Boise State vs Nevada Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 11, 2022, 2:30 PM
  • Boise State (6-3) are -20.5 point favorites vs Nevada (2-7)
  • Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
  • Watch the game on CBS Sports Network

The Boise State Broncos (8-3) visit Mackay Stadium to take on the Nevada Wolf Pack (2-9) on Nov. 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30pm EST in Reno.

are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Boise State vs. Nevada is total points.

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Boise State vs. Nevada Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 11

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Boise State
Nevada

Boise State vs Nevada Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Boise State will win this game with 76.9% confidence.

Boise State vs Nevada Spread Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Nevada will cover the spread with 65.4% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Boise State and Nevada, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Boise State Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Boise State players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • George Holani has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 78% ROI)
  • Boise State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+7.35 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Boise State has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 9 away games (+6.90 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Boise State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.65 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Boise State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.12 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Boise State has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 4 games (+3.00 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Nevada has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.75 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Nevada has hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Nevada has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.40 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Nevada has hit the 1H Moneyline in 1 of their last 4 games (+2.45 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Nevada has hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.45 Units / 18% ROI)

Boise State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Boise State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Boise State is 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.8 Units / -26.31% ROI
  • Boise State is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
  • Boise State is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI

Nevada Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Nevada has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Nevada is 2-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.5 Units / -43.48% ROI
  • Nevada is 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.52% ROI
  • Nevada is 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.35 Units / -4% ROI

Boise State: Keys to the Game vs. Nevada

Boise State is winless (0-7) when allowing 22 or more points — tied for worst in FBS; Average: .284

Boise State is undefeated (9-0) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game — tied for best in FBS; Average: .544

Boise State is 10-3 (.769) when not losing a fumble — 11th-best in FBS; Average: .507

Boise State is 12-2 (.800) when rushing for more than 100 yards — tied for 9th-best in FBS; Average: .537

Matchup Notes for Boise State vs. Nevada

Nevada has 542 receptions in 21 games (25.8 per game) since the 2021 season — fourth-best among FBS skill players. Boise State’s defense has allowed just 14.2 receptions per game since the 2021 season — second-best among NonP5 defenses.

Nevada has 542 receptions in 21 games (25.8 per game) since the 2021 season — fourth-best among FBS skill players. Boise State’s defense has allowed just 14.2 receptions per game since the 2021 season — second-best among FBS defenses.

Nevada’s RBs has rushed for 657 yards on 200 carries (just 3.3 YPC) this season — second-worst among FBS RBs. Boise State’s defense have allowed just 3.3 YPC to RBs this season — tied for best among FBS defenses.

Boise State Offensive Stats & Trends

Boise State RBs have 9 receptions in the Red Zone this season– most among FBS Teams

Boise State WRs have averaged just 8.3 yards per reception (124 yards/15 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– tied for 5th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 13.0

Boise State RBs have been targeted 9 times in the Red Zone this season– tied for 2nd most among FBS Teams

Boise State Skill Players have 30 receptions in the Red Zone this season– 5th most among FBS Teams

Boise State Skill Players have caught 30 of 39 passes (77% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone this season– tied for 3rd best among FBS Teams; Average: 58%

Nevada Offensive Stats & Trends

Nevada Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 37.0 receptions (148 Rec/4 TDs) this season– tied for worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.6

Nevada Skill Players have just one touchdown on 8 receptions in the Red Zone this season– 5th worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.1

Nevada RBs have averaged just 3.3 Yards per Carry (657 yards/200 carries) this season– 2nd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

Nevada has 542 receptions in 21 games (25.8 per game) since the 2021 season — fourth-best among FBS skill players. Boise State’s defense has allowed just 14.2 receptions per game since the 2021 season — second-best among NonP5 defenses.

Nevada WRs have averaged a touchdown every 32.3 receptions (97 Rec/3 TDs) this season– 3rd worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.1

Boise State Broncos Defensive Stats & Trends

Boise State has not recorded a sack (57 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since last season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: 16.0

Boise State opponents has averaged 8.1 Passing Attempts per TD (57 Pass Attempts/7 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since last season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 3.8

Boise State has not recorded a sack (57 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since last season– tied for worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 16.0

Boise State has allowed a passer rating of just 88.2 in the Red Zone (57.0 Pass Attempts) since last season– best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 168.1

Boise State has allowed one passing TD (18 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 4.0

Nevada Wolf Pack Defensive Stats & Trends

Nevada has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 16 of 94 attempts (17%) on 3rd and long since last season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 10%

Nevada has allowed a Completion Pct of 65% (32 completions/49 attempts) in the Red Zone since last season– 4th worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 55%

Nevada has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 16 of 94 attempts (17%) on 3rd and long since last season– 2nd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 10%

Nevada has forced 28 fumbles since last season– 2nd most among Non-Power 5 Teams

Nevada has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 8 of 44 attempts (18%) on 3rd and long this season– 2nd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 10%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.