Baylor vs Texas Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 25, 2022, 10:30 AM
  • Texas (7-4) are -8.5 point favorites vs Baylor (6-5)
  • Total (Over/Under): 56 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN Networks

The Baylor Bears (6-6) visit Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium to take on the Texas Longhorns (8-4) on Nov. 25. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Austin.

are betting favorites in Week 13, with the spread sitting at ().

The Baylor vs. Texas Over/Under is total points.

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Baylor vs. Texas Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 13

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Baylor
Texas

Baylor vs Texas Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Texas will win this game with 61.8% confidence.

Baylor vs Texas Spread Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas will cover the spread with 69.8% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Baylor and Texas, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Baylor Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Baylor players for Week 13, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ben Sims has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Blake Shapen has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 69% ROI)

Best Texas Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Texas players for Week 13, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Quinn Ewers has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Xavier Worthy has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Bijan Robinson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 9 games (+2.35 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Quinn Ewers has hit the TD Passes Under in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+2.00 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Ja’Tavion Sanders has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Baylor has hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.25 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Baylor have covered the Spread in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.30 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Baylor has hit the 1H Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games (+7.10 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Baylor have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.90 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Baylor have covered the 1Q Spread in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.55 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Texas have covered the 1H Spread in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.05 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Texas has hit the Game Total Under in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • Texas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+4.50 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Texas have covered the 1Q Spread in 12 of their last 21 games (+4.25 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Texas has hit the 1Q Moneyline in their last 4 games (+3.00 Units / 44% ROI)

Baylor Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Baylor has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Baylor is 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.75 Units / -13.16% ROI
  • Baylor is 6-4 when betting the Over for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI
  • Baylor is 4-6 when betting the Under for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI

Texas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Texas is 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.65 Units / -14.29% ROI
  • Texas is 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
  • Texas is 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI

Baylor: Keys to the Game vs. Texas

Baylor is undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2021 season– tied for best in FBS; Average: .560

Baylor is 14-4 (.636) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2021 season– 6th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .429

Baylor is 16-4 (.727) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2021 season– tied for 11th-best in FBS; Average: .495

Baylor is 12-4 (.600) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season– 15th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .473

Texas: Keys to the Game vs. Baylor

#24 Texas is 7-1 (.875) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns — 9th-best in FBS; Average: .504

#24 Texas is 1-5 (.167) when losing at least one fumble since the 2021 season– 13th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .331

#24 Texas is 4-8 (.333) when in a one score game since the 2021 season– tied for 11th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .495

#24 Texas is 5-1 (.625) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns — 10th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .429

Matchup Notes for Baylor vs. Texas

Texas’s RBs has gained 522 yards on 42 receptions (12.4 YPR) this season — fourth-best among FBS RBs. Baylor’s defense has allowed just 11.2 Yards Per Reception this season — fifth-best among Big 12 defenses.

Texas’s RBs has 4 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for most among FBS RBs. Baylor’s defense has allowed 7 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for fourth-most among Big 12 defenses.

Texas’s RBs has 9 receiving touchdowns since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-most among FBS RBs. Baylor’s defense has allowed 27 receiving touchdowns since the 2021 season — second-fewest among Big 12 defenses.

Baylor’s offense has 28 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for second-most among FBS offenses. Texas’s defense has allowed 8 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — third-fewest among Big 12 defenses.

Baylor’s offense has 28 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for second-most among FBS offenses. Texas’s defense has allowed 11 rushing TDs this season — third-fewest among Big 12 defenses.

Baylor’s offense has 33 rushing touchdowns this season — tied for most among FBS offenses. Texas’s defense has allowed 11 rushing TDs this season — third-fewest among Big 12 defenses.

Baylor Offensive Stats & Trends

Baylor RBs have averaged 8.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (209 yards / 25 touches) on 3rd and short this season– 5th best among FBS Teams; Average: 4.3

Baylor RBs have rushed for 11 TDs in the 4th quarter this season– most among FBS Teams

Baylor RBs have rushed for 21 TDs in the Red Zone — tied for 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Baylor WRs have averaged 18.3 yards per reception (752 yards/41 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 12.4

Baylor RBs have averaged 7.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (419 yards / 55 touches) on 3rd and short since last season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 4.4

Texas Offensive Stats & Trends

#24 Texas RBs have picked up first downs on 9 receptions in the Red Zone since last season– tied for most among FBS Teams

#24 Texas RBs have caught 4 touchdown passes in the Red Zone — tied for most among FBS Teams

#24 Texas WRs have caught just 6 of 23 passes (26% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 54%

#24 Texas WRs have averaged just 8.1 yards per reception (122 yards/15 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– 3rd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 12.7

#24 Texas Skill Players have averaged just 9.4 yards per reception (160 yards/17 catches) on 3rd and long this season– 4th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 13.3

Baylor Bears Defensive Stats & Trends

Baylor has sacked opposing QBs just once on 79 pass attempts in the Red Zone since last season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16.1

Baylor has sacked opposing QBs just once on 79 pass attempts in the Red Zone since last season– 4th worst in FBS; Average: 16.0

Baylor has tackled opponents for a loss on just 3 of 63 rushing attempts (5% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 15%.

Baylor has not recorded a sack (34 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16.0

Baylor has allowed first downs on 71% of pass attempts on 3rd and short since last season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 51%

Texas Longhorns Defensive Stats & Trends

#24 Texas has allowed just 11.1 yards per completion (5,349 yards/482 completions) since last season– 3rd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 12.4

#24 Texas has allowed a Completion Pct of just 34% (13 completions/38 attempts) in the Red Zone — 2nd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 53%

#24 Texas has allowed a Completion Pct of 66% (482 completions/731 attempts) since the 2021 season– 3rd-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 61%

#24 Texas has allowed a Completion Pct of just 34% (13 completions/38 attempts) in the Red Zone — 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 53%

#24 Texas has allowed 3.0 touchdowns per interception (6 TDs allowed, and 2 INT) in the Red Zone — tied for 5th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 8.7


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.