College Football Predictions & Best Bets for Week 11

With only a few weeks to go in the regular season, be very careful when handicapping college football spreads.

Teams that have been bad for most of the season may have found some late-season juice. In other cases, good teams with something to play for may have their future success overrepresented in the odds.

Here’s what I like for Week 11. 

Memphis vs. Tulane Prediction

Memphis could have the inside position for the G5 playoff bid this year. But Tulane has multiple P4 wins this year and is being underpriced here simply because it’s coming off a loss to UTSA. 

This should be a competitive game with major conference championship implications. While the early market is gobbling up Memphis, I’d much prefer to catch the points in this game. 

That said, consider your buy point here, as this number could get to seven before kickoff on Friday.

Prediction: Tulane +6.5

West Virginia vs. Colorado Prediction

I’m always careful about making dramatic declarations about underperforming teams. But given the 105 points that Colorado has allowed in its last two games, and the health news surrounding Deion Sanders, it really seems like the Buffs could be mailing it in ahead of a coaching change in Boulder.

With West Virginia playing three good halves in a row, this is a bad time to be traveling to Morgantown, which will be typically rabid in its support of another late-season win during this first season of the RichRod second marriage. 

I would lay this with the Mountaineers and consider some alt lines, too. That upper tail could be quite long against Colorado this month. 

Prediction: West Virginia -6.5

JMU vs. Marshall Prediction

I made a lot of hay out of JMU’s under streak during the first half of the season. In the last two games, the Dukes have exploded offensively, blasting totals over the closing number.

A lot of my Harrisonburg friends think JMU will score 50 points in every game remaining in the regular season. And what a pretty thought that is! But back here in reality, I think a trip to Huntington is where JMU’s offense cools off a bit. 

The defense should remain as good as ever. JMU opponents haven’t scored after halftime since September. 

Prediction: Under 55.5

Missouri State vs. Liberty Prediction

I had this last week, and I’m going back to the well. Missouri State has become one of the best under teams in college football this season because their games aren’t priced correctly. 

The Bears should see totals in the mid-to-high 40s. As long as they’re in the 50s against offensively average or worse teams, I’m going to keep hitting it. 

Prediction: Under 51.5

Duke vs. UConn Prediction

UConn has quietly been a decent non-power team this year, either winning outright or losing a one-possession game in every game so far this year.

Duke is underrated in its own right, and so this could roll into a big loss for the Huskies. But generally speaking, there’s a lot to like here for the Huskies. This is a road game for Duke where the Blue Devils are stepping out of conference in the thick of an ACC title race to play a random game in Connecticut. 

Another one-score loss feels about right here for UConn.

Prediction: UConn +9.5

TCU vs. Iowa State Prediction

In four home games this season, TCU has scored 42 points twice and 35 points twice. Josh Hoover has quietly operated a consistent offense in Fort Worth.

This week, TCU welcomes Iowa State, which hasn’t won a game since September and can’t stop the pass with its best corners out for the season. 

I like Hoover and the Horned Frogs to roll on offense at an equal or better rate to what they’ve done so far this year in their home splits. That means this team total is a bit soft. 

Prediction: TCU Team Total Over 31.5

Vanderbilt vs. Auburn Prediction

Auburn is near-winless in SEC play and just fired its coach. So why is it less than a touchdown dog at No. 15 Vanderbilt this week?

This number is extremely smelly. One possible explanation is that the Tigers may be getting a dead cat bounce with Hugh Freeze now gone. Whether it’s that or something else, I’ll lean into the weird here and take the points with Auburn. 

Prediction: Auburn +6.5

College Football Best Bets: Week 11

• Tulane +6.5
• West Virginia -6.5
• JMU/Marshall Under 55.5
• Missouri State/Liberty Under 51.5
• UConn +9.5
• TCU Team Total Over 31.5
• Auburn +6.5