College Football Predictions & Best Bets for Week 7

After a rare bad week of game predictions, I’m diving right back into the Week 7 college football odds market.

This week’s targets include a G5 playoff favorite on the road and several home dogs in Big 12 country.

North Texas vs. South Florida Prediction

This game jumped out at me right away. South Florida is the current favorite to represent the Group of 5 in the 2025 College Football Playoff, yet it’s a virtual pick ‘em on the road in Denton. 

North Texas is a dangerous team, no doubt. But after digging in, the real advantage here for the Mean Green is the rest differential. Because this game is on Friday, that means USF is on the road on short rest. But UNT had a bye last week, which makes the preparation discrepancy very wide here. 

Prediction: North Texas -105

Alabama vs. Missouri Prediction

Alabama is riding high right now, earning high-profile wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt in the last two weeks and quickly ascending the college football futures tables – particularly the college football national championship odds. (Alabama is now also the favorite to win the SEC.)

I think this is a good time to take a stab at selling high on the Tide. Missouri doesn’t have the brand power of Georgia, but the game analytics suggest that the Tigers are actually a tougher matchup for Alabama. Ty Simpson passed all day long against Georgia’s worse-than-you-realize secondary; Missouri ranks 17th nationally in EPA/pass allowed. 

Missouri should win the line of scrimmage in this game. On offense, the Tigers rank ninth nationally in EPA/rush, thanks to the excellence of Ahmad Hardy. They can also stop Alabama’s run game, with ranks outside the top 60 in the same category. 

Oh, and they’re also coming off a bye, whereas Alabama has had back-to-back emotional wins.

Don’t get too down on Alabama if they lose, since this is just life in the SEC. But this is not Nick Saban’s Alabama, where the Crimson Tide are an unbeatable juggernaut. We’ve already seen Alabama lose to Florida State this year, and I think Mizzou deals out loss No. 2.

Prediction: Missouri +3; Missouri +135

Iowa State vs. Colorado Prediction

This is another game where I just like the home team. Colorado is scrappier than some may realize this year, and Iowa State’s secondary isn’t getting any better with multiple all-conference corners now out for the year. 

I think Colorado can play a close game and potentially steal this one against a team that’s better than it is, at least on paper. 

Prediction: Colorado +3.5; Colorado +135

Michigan vs. USC Prediction

USC is coming off a bye and will be focused on playing better after its loss at Illinois. Here, the Trojans will be the beneficiaries of a little travel luck, with Michigan playing thousands of miles away from home and on a different body clock.

All of that is interesting, but it’s secondary to why I like the game. This is yet another game where an unranked favorite is laying points against a ranked underdog, which is one of my favorite trends in college football.

Prediction: USC -2.5

BYU vs. Arizona Prediction

The sportsbook is just begging you to consider No. 18 BYU here as a mere 2.5-point favorite at Arizona. But I like Arizona’s good secondary to challenge Bear Bachmeier after a mostly easy schedule to this point in the season. 

The under could be an interesting look here as well. Arizona and BYU are a combined 7-2 to the under so far this season, and both defenses could play ahead of the opposing offenses in this game.

Prediction: Arizona +2.5

Arizona State vs. Utah Prediction

This is the second unranked favorite playing a ranked dog of the week. And in truth, this one scares me a tiny bit, since Arizona State was doubted and miscast throughout most of the 2024 season. The Sun Devils laughed all the way to the College Football Playoff.

But this year, the analytics suggest that Utah is the right side of this game. I think Sam Leavitt will find some room to run on his keepers, but it could be a tough night through the air. As for Utah, I think their power run game and Dampier keepers should dominate the line of scrimmage – ASU ranks outside the top 100 in FBS for EPA/rush allowed. 

Prediction: Utah -5.5