College Football Predictions & Best Bets for Week 10

As the calendar flips to November, it’s now time for the college football sharps to make their money. With playoff rankings coming next week and a top class of contenders firmly established, expect to lay too many points with ranked teams and other popular favorites.

It’s Week 10. Come dumpster diving with me. 

Missouri State vs. Florida International Prediction

Missouri State is consistently priced with totals in the 50s. The Bears consistently go under against the closing number, too, with six cashes in seven games this year.

For whatever reason, the market is not correctly adjusting on Missouri State games this season.

Warning: This is a Wednesday nighter.

Prediction: Under 50.5

Tulane vs. UTSA Prediction

This feels incredibly square, and I don’t care. Tulane is arguably the most-talented and best-coached team in G5 football this season. UTSA is a mid-table American squad that just got blasted by North Texas 55-17. 

I’m not saying you should expect another 38 point game, but this number just feels way too light. My guess is that it’s a conservative price because it’s a weeknight (Thursday) road game, and those outcomes can go in a lot of different directions, but I think the competence gap far outweighs any travel weirdness. 

In my opinion, this number should be at least Tulane -6.

Prediction: Tulane -3.5

Ohio State vs. Penn State Prediction

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. What was expected to be a heavyweight battle for the soul of the Big Ten is now just another noon kickoff.

Ohio State’s defense has been arguably the best unit in college football. Penn State will be forced to play this game with backup quarterbacks, which means it’ll be Ethan Grunkemeyer making his second career start in Columbus against the Buckeyes’ defense. Yikes.

I am expecting a total bludgeoning, and the best way to go after that in my opinion is to target the Penn State team total. At 10.5, this is a pretty nice number, since the book is giving you the high side of 10. 

Prediction: Penn State Team Total Under 10.5

Baylor vs. UCF Prediction

Ahead of this season, UCF was left for dead at the bottom of the Big 12. But the Knights have been vaguely respectable with Scott Frost back in Orlando, running the ball and playing surprisingly good defense for what I would call a pretty average roster.

Baylor, on the other hand, has mostly been a disappointment this season. The Bears cannot stop the run at all, which is a pretty big disappointment for a defense-first coach like Dave Aranda. And when you’re this bad, it’s hard for me to understand how you’re laying any number north of three in any conference game against a competent opponent.

UCF can run the ball, win time of possession, and frustrate Sawyer Robertson by merely keeping the ball out of his hands. I like the points here with UCF. I think they have a chance to win the game on the field, too, which makes +155 an interesting side at cost. 

Prediction: UCF +4.5; UCF +155

Florida vs. Georgia Prediction

Florida is a good team that’s been put in a lousy situation at a program level by constantly playing an impossibly hard schedule. Let’s take the names off the jerseys and look at their last six games:

• Played home game against arguably the best G5 team this year (lost by two)
• Played road game at arguably toughest environment in college football (lost by 10)
• Played road game at in-state rival who is ranked in the top 10 (lost by 19)
• Played home game against preseason No. 1 team (won by eight)
• Played road game against a still-undefeated playoff contender (lost by 17)
• Played home game against most improved team in the conference (won by two)

There are a lot of teams that would go 2-4 against that schedule. There are probably even more teams that would be worse than 2-4. But the Gators punted on the season and fired their coach.

Did I mention they still have three more ranked teams to go? Plus a fourth game against another rival that has a head-to-head win against Alabama this year?

Florida is under .500 this year with only two FBS wins. They’re only +7.5 against Georgia in this spot because the team is legitimately pretty good. There’s also the fact that Georgia’s defensive backfield is unusually questionable this year, which could mean a big day for DJ Lagway. I like Florida to keep it close.

Prediction: Florida +7.5

Kansas vs. Oklahoma State Prediction

Oklahoma State is in the midst of its most dreadful season in a long time. But the Cowboys have made some offensive changes since Mike Gundy was fired.

Admittedly, those changes were difficult to see last week in Lubbock. But since most teams look bad against the Red Raiders, let’s instead look back two weeks ago at Oklahoma State’s game against Cincinnati. The Pokes played a tight three quarters before turnovers and fourth down leverage finally shot the Bearcats far into CoverLand. 

Oklahoma State is getting a ton of points here against a Kansas team that hasn’t looked all that impressive for most of the last month and a half. This is a great time to buy low on a Cowboys team that may be moving from sucky to scrappy.

Prediction: Oklahoma State +24.5

Tennessee vs. Oklahoma Prediction

John Mateer doesn’t look 100%, and SEC defenses now have the book on how to play this Sooners team. This number is baking in a lot of respect for what Oklahoma has been all season, but I’m not sure it’s fully assessing what the Sooners are right now, in Week 10. 

I like the Vols to win by double digits. 

Prediction: Tennessee -3.5

College Football Best Bets: Week 10

• Missouri State/FIU Under 50.5
• Tulane -3.5
• Penn State Team Total Under 10.5
• UCF +4.5
• Florida +7.5
• Oklahoma State +24.5
• Tennessee -3.5