Boston College vs Virginia Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 6

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Virginia coach Tony Elliott reacts to a call on the field during the first half of the team's NCAA college football game against Duke in Durham, N.C., Saturday, Oct. 1, 2022.
(AP Photo/Ben McKeown)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 04, 2024, 11:50 AM
  • The Virginia is a -1 point favorite vs. Boston College
  • The Boston College vs. Virginia Total (Over/Under): 53 points
  • TV Channel: ACCN

The Boston College Eagles (4-1) visit David A. Harrison III Field at Scott Stadium to take on the Virginia Cavaliers (3-1) on Oct. 5 in Charlottesville, VA. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.

Virginia is a betting favorite in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -1 (-110).

The Boston College vs. Virginia Over/Under is 53 total points.

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Boston College vs. Virginia Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Boston College+1 -11053 -110-105
Virginia -1 -11053 -110-115

Boston College vs Virginia Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Virginia will win this game with 59.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Boston College and Virginia, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Boston College vs Virginia Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Virginia will cover the spread with 53.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Boston College has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+12.15 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Boston College has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 away games (+5.55 Units / 91% ROI)
  • Boston College has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.95 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Boston College have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Boston College have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.85 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+10.15 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+6.85 Units / 79% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.70 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Virginia have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.70 Units / 25% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Boston College players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Boston College Player Prop Bets Today

  • Thomas Castellanos has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 4 games (+4.55 Units / 71% ROI)
  • Thomas Castellanos has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Lewis Bond has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Kye Robichaux has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Thomas Castellanos has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Virginia players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Virginia Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Malachi Fields has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Kobe Pace has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Tony Muskett has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Tony Muskett has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 47% ROI)

Boston College Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Boston College is 3-1 against the spread this college football season (+1.9 Units / 34.55% ROI).

  • Boston College is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.05 Units / 67.98% ROI
  • Boston College is 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -41.82% ROI
  • Boston College is 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 34.55% ROI

Virginia Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Virginia is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -2.27% ROI).

  • Virginia is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.65 Units / 4% ROI
  • Virginia is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -27.27% ROI
  • Virginia is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 20.45% ROI

Boston College: Keys to the Game vs. Virginia

Boston College is 8-3 (.727) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– 13th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .535

Boston College is 8-3 (.727) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– 18th-best in FBS; Average: .506

Boston College is 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-15th-best in FBS; Average: .628

Boston College is 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-13th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .698

Virginia: Keys to the Game vs. Boston College

Virginia is 1-7 (.125) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-5th-worst in FBS; Average: .487

Virginia is 1-7 (.125) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .543

Virginia is 5-7 (.417) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 9th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .688

Virginia is 5-7 (.417) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-26th-worst in FBS; Average: .630

Matchup Notes for Boston College vs. Virginia

Virginia’s WRs has 252 receptions in 16 games (15.8 per game) since the 2023 season — 24th-best among FBS WRs. Boston College’s defense has allowed just 15.9 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 14th-best among FBS defenses.

Virginia’s WRs has 252 receptions in 16 games (15.8 per game) since the 2023 season — 24th-best among FBS WRs. Boston College’s defense has allowed just 10.0 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — 8th-best among FBS defenses.

Virginia’s WRs has 252 receptions in 16 games (15.8 per game) since the 2023 season — 24th-best among FBS WRs. Boston College’s defense has allowed just 15.9 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among ACC defenses.

Boston College’s offense has thrown for 920 passing yards in 5 games (just 184.0 YPG) this season — 32nd-worst among FBS offenses. Virginia’s defense has allowed 269.5 passing yards per game this season — 16th-worst among FBS defenses.

Boston College’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.3% of 105 attempts this season — 25th-best among FBS offenses. Virginia’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.1% of attempts this season — 4th-best among ACC defenses.

Boston College’s offense has thrown for 3,314 passing yards in 18 games (just 184.1 YPG) since the 2023 season — 19th-worst among FBS offenses. Virginia’s defense has allowed 236.4 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 5th-worst among ACC defenses.

Boston College Offensive Stats & Trends

Boston College’s offense has thrown for 920 passing yards in 5 games (just 184.0 YPG) this season — 32nd-worst among FBS offenses. Virginia’s defense has allowed 269.5 passing yards per game this season — 16th-worst among FBS defenses.

Boston College’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.3% of 105 attempts this season — 25th-best among FBS offenses. Virginia’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.1% of attempts this season — 4th-best among ACC defenses.

Boston College’s offense has thrown for 3,314 passing yards in 18 games (just 184.1 YPG) since the 2023 season — 19th-worst among FBS offenses. Virginia’s defense has allowed 236.4 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 5th-worst among ACC defenses.

Boston College’s QBs has thrown for 3,314 passing yards in 18 games (just 184.1 YPG) since the 2023 season — 19th-worst among FBS teams. Virginia’s defense has allowed 236.4 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 5th-worst among ACC defenses.

Boston College QBs have rushed for 9 TDs in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– most among FBS Teams

Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends

Virginia’s WRs has 252 receptions in 16 games (15.8 per game) since the 2023 season — 24th-best among FBS WRs. Boston College’s defense has allowed just 15.9 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 14th-best among FBS defenses.

Virginia’s WRs has 252 receptions in 16 games (15.8 per game) since the 2023 season — 24th-best among FBS WRs. Boston College’s defense has allowed just 10.0 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — 8th-best among FBS defenses.

Virginia’s WRs has 252 receptions in 16 games (15.8 per game) since the 2023 season — 24th-best among FBS WRs. Boston College’s defense has allowed just 15.9 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among ACC defenses.

Virginia TEs have picked up first downs on 4 receptions in the Red Zone this season– T-most among Power Conference Teams

Virginia TEs have picked up first downs on 4 receptions in the Red Zone this season– T-most among FBS Teams

Boston College Eagles Defensive Stats & Trends

Boston College has averaged 1.2 sacks per game since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.3

Boston College has averaged a sack every 23.9 pass attempts (501 Pass Attempts/21 Sacks) since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.8

Boston College did not record a sack (27 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1

Boston College has allowed 4.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (587 yards / 122 touches) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 3.7

Boston College has tackled opponents for a loss on just 75 of 628 rushing attempts (12% TFL%) since the 2023 season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.

Virginia Cavaliers Defensive Stats & Trends

Virginia has intercepted one of 141 attempts this season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 32.1

Virginia has averaged a sack every 25.9 pass attempts (518 Pass Attempts/20 Sacks) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.8

Virginia has averaged 1.2 sacks per game since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.3

Virginia sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (11/377) in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

Virginia has tackled opponents for a loss on 2 of 13 rushing attempts (15% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– T-34th-best in FBS; Average: 11%.


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.