Baylor vs Auburn Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 1

• Auburn Tigers is a -7.5 point favorite vs. Baylor Bears
• Baylor vs. Auburn Total (Over/Under): 58.5 points
• TV Channel: ABC | DIS+

Baylor (0-0) visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on Auburn (0-0) on Sep. 5 in Atlanta, GA. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 pm.

The Auburn Tigers are betting favorites in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-108).

The Baylor vs. Auburn Over/Under is 58.5 total points.

Bet now on Auburn Tigers vs Baylor Bears & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Baylor vs. Auburn Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Baylor vs Auburn Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Auburn will win this game with 63.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Baylor Bears and Auburn Tigers, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Baylor vs Auburn Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Auburn will cover the spread with 55.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Auburn Tigers vs Baylor Bears and all games with BetMGM

Baylor Best Bets Today

• Baylor has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
• Baylor has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.85 Units / 50% ROI)
• Baylor has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 4 games (+1.95 Units / 42% ROI)
• Baylor has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.75 Units / 26% ROI)
• Baylor has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 3 away games (+1.50 Units / 50% ROI)

Auburn Best Bets Today

• Auburn has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+5.75 Units / 9% ROI)
• Auburn has hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
• Auburn has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.90 Units / 47% ROI)
• Auburn has hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.80 Units / 59% ROI)
• Auburn has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.20 Units / 23% ROI)

Baylor: Keys to the Game vs. Auburn

Baylor was 1-4 (.200) when in a one score game last season– T-6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514

Baylor was 1-10 (.091) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties in the 2023 season– T-4th-worst in FBS; Average: .533

Baylor was 2-5 (.286) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-37th-worst in FBS; Average: .420

Baylor was 1-10 (.091) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities in the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .502

Auburn: Keys to the Game vs. Baylor

Auburn was winless (0-5) when in a one score game last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514

Auburn was winless (0-6) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .462

Auburn was winless (0-6) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .420

Auburn was 1-4 (.167) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards last season– T-24th-worst in FBS; Average: .379

Matchup Notes for Baylor vs. Auburn

Auburn’s TEs gained 215 yards on 26 receptions (just 8.3 YPR) last season — worst among SEC TEs. Baylor’s defense allowed just 10.9 Yards Per Reception last season — 4th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Auburn’s TEs had 26 receptions in 12 games (just 2.2 per game) last season — 4th-worst among P5 TEs. Baylor’s defense allowed just 17.8 receptions per game last season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Auburn’s WRs gained 1,990 yards on 173 receptions (just 11.5 YPR) last season — T-2nd-worst among SEC WRs. Baylor’s defense allowed just 10.9 Yards Per Reception last season — 4th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Baylor’s WRs averaged 28.2 targets per game last season — highest among Big 12 WRs. Auburn’s defense allowed 13.8 receptions per game to WRs last season — T-24th-worst among FBS defenses.

Baylor’s TEs gained 800 yards on 61 receptions (13.1 YPR) last season — 4th-best among Big 12 TEs. Auburn’s defense allowed 11.6 Yards Per Reception last season — 5th-worst among SEC defenses.

Baylor’s WRs averaged 28.2 targets per game last season — highest among Power 5 WRs. Auburn’s defense allowed 13.8 receptions per game to WRs last season — T-24th-worst among FBS defenses.

Baylor Offensive Stats & Trends

Baylor TEs had 5 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter last season– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams

Baylor Skill Players were targeted 42.0 times per game (504/12) last season– highest among Big 12 Teams; Average: 30.3

Baylor Skill Players averaged 25.8 receptions per game (309/12) last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 19.7

Baylor’s WRs averaged 28.2 targets per game last season — highest among Big 12 WRs. Auburn’s defense allowed 13.8 receptions per game to WRs last season — T-24th-worst among FBS defenses.

Baylor’s TEs gained 800 yards on 61 receptions (13.1 YPR) last season — 4th-best among Big 12 TEs. Auburn’s defense allowed 11.6 Yards Per Reception last season — 5th-worst among SEC defenses.

Auburn Offensive Stats & Trends

Auburn’s TEs gained 215 yards on 26 receptions (just 8.3 YPR) last season — worst among SEC TEs. Baylor’s defense allowed just 10.9 Yards Per Reception last season — 4th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Auburn’s TEs had 26 receptions in 12 games (just 2.2 per game) last season — 4th-worst among P5 TEs. Baylor’s defense allowed just 17.8 receptions per game last season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Auburn TEs had no touchdowns on 26 receptions last season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.4

Auburn’s WRs gained 1,990 yards on 173 receptions (just 11.5 YPR) last season — T-2nd-worst among SEC WRs. Baylor’s defense allowed just 10.9 Yards Per Reception last season — 4th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Auburn TEs averaged just 2.2 receptions per game (26/12) last season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 3.8

Baylor Defensive Stats & Trends

Baylor did not record a sack (36 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 14.9

Baylor allowed first downs on 29% of rush attempts in the Red Zone last season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 19%

Baylor allowed 8.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (343 yards / 40 touches) on 3rd and short last season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 5.1

Baylor tackled opponents for a loss on just 51 of 482 rushing attempts (11% TFL%) last season– 2nd-worst in the Big 12; Average: 15%.

Baylor allowed a Completion Pct of 69% (27 completions/39 attempts) in the Red Zone last season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 55%

Auburn Defensive Stats & Trends

Auburn tackled opponents for a loss on 12 of 64 rushing attempts (19% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– T-29th-best in FBS; Average: 14%.

Auburn allowed first downs on 6% of rush attempts in the Red Zone last season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 18%

Auburn allowed first downs on 15% of rush attempts last season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 23%

Auburn allowed a Completion Pct of 62% (25 completions/40 attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-28th-worst in FBS; Average: 54%

Auburn allowed first downs on 15% of rush attempts last season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 22%

Bet now on Auburn Tigers vs Baylor Bears and all games with BetMGM

More College Football Betting at BetMGM

College football betting is available at the online sportsbook throughout the season.

Whether you’re a first-time bettor checking out the best sportsbook promos, a casual fan betting on Indiana football national championship odds, Michigan football odds, or Ohio State odds this week, or a longtime diehard breaking down trends for live betting, there are entertainment options for everyone.

Visit the sportsbook today to place a college football bet online!