Baylor vs Cincinnati Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 9

BetMGM Betting Oct 24, 2025, 3:14 PM

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FILE - Cincinnati head coach Scott Satterfield, center, leads the team onto the field before an NCAA college football game against Central Florida, Oct. 12, 2024, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

Cincinnati is a -4.5 point favorite vs. Baylor
Baylor vs. Cincinnati Total (Over/Under): 67.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN2

Baylor (4-3) visit Nippert Stadium to take on Cincinnati (6-1) on Oct. 25 in Cincinnati, OH. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00pm EDT.

Cincinnati is a betting favorite in Week 9, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-105).

The Baylor vs. Cincinnati Over/Under is 67.5 total points.

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Baylor vs. Cincinnati Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Baylor	+4.5 -115	67.5 -110	155
Cincinnati	-4.5 -105	67.5 -110	-190

Baylor vs Cincinnati Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Cincinnati will win this game with 64.8% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Baylor and Cincinnati, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Baylor vs Cincinnati Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Cincinnati will cover the spread with 52.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Baylor Best Bets Today

Baylor has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.70 Units / 40% ROI)
Baylor has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.30 Units / 11% ROI)
Baylor has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.10 Units / 14% ROI)
Baylor has hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.72 Units / 26% ROI)
Baylor has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.65 Units / 22% ROI)

Cincinnati Best Bets Today

Cincinnati has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.35 Units / 33% ROI)
Cincinnati has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.80 Units / 52% ROI)
Cincinnati have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.70 Units / 51% ROI)
Cincinnati has hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 46% ROI)
Cincinnati has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.60 Units / 20% ROI)

Baylor Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Baylor is 1-6 against the spread this college football season (-5.75 Units / -73.25% ROI).

Baylor is 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.2 Units / -0.98% ROI
Baylor is 5-2 when betting the Over for +2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI
Baylor is 2-5 when betting the Under for -3.5 Units / -45.45% ROI

Cincinnati Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Cincinnati iss 5-2 against the spread this college football season (+2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI).

Cincinnati is 5-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.75 Units / 10.78% ROI
Cincinnati is 5-2 when betting the Over for +2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI
Cincinnati is 2-5 when betting the Under for -3.5 Units / -45.45% ROI

Baylor: Keys to the Game vs. Cincinnati

Baylor has tackled opponents for a loss on just 27 of 283 rushing attempts (10% TFL%) this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 15%.

Baylor did not record a sack (36 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 14.9

Baylor has sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (7/218) this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 7%

Baylor has averaged a sack every 31.1 pass attempts (218 Pass Attempts/7 Sacks) this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 14.5

Baylor has tackled opponents for a loss on just 89 of 774 rushing attempts (12% TFL%) since the 2024 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 15%.

Cincinnati: Keys to the Game vs. Baylor

Baylor was 6-4 (.600) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: .429

Baylor was 2-5 (.286) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-37th-worst in FBS; Average: .420

Baylor is 8-1 (.889) when allowing less than 3 explosive runs since the 2024 season– T-10th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .737

Baylor was 2-7 (.222) when rushing more than 30 times in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .665

Matchup Notes for Baylor vs. Cincinnati