Baylor vs Colorado Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 4

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Colorado cornerback Travis Hunter (12) in the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Sept. 9, 2023, in Boulder, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
(AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 20, 2024, 1:40 PM
  • Colorado is a -1.5 point favorite vs. Baylor
  • Baylor vs. Colorado Total(Over/Under): 52 points
  • TV Channel: FOX

The Baylor Bears (2-1) visit Folsom Field to take on the Colorado Buffaloes (2-1) on Sep. 21 in Boulder, CO. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT.

Colorado is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-115).

The Baylor vs. Colorado Over/Under is 52 total points.

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Baylor vs. Colorado Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Baylor+1.5 -10552 -110+105
Colorado -1.5 -11552 -110-125

Baylor vs Colorado Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Colorado will win this game with 52.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Baylor and Colorado, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Baylor vs Colorado Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Colorado will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Baylor has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.60 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Baylor has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Baylor have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Baylor has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 12 games (+0.80 Units / 6% ROI)
  • Baylor has hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 away games (+0.75 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Colorado has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Colorado has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.95 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Colorado has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.40 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Colorado has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.85 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Colorado have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Baylor players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Baylor Player Prop Bets Today

  • Dominic Richardson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Sawyer Robertson has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 95% ROI)
  • Richard Reese has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Hal Presley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Sawyer Robertson has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 51% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Colorado players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Colorado Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Jimmy Horn Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.70 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Shedeur Sanders has hit the Passing Yards Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.70 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Shedeur Sanders has hit the TD Passes Over in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+2.20 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Travis Hunter has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Charlie Offerdahl has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 77% ROI)

Baylor Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Baylor is 3-0 against the spread this college football season (+3 Units / 90.91% ROI).

  • Baylor is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
  • Baylor is 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
  • Baylor is 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI

Colorado Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Colorado is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).

  • Colorado is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 12.27% ROI
  • Colorado is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Colorado is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI

Baylor: Keys to the Game vs. Colorado

Baylor is winless (0-5) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .438

Baylor is winless (0-10) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .346

Baylor is 1-7 (.083) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .417

Baylor is 1-11 (.083) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– 9th-worst in FBS; Average: .386

Colorado: Keys to the Game vs. Baylor

Colorado is 1-13 (.071) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2022 season– 5th-worst in FBS; Average: .399

Colorado is 2-7 (.222) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-22nd-worst in FBS; Average: .497

Colorado is 3-18 (.143) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2022 season– T-8th-worst in FBS; Average: .392

Colorado is 2-18 (.100) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2022 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .412

Matchup Notes for Baylor vs. Colorado

Colorado’s QBs has thrown for 4,505 passing yards in 15 games (300.3 YPG) since the 2023 season — 10th-best among FBS teams. Baylor’s defense has allowed just 204.3 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among Big 12 defenses.

Colorado’s TEs has 3 receptions in 2 games (just 1.5 per game) this season — 5th-worst among P5 TEs. Baylor’s defense has allowed just 7.0 receptions per game this season — best among FBS defenses.

Colorado’s TEs has 34 receptions in 13 games (just 2.6 per game) since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among Big 12 TEs. Baylor’s defense has allowed just 15.6 receptions per game since the 2023 season — best among Big 12 defenses.

Baylor’s WRs has gained 443 yards on 26 receptions (17.0 YPR) this season — 15th-best among FBS WRs. Colorado’s defense has allowed just 10.1 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.

Baylor’s WRs has just 0.5 receiving touchdowns per game since the 2023 season — T-9th-worst among FBS WRs. Colorado’s defense has allowed 2.0 receiving touchdowns per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Baylor has just 1.3 receiving touchdowns per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among Big 12 skill players. Colorado’s defense has allowed 2.0 receiving touchdowns per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Baylor Offensive Stats & Trends

Baylor’s WRs has gained 443 yards on 26 receptions (17.0 YPR) this season — 15th-best among FBS WRs. Colorado’s defense has allowed just 10.1 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.

Baylor Skill Players have averaged 25.8 yards per reception (103 yards/4 catches) with 4-6 yards to go this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.2

Baylor have gone for two on 22% of PATs since the 2023 season– highest among Big 12 Offenses; Average: 8%

Baylor TEs have 20 receptions in close and late situations since the 2023 season– most among Big 12 Teams

Baylor WRs have averaged 21.0 yards per reception (755 yards/36 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since the 2022 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.2

Colorado Offensive Stats & Trends

Colorado’s QBs has thrown for 4,505 passing yards in 15 games (300.3 YPG) since the 2023 season — 10th-best among FBS teams. Baylor’s defense has allowed just 204.3 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among Big 12 defenses.

Colorado’s TEs has 3 receptions in 2 games (just 1.5 per game) this season — 5th-worst among P5 TEs. Baylor’s defense has allowed just 7.0 receptions per game this season — best among FBS defenses.

Colorado’s TEs has 34 receptions in 13 games (just 2.6 per game) since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among Big 12 TEs. Baylor’s defense has allowed just 15.6 receptions per game since the 2023 season — best among Big 12 defenses.

Colorado’s TEs has 34 receptions in 13 games (just 2.6 per game) since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among Big 12 TEs. Baylor’s defense has allowed just 15.6 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 10th-best among FBS defenses.

Colorado’s offense has thrown for 999 passing yards in 3 games (333.0 YPG) this season — 9th-best among FBS offenses. Baylor’s defense has allowed just 75.7 passing yards per game this season — best among FBS defenses.

Baylor Bears Defensive Stats & Trends

Baylor has not recorded a sack (40 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 14.9

Baylor has not recorded a sack (80 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15.5

Baylor has not allowed any rushing touchdowns on 134 rushes this season– T-best in the Big 12; Average: 41.1

Baylor has not recorded a sack (40 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 14.8

Baylor has not recorded a sack (80 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.9

Colorado Buffaloes Defensive Stats & Trends

Colorado has allowed 85 TDs in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– worst in FBS; Average: 2.1

Colorado has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 40 rushing attempts on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 11%.

Colorado has allowed 126 TDs since the 2022 season– worst in FBS; Average: 3.1

Colorado has allowed 188 first down receptions since the 2023 season– most in the Big 12

Colorado has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 40 rushing attempts on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 10%.


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.