BYU vs Utah Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

Utah quarterback Cameron Rising warms up before the Pac-12 Conference championship NCAA college football game against Southern California, Friday, Dec. 2, 2022, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/Steve Marcus)
(AP Photo/Steve Marcus)
  • BYU is a -4 point favorite vs. Utah
  • BYU vs. Utah Total (Over/Under): 40.5 points
  • TV Channel: ESPN

The BYU Cougars (8-0) visit Rice-Eccles Stadium to take on the Utah Utes (4-4) on Nov. 9 in Salt Lake City, UT. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:15pm EST.

BYU is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -4 (-110).

The BYU vs. Utah Over/Under is 40.5 total points.

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BYU vs. Utah Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
BYU-4 -11040.5 -110-190
Utah +4 -11040.5 -110+155

BYU vs Utah Prediction:

The winning team model predicts BYU will win this game with 62.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both BYU and Utah, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

BYU vs Utah Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Utah will cover the spread with 65.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • BYU has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+8.50 Units / 55% ROI)
  • BYU has hit the 1Q Moneyline in their last 5 away games (+7.60 Units / 122% ROI)
  • BYU have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 55% ROI)
  • BYU has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 away games (+6.05 Units / 86% ROI)
  • BYU have covered the 1H Spread in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 90% ROI)
  • Utah has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Utah has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.90 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Utah has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+1.85 Units / 36% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for BYU players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best BYU Player Prop Bets Today

  • Jake Retzlaff has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 86% ROI)
  • Hinckley Ropati has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Darius Lassiter has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.65 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Chase Roberts has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 95% ROI)
  • Kody Epps has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Utah players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Utah Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Dorian Singer has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Cameron Rising has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Micah Bernard has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Isaac Wilson has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 69% ROI)
  • Cameron Rising has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 53% ROI)

BYU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

BYU is 7-1 against the spread this college football season (+5.9 Units / 65.56% ROI).

  • BYU is 7-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.5 Units / 92% ROI
  • BYU is 6-2 when betting the Over for +3.8 Units / 43.18% ROI
  • BYU is 2-6 when betting the Under for -4.6 Units / -52.27% ROI

Utah Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Utah is 2-6 against the spread this college football season (-4.6 Units / -51.98% ROI).

  • Utah is 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.85 Units / -17.23% ROI
  • Utah is 1-7 when betting the Over for -6.75 Units / -76.27% ROI
  • Utah is 7-1 when betting the Under for +5.9 Units / 67.43% ROI

BYU: Keys to the Game vs. Utah

BYU is undefeated (8-0) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-best in FBS; Average: .590

BYU is winless (0-4) when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .397

BYU is 8-6 (.571) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-34th-best in FBS; Average: .446

BYU is 6-2 (.750) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-8th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .530

Utah: Keys to the Game vs. BYU

Utah is 10-2 (.833) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-26th-best in FBS; Average: .671

Utah is 10-3 (.769) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-23rd-best in FBS; Average: .607

Utah is 10-1 (.909) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-15th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .785

Utah is 12-4 (.750) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season– T-34th-best in FBS; Average: .635

Matchup Notes for BYU vs. Utah

Utah’s WRs has 198 receptions in 21 games (just 9.4 per game) since the 2023 season — T-4th-worst among Power 5 WRs. BYU’s defense has allowed 19.8 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-32nd-worst among FBS defenses.

Utah’s WRs has 198 receptions in 21 games (just 9.4 per game) since the 2023 season — T-13th-worst among FBS WRs. BYU’s defense has allowed 19.8 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Utah’s WRs has 198 receptions in 21 games (just 9.4 per game) since the 2023 season — worst among Big 12 WRs. BYU’s defense has allowed 19.8 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

BYU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.2% of 234 attempts this season — T-20th-best among FBS offenses. Utah’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.8% of attempts this season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

BYU has 358 receptions in 20 games (just 17.9 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-worst among Big 12 skill players. Utah’s defense has allowed just 17.1 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among Big 12 defenses.

BYU’s WRs has gained 1,490 yards on 97 receptions (15.4 YPR) this season — best among Big 12 WRs. Utah’s defense has allowed 14.4 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.

BYU Offensive Stats & Trends

BYU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.2% of 234 attempts this season — T-20th-best among FBS offenses. Utah’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.8% of attempts this season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

BYU has 358 receptions in 20 games (just 17.9 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-worst among Big 12 skill players. Utah’s defense has allowed just 17.1 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among Big 12 defenses.

BYU’s WRs has gained 1,490 yards on 97 receptions (15.4 YPR) this season — best among Big 12 WRs. Utah’s defense has allowed 14.4 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.

BYU has 358 receptions in 20 games (just 17.9 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-worst among Big 12 skill players. Utah’s defense has allowed just 17.1 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-26th-best among FBS defenses.

BYU has 19 receiving touchdowns this season — 4th-most among Big 12 skill players. Utah’s defense has allowed 10 receiving touchdowns this season — 3rd-fewest among Big 12 defenses.

Utah Offensive Stats & Trends

Utah’s WRs has 198 receptions in 21 games (just 9.4 per game) since the 2023 season — T-4th-worst among Power 5 WRs. BYU’s defense has allowed 19.8 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-32nd-worst among FBS defenses.

Utah’s WRs has 198 receptions in 21 games (just 9.4 per game) since the 2023 season — T-13th-worst among FBS WRs. BYU’s defense has allowed 19.8 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Utah’s WRs has 198 receptions in 21 games (just 9.4 per game) since the 2023 season — worst among Big 12 WRs. BYU’s defense has allowed 19.8 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Utah’s WRs has 198 receptions in 21 games (just 9.4 per game) since the 2023 season — worst among Big 12 WRs. BYU’s defense has allowed 19.8 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-32nd-worst among FBS defenses.

Utah’s TEs has gained 571 yards on 40 receptions (14.3 YPR) this season — best among Big 12 TEs. BYU’s defense has allowed just 10.2 Yards Per Reception this season — 2nd-best among Big 12 defenses.

BYU Cougars Defensive Stats & Trends

BYU sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (11/408) in the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 6%

BYU has averaged a sack every 28.6 pass attempts (686 Pass Attempts/24 Sacks) since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.0

BYU has sacked opposing QBs just once on 71 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.9

BYU has not recorded a sack (32 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16.3

BYU has sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (24/686) since the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 6%

Utah Utes Defensive Stats & Trends

Utah has tackled opponents for a loss on 4 of 15 rushing attempts (27% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– best in the Big 12; Average: 10%.

Utah has tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 30 rushing attempts (23% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11%.

Utah has allowed a Completion Pct of just 50% (113 completions/226 attempts) this season– best in the Big 12; Average: 60%

Utah has allowed a Completion Pct of just 50% (113 completions/226 attempts) this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%

Utah has tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 30 rushing attempts (23% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 10%.


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About the Author

Nick Hennion

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Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.