Arkansas State vs Texas State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 12

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 18, 2022, 10:40 AM
  • Texas State (3-7) are -5.5 point favorites vs Arkansas State (3-7)
  • Total (Over/Under): 51.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN+

The Arkansas State Red Wolves (3-8) visit Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium to take on the Texas State Bobcats (4-7) on Nov. 19. Kickoff is scheduled for 5:00pm EST in San Marcos.

are betting favorites in Week 12, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Arkansas State vs. Texas State is total points.

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Arkansas State vs. Texas State Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 12

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Arkansas State
Texas State

Arkansas State vs Texas State Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Texas State will win this game with 57.7% confidence.

Arkansas State vs Texas State Spread Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas State will cover the spread with 50.2% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Arkansas State and Texas State, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


  • Arkansas State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.65 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Arkansas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 away games (+5.05 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Arkansas State have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.95 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Arkansas State have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Arkansas State have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Texas State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.45 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Texas State has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+7.40 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Texas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.15 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Texas State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+4.95 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Texas State have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)

Arkansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Arkansas State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Arkansas State is 2-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -4 Units / -23.05% ROI
  • Arkansas State is 6-4 when betting the Over for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI
  • Arkansas State is 4-6 when betting the Under for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI

Texas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Texas State is 2-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.75 Units / 13.94% ROI
  • Texas State is 5-5 when betting the Over for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Texas State is 5-5 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI

Arkansas State: Keys to the Game vs. Texas State

Arkansas State is 3-16 (.158) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards — tied for 8th-worst in FBS; Average: .451

Arkansas State is winless (0-7) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2020 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .404

Arkansas State is 2-15 (.111) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush — 8th-worst in FBS; Average: .381

Arkansas State is winless (0-5) when losing at least one fumble — tied for worst in FBS; Average: .388

Texas State: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas State

Texas State is 3-13 (.176) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times — tied for 14th-worst in FBS; Average: .421

Texas State is 1-9 (.100) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs — 10th-worst in FBS; Average: .389

Texas State is 2-13 (.118) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush — tied for 9th-worst in FBS; Average: .381

Arkansas State Offensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas State RBs have averaged 1.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (36 yards / 20 touches) on 3rd and short since last season– 5th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 4.4

Arkansas State RBs have carried the ball 30 times on 3rd down since last season– 2nd fewest among FBS Teams

Arkansas State RBs have carried the ball 11 times on 3rd down this season– 3rd fewest among FBS Teams

Arkansas State RBs have averaged just 3.6 Yards per Carry (848 yards/236 carries) in the 1st half since last season– 2nd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 4.9

Arkansas State RBs have averaged 3.9 yards from scrimmage per touch (548 yards / 140 touches) on 1st down this season– tied for 5th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4

Texas State Offensive Stats & Trends

Texas State Skill Players have averaged just 9.9 yards per reception (4,282 yards/433 catches) since last season– 3rd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.2

Texas State Skill Players have averaged just 8.8 yards per reception (879 yards/100 catches) in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.0

Texas State WRs have averaged just 10.3 yards per reception (1,622 yards/158 catches) this season– 4th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 13.1

Texas State Skill Players have averaged just 7.6 yards per reception (542 yards/71 catches) on 1st down this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.3

Texas State have completed passes for 20+ yards on just 21 of their 338 total passing attempts (6%) this season– 3rd worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 11%

Arkansas State Red Wolves Defensive Stats & Trends

Arkansas State has not recorded a sack (58 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since last season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: 16.0

Arkansas State has not recorded a sack (58 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since last season– tied for worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 16.1

Arkansas State has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 16 of 267 attempts (6%) this season– worst in FBS; Average: 2%

Arkansas State has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 16 of 267 attempts (6%) this season– worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 2%

Arkansas State has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 26 of 619 attempts (4%) since last season– tied for 3rd worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 2%

Texas State Bobcats Defensive Stats & Trends

Texas State has allowed a Completion Pct of 73% (27 completions/37 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– 2nd worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 55%

Texas State has allowed a Completion Pct of 73% (27 completions/37 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– 3rd worst in FBS; Average: 54%

Texas State has allowed opponents to catch 27 of 37 passes (73% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long this season– 2nd worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 55%

Texas State has allowed 53.9 receiving yards per game (485/9) to RBs this season– worst in FBS; Average: 26.2

Texas State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 4 of 53 rushing attempts (7% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 5th worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.