- Kentucky is a -26.5 point favorite vs Ball State
- Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
- Watch the game on SEC Network
The Ball State Cardinals visit Kroger Field to take on the Kentucky Wildcats on Sep. 2. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT in Lexington.
– is a betting favorite in Week 1, with the spread sitting at ().
The Ball State vs. Kentucky Over/Under is total points.
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Ball State vs. Kentucky Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 1
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Ball State | |||
| Kentucky |
Ball State vs Kentucky Prediction for Week 1
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Kentucky will win this game with 95.0% confidence.
Ball State vs Kentucky Spread Prediction for Week 1
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Ball State will cover the spread with 67.5% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Ball State and Kentucky, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Kentucky Player Prop Best Bets Today
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Kentucky players for Week 1, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Tayvion Robinson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.60 Units / 36% ROI)
- Dane Key has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Barion Brown has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Ball State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Ball State has hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 22 games (+10.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ball State has hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.60 Units / 48% ROI)
- Ball State has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 away games (+5.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- Ball State have covered the 1H Spread in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Ball State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.50 Units / 44% ROI)
Kentucky Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Kentucky has hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 14 games (+11.90 Units / 77% ROI)
- Kentucky has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.90 Units / 68% ROI)
- Kentucky have covered the 1Q Spread in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- Kentucky have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- Kentucky has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.80 Units / 56% ROI)
Ball State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Ball State went against the spread last college football season ( Units / ROI).
- Ball State went 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.6 Units / 4.67% ROI
- Ball State went 3-9 when betting the Over for -6.9 Units / -52.27% ROI
- Ball State went 9-3 when betting the Under for +5.7 Units / 43.18% ROI
Kentucky Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Kentucky went against the spread last college football season ( Units / ROI).
- Kentucky went 5-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.45 Units / -31.95% ROI
- Kentucky went 1-12 when betting the Over for -12.2 Units / -85.31% ROI
- Kentucky went 12-1 when betting the Under for +10.9 Units / 76.22% ROI
Ball State: Keys to the Game vs. Kentucky
Ball State was winless (0-7) when allowing 200 or more passing yards in the 2022 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .459
Ball State is winless (0-9) when losing at least one fumble since the 2021 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .394
Ball State is winless (0-4) when allowing 3 or more sacks since the 2021 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .288
Kentucky: Keys to the Game vs. Ball State
Kentucky is 11-6 (.647) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season– tied for 12th-best in FBS; Average: .422
Kentucky is 9-2 (.750) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season– tied for 14th-best in FBS; Average: .558
Kentucky is 11-1 (.786) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2021 season– 15th-best in FBS; Average: .630
Kentucky is 8-2 (.667) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season– tied for 8th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .480
Matchup Notes for Ball State vs. Kentucky
Ray Davis (KEN) averaged just 5.8 yards after the catch in the 2022 season — tied for ninth-worst of Qualified Power 5 Running Backss. Ball State’s defense allowed just 9.7 RAC in the 2022 season — tied for fourth-best among FBS defenses.
Ray Davis (KEN) averaged just 5.8 yards after the catch in the 2022 season — tied for ninth-worst of Qualified Power 5 Running Backss. Ball State’s defense allowed just 9.7 RAC in the 2022 season — second-best among NonP5 defenses.
Ray Davis (KEN) averaged just 5.8 yards after the catch in the 2022 season — tied for ninth-worst of Qualified Power 5 Running Backss. Ball State’s defense allowed just 6.3 RAC to RBs in the 2022 season — tied for 20th-best among FBS defenses.
Ball State’s TEs had 88 receptions in 12 games (7.3 per game) in the 2022 season — second-best among FBS TEs. Kentucky’s defense allowed just 15.8 receptions per game in the 2022 season — tied for ninth-best among FBS defenses.
Ball State’s WRs gained 1,539 yards on 153 receptions (just 10.1 YPR) in the 2022 season — third-worst among FBS WRs. Kentucky’s defense allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception in the 2022 season — tied for 16th-best among FBS defenses.
Ball State’s TEs had 88 receptions in 12 games (7.3 per game) in the 2022 season — second-best among FBS TEs. Kentucky’s defense allowed just 15.8 receptions per game in the 2022 season — second-best among SEC defenses.
Ball State Offensive Stats & Trends
Ball State WRs averaged a touchdown every 30.6 receptions (153 Rec/5 TDs) in the 2022 season– 4th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.0
Ball State’s TEs had 88 receptions in 12 games (7.3 per game) in the 2022 season — second-best among FBS TEs. Kentucky’s defense allowed just 15.8 receptions per game in the 2022 season — tied for ninth-best among FBS defenses.
Ball State TEs averaged 7.3 receptions per game (88/12) in the 2022 season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.2
Ball State’s WRs gained 1,539 yards on 153 receptions (just 10.1 YPR) in the 2022 season — third-worst among FBS WRs. Kentucky’s defense allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception in the 2022 season — tied for 16th-best among FBS defenses.
Ball State’s TEs had 88 receptions in 12 games (7.3 per game) in the 2022 season — second-best among FBS TEs. Kentucky’s defense allowed just 15.8 receptions per game in the 2022 season — second-best among SEC defenses.
Kentucky Offensive Stats & Trends
Kentucky RBs have averaged 6.5 Yards per Carry (1,049 yards/162 carries) in the 4th quarter since the 2021 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0
Kentucky’s RBs averaged just 6.3 yards after the catch in the 2022 season — tied for 28th-worst among FBS RBs. Ball State’s defense allowed just 6.3 RAC to RBs in the 2022 season — tied for 20th-best among FBS defenses.
Kentucky’s RBs averaged just 6.3 yards after the catch in the 2022 season — tied for 28th-worst among FBS RBs. Ball State’s defense allowed just 9.7 RAC in the 2022 season — tied for fourth-best among FBS defenses.
Kentucky’s RBs averaged just 6.3 yards after the catch in the 2022 season — tied for 28th-worst among FBS RBs. Ball State’s defense allowed just 9.7 RAC in the 2022 season — second-best among NonP5 defenses.
Kentucky were sacked on 14% of pass attempts (47/349) in the 2022 season– worst among Power 5 Offenses; Average: 6%
Ball State Cardinals Defensive Stats & Trends
Ball State allowed a Completion Pct of just 33% (5 completions/15 attempts) on 3rd and short in the 2022 season– tied for 6th-best in FBS; Average: 61%
Ball State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 44% (47 completions/106 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2021 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 54%
Ball State allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 31 of 414 attempts (7%) in the 2022 season– tied for 4th-worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 10%
Ball State allowed just 11.4 yards per completion (2,738 yards/240 completions) in the 2022 season– tied for 12th-best in FBS; Average: 12.6
Ball State opponents has averaged 23.9 Passing Attempts per TD (812 Pass Attempts/34 Passing TDs) since the 2021 season– 31st-best in FBS; Average: 19.9
Kentucky Wildcats Defensive Stats & Trends
Kentucky allowed 180.5 Passing Yards per game (2,347/13) in the 2022 season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: 241.4
Kentucky tackled opponents for a loss on just 4 of 60 rushing attempts (7% TFL%) in the Red Zone in the 2022 season– 6th-worst in FBS; Average: 15%.
Kentucky allowed just 170.1 receiving yards per game (2,211/13) in the 2022 season– 4th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 228.6
Kentucky tackled opponents for a loss on just 50 of 431 rushing attempts (12% TFL%) in the 2022 season– 11th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.
Kentucky has allowed just 133.2 receiving yards per game (3,462/26) to WRs since the 2021 season– 7th-best in FBS; Average: 167.7
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