is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

Arkansas State: Keys to the Game vs. TCU

Arkansas State was 6-2 (.750) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-33rd-best in FBS; Average: .604

Arkansas State was 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-18th-best in FBS; Average: .632

Arkansas State was 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– 6th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .552

Arkansas State was 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– 15th-best in FBS; Average: .602

TCU: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas State

TCU was 9-2 (.818) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-17th-best in FBS; Average: .575

TCU was 8-1 (.889) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-12th-best in FBS; Average: .632

TCU was undefeated (8-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .668

TCU was 9-2 (.818) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-13th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .618

Matchup Notes for Arkansas State vs. TCU

TCU’s WRs averaged 25.5 targets per game last season — T-2nd-highest among Big 12 WRs. Arkansas State’s defense allowed 13.5 receptions per game to WRs last season — T-31st-worst among FBS defenses.

TCU’s QBs threw for 3,754 passing yards in 13 games (288.8 YPG) last season — 8th-best among FBS teams. Arkansas State’s defense allowed 244.9 passing yards per game last season — 24th-worst among FBS defenses.

TCU’s WRs had 225.2 receiving yards per game last season — 8th-best among FBS WRs. Arkansas State’s defense allowed 176.8 receiving yards per game to WRs last season — 26th-worst among FBS defenses.

Arkansas State’s offense threw for 3,374 passing yards in 13 games (259.5 YPG) last season — 33rd-best among FBS offenses. TCU’s defense allowed 245.6 passing yards per game last season — 3rd-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Arkansas State’s RBs averaged just 5.3 yards after the catch last season — 8th-worst among FBS RBs. TCU’s defense allowed 12.2 RAC last season — T-4th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Arkansas State’s QBs threw for 3,374 passing yards in 13 games (259.5 YPG) last season — 33rd-best among FBS teams. TCU’s defense allowed 245.6 passing yards per game last season — T-21st-worst among FBS defenses.

Arkansas State Offensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas State’s offense threw for 3,374 passing yards in 13 games (259.5 YPG) last season — 33rd-best among FBS offenses. TCU’s defense allowed 245.6 passing yards per game last season — 3rd-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Arkansas State’s RBs averaged just 5.3 yards after the catch last season — 8th-worst among FBS RBs. TCU’s defense allowed 12.2 RAC last season — T-4th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Arkansas State’s QBs threw for 3,374 passing yards in 13 games (259.5 YPG) last season — 33rd-best among FBS teams. TCU’s defense allowed 245.6 passing yards per game last season — T-21st-worst among FBS defenses.

Arkansas State’s RBs averaged just 5.3 yards after the catch last season — 8th-worst among FBS RBs. TCU’s defense allowed 12.2 RAC last season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.

Arkansas State’s offense threw for 3,374 passing yards in 13 games (259.5 YPG) last season — 33rd-best among FBS offenses. TCU’s defense allowed 245.6 passing yards per game last season — T-21st-worst among FBS defenses.

TCU Offensive Stats & Trends

TCU WRs averaged 19.6 yards per reception (314 yards/16 catches) in close and late situations last season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 13.9

TCU QBs had 5 completions for 20 or more yards on 1st down last week– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams

TCU’s WRs averaged 25.5 targets per game last season — T-2nd-highest among Big 12 WRs. Arkansas State’s defense allowed 13.5 receptions per game to WRs last season — T-31st-worst among FBS defenses.

TCU’s QBs threw for 3,754 passing yards in 13 games (288.8 YPG) last season — 8th-best among FBS teams. Arkansas State’s defense allowed 244.9 passing yards per game last season — 24th-worst among FBS defenses.

TCU WRs averaged 11.9 yards per target (740 yards/62 targets) in the 4th quarter last season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 7.6

Arkansas State Defensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas State allowed a Completion Pct of 77% (44 completions/57 attempts) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 56%

Arkansas State tackled opponents for a loss on 16 of 75 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– T-15th-best in FBS; Average: 14%.

Arkansas State allowed 25 rushing TDs on just 65 carries (2.6 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone last season– worst in FBS; Average: 4.6

Arkansas State sacked opposing QBs on just 5% of pass attempts (19/389) last season– T-18th-worst in FBS; Average: 7%

Arkansas State averaged a sack every 4.4 pass attempts (22 Pass Attempts/5 Sacks) in the Red Zone last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15.8

TCU Defensive Stats & Trends

TCU allowed passes of 40+ yards on 2 of 25 attempts (8%) last week– worst in the Big 12; Average: 2%

TCU’s opponents attempted two-point conversions on 20% of PATs last season– highest among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

TCU’s opponents attempted two-point conversions on 20% of PATs last season– T-2nd-highest in FBS; Average: 8%

TCU tackled opponents for a loss on just 63 of 496 rushing attempts (13% TFL%) last season– 2nd-worst in the Big 12; Average: 15%.

TCU’s opponents attempted two-point conversions on 20% of PATs last season– highest in the Big 12; Average: 7%

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