Buffalo U vs Bowling Green Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 10

BetMGM Betting Oct 28, 2025, 9:27 PM

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(AP Photo/Doug McSchooler)

Bowling Green is a -1.5 point favorite vs. Buffalo U
Buffalo vs. Bowling Green Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN+

Buffalo (4-4) visit Doyt L. Perry Stadium to take on Bowling Green (3-5) on Nov. 1 in Bowling Green, OH. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.

Bowling Green is a betting favorite in Week 10, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-115).

The Buffalo vs. Bowling Green Over/Under is 43.5 total points.

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Buffalo vs. Bowling Green Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Buffalo	+1.5 -105	43.5 -110	105
Bowling Green	-1.5 -115	43.5 -110	-125

Buffalo vs Bowling Green Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Bowling Green will win this game with 53.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Buffalo U and Bowling Green, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Buffalo vs Bowling Green Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Bowling Green will cover the spread with 52.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Buffalo Best Bets Today

Buffalo has hit the Team Total Under in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Buffalo has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 31% ROI)
Buffalo have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.25 Units / 28% ROI)
Buffalo has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.00 Units / 12% ROI)
Buffalo has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.85 Units / 55% ROI)

Bowling Green Best Bets Today

Bowling Green has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.19 Units / 39% ROI)
Bowling Green has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.35 Units / 23% ROI)
Bowling Green has hit the Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.80 Units / 14% ROI)
Bowling Green has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)
Bowling Green has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.20 Units / 1% ROI)

Buffalo Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Buffalo U is 2-5 against the spread this college football season (-3.5 Units / -39.77% ROI).

Buffalo is 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -5 Units / -12.24% ROI
Buffalo is 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
Buffalo is 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI

Bowling Green Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Bowling Green iss 4-4 against the spread this college football season (-0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI).

Bowling Green is 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.5 Units / -6.64% ROI
Bowling Green is 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
Bowling Green is 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI

Buffalo: Keys to the Game vs. Bowling Green

Buffalo was undefeated (8-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .632

Buffalo was 5-2 (.714) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-40th-best in FBS; Average: .604

Buffalo was 7-2 (.778) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-31st-best in FBS; Average: .628

Buffalo was undefeated (8-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .612

Bowling Green: Keys to the Game vs. Buffalo

Bowling Green TEs were targeted 13.5 times per game (176/13) last season– highest among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1

Bowling Green WRs have no touchdowns on 53 receptions this season– worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.3

Bowling Green TEs averaged 9.8 receptions per game (128/13) last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.4

Bowling Green TEs averaged 124.9 receiving yards per game (1,624/13) last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 37.2

Bowling Green TEs have averaged 8.0 receptions per game (167/21) since the 2024 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.4

Matchup Notes for Buffalo vs. Bowling Green