Auburn vs Mississippi State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 10

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 04, 2022, 9:31 AM
  • (3-6) are point favorites vs (3-6)
  • Total (Over/Under): points
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The Auburn Tigers (3-6) visit Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-3) on Nov. 5. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Starkville.

are betting favorites in Week 10, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Auburn vs. Mississippi State is total points.

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Auburn vs. Mississippi State Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 10

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Auburn
Mississippi State

Auburn vs Mississippi State Prediction for Week 10

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts predicted-winning-team will win this game with confidence-percentage confidence.

Auburn vs Mississippi State Spread Prediction for Week 10

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts spread-winning-team will cover the spread with spread-confidence confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Auburn and Mississippi State, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Auburn Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Auburn players for Week 10, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • player high – away 

Best Mississippi State Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Mississippi State players for Week 10, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • player  high – home
  • team high – away
  • team high – home

Auburn Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Auburn has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Auburn is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
  • Auburn is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
  • Auburn is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Mississippi State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Mississippi State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Mississippi State is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
  • Mississippi State is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
  • Mississippi State is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Auburn: Keys to the Game vs. Mississippi State

Auburn is 2-7 (.200) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes — tied for 7th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .462

Auburn is 1-8 (.111) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays — tied for 6th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .435

Auburn is 2-9 (.167) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns — tied for 7th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .435

Auburn is 3-8 (.250) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times — tied for 14th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .417

Mississippi State: Keys to the Game vs. Auburn

#23 Mississippi State is 1-4 (.143) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2020 season– 9th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .386

#24 Mississippi State is undefeated (2-0) when rushing more than 30 times — tied for 7th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .447

#24 Mississippi State is 3-1 (.600) when rushing for more than 100 yards — tied for 12th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .450

#24 Mississippi State is 6-4 (.600) when not losing a fumble — tied for 12th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .443

Matchup Notes for Auburn vs. Mississippi State

Mississippi State has gained 2,500 yards on 261 receptions (just 9.6 YPR) this season — tied for third-worst among FBS skill players. Georgia’s defense has allowed just 10.0 Yards Per Reception this season — tied for fourth-best among P5 defenses.

Mississippi State has gained 7,422 yards on 779 receptions (just 9.5 YPR) since the 2021 season — worst among FBS skill players. Georgia’s defense has allowed just 10.0 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — best among SEC defenses.

Mississippi State has gained 2,500 yards on 261 receptions (just 9.6 YPR) this season — tied for worst among Power 5 skill players. Georgia’s defense has allowed just 10.0 Yards Per Reception this season — best among SEC defenses.

Auburn has 6 receiving touchdowns this season — tied for fourth-fewest among Power 5 skill players. Texas A&M’s defense has allowed 12 receiving touchdowns this season — third-most among SEC defenses.

Auburn’s WRs has gained 1,053 yards on 63 receptions (16.7 YPR) this season — fourth-best among FBS WRs. Texas A&M’s defense has allowed just 10.3 Yards Per Reception this season — second-best among SEC defenses.

Auburn’s WRs has gained 1,053 yards on 63 receptions (16.7 YPR) this season — best among Power 5 WRs. Texas A&M’s defense has allowed just 10.3 Yards Per Reception this season — second-best among SEC defenses.

Auburn Offensive Stats & Trends

Auburn WRs have averaged 20.1 yards per reception (282 yards/14 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 12.6

Auburn QBs have 12 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down this season– tied for 2nd most among FBS Teams

Auburn Skill Players have caught just 11 of 30 passes (37% Reception Pct) in close and late situations this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 63%

Auburn RBs have averaged 8.5 yards from scrimmage per touch (339 yards / 40 touches) in the 4th quarter this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4

Auburn has 6 receiving touchdowns this season — tied for fourth-fewest among Power 5 skill players. Texas A&M’s defense has allowed 12 receiving touchdowns this season — third-most among SEC defenses.

Mississippi State Offensive Stats & Trends

Mississippi State Skill Players have averaged 37.1 receptions per game (779/21) since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 19.8

Mississippi State WRs have averaged 25.8 receptions per game (541/21) since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 13.1

Mississippi State Skill Players have been targeted 51.0 times per game (1,072/21) since last season– highest among FBS Teams; Average: 29.9

Mississippi State WRs have averaged 25.8 receptions per game (541/21) since last season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.0

Mississippi State has gained 2,500 yards on 261 receptions (just 9.6 YPR) this season — tied for third-worst among FBS skill players. Georgia’s defense has allowed just 10.0 Yards Per Reception this season — tied for fourth-best among P5 defenses.

Auburn Tigers Defensive Stats & Trends

Auburn has intercepted 2 of 259 attempts (129.5 pass attempts per int.) this season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 38.0

Auburn has intercepted 2 of 259 attempts (129.5 pass attempts per int.) this season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 37.6

Auburn has allowed 18 rushing TDs in the Red Zone this season– tied for 3rd most in FBS

Auburn has tackled opponents for a loss on just 4 of 63 rushing attempts (6% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 5th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 15%.

Auburn has allowed 18 rushing TDs in the Red Zone this season– tied for most among Power 5 Teams

Mississippi State Bulldogs Defensive Stats & Trends

Mississippi State’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 16% of PATs this season– 5th highest in FBS; Average: 6%

Mississippi State has allowed 7.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (494 yards / 63 touches) on 3rd and short since last season– 3rd worst in FBS; Average: 5.1

Mississippi State has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 12 of 39 carries (31%) on 3rd and long since last season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 17%

Mississippi State has allowed 7.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (494 yards / 63 touches) on 3rd and short since last season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 5.0

Mississippi State has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 12 of 39 carries (31%) on 3rd and long since last season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.