California vs SMU Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 14

SMU quarterback Preston Stone (2) during the first half of an NCAA college football game against SMU, Saturday, Sept. 9, 2023, in Norman, Okla. (AP Photo/Alonzo Adams)
(AP Photo/Alonzo Adams)
  • SMU is a -13.5 point favorite vs. California
  • California vs. SMU Total (Over/Under): 56.5 points
  • TV Channel: ESPN2

The California Golden Bears (6-5) visit Gerald J. Ford Stadium to take on the SMU Mustangs (10-1) on Nov. 30 in Dallas, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.

SMU is a betting favorite in Week 14, with the spread sitting at -13.5 (-110).

The California vs. SMU Over/Under is 56.5 total points.

Bet now on SMU vs California & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

California vs. SMU Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
California+13.5 -11056.5 -105+400
SMU -13.5 -11056.5 -115-550

California vs SMU Prediction:

The winning team model predicts SMU will win this game with 82.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both California and SMU, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

California vs SMU Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts California will cover the spread with 54.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


Bet now on SMU vs California and all games with BetMGM


  • California has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+3.70 Units / 28% ROI)
  • California has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 10 games (+2.60 Units / 23% ROI)
  • California has hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 away games (+1.75 Units / 26% ROI)
  • California has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.40 Units / 10% ROI)
  • California have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
  • SMU has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 28% ROI)
  • SMU has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
  • SMU have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 18% ROI)
  • SMU have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.45 Units / 16% ROI)
  • SMU has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.35 Units / 19% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for California players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best California Player Prop Bets Today

  • Nyziah Hunter has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Trond Grizzell has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Jack Endries has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Fernando Mendoza has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Fernando Mendoza has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 69% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for SMU players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best SMU Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Preston Stone has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.25 Units / 71% ROI)
  • Jake Bailey has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Brashard Smith has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Preston Stone has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Kevin Jennings has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

California Against the Spread (ATS) Record

California is 6-5 against the spread this college football season (+0.55 Units / 4.56% ROI).

  • California is 6-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.25 Units / -2.38% ROI
  • California is 3-6 when betting the Over for -3.6 Units / -29.75% ROI
  • California is 6-3 when betting the Under for +2.7 Units / 22.31% ROI

SMU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

SMU is 7-4 against the spread this college football season (+2.6 Units / 21.58% ROI).

  • SMU is 9-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.1 Units / 6.63% ROI
  • SMU is 7-4 when betting the Over for +2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI
  • SMU is 4-7 when betting the Under for -3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI

California: Keys to the Game vs. SMU

California is 5-12 (.294) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-35th-worst in FBS; Average: .442

California is 5-9 (.357) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2023 season– 13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .498

California is 3-8 (.273) when losing at least one fumble since the 2023 season– 15th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .462

California is 4-6 (.400) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .589

SMU: Keys to the Game vs. California

SMU is 8-1 (.889) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .525

SMU is 10-1 (.909) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-4th-best in FBS; Average: .579

SMU is undefeated (21-0) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .751

SMU is 17-1 (.944) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-5th-best in FBS; Average: .667

Matchup Notes for California vs. SMU

SMU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.7% of 313 attempts this season — 17th-best among FBS offenses. California’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.0% of attempts this season — T-30th-best among FBS defenses.

SMU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.7% of 313 attempts this season — 17th-best among FBS offenses. California’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.0% of attempts this season — 4th-best among ACC defenses.

SMU’s offense has thrown for 6,771 passing yards in 25 games (270.8 YPG) since the 2023 season — 21st-best among FBS offenses. California’s defense has allowed 257.0 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 8th-worst among FBS defenses.

California has averaged just 10.9 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among ACC skill players. SMU’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC since the 2023 season — T-23rd-best among FBS defenses.

California’s WRs has averaged just 11.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-2nd-worst among ACC WRs. SMU’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC since the 2023 season — T-23rd-best among FBS defenses.

California’s TEs has 66 receptions in 11 games (6.0 per game) this season — 4th-best among P5 TEs. SMU’s defense has allowed 4.1 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.

California Offensive Stats & Trends

California has averaged just 10.9 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among ACC skill players. SMU’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC since the 2023 season — T-23rd-best among FBS defenses.

California’s WRs has averaged just 11.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-2nd-worst among ACC WRs. SMU’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC since the 2023 season — T-23rd-best among FBS defenses.

California’s TEs has 66 receptions in 11 games (6.0 per game) this season — 4th-best among P5 TEs. SMU’s defense has allowed 4.1 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.

California has averaged just 10.9 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among ACC skill players. SMU’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among ACC defenses.

California have been sacked on 20% of pass attempts (16/79) in the 4th quarter this season– worst among Power Conference Offenses; Average: 7%

SMU Offensive Stats & Trends

SMU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.7% of 313 attempts this season — 17th-best among FBS offenses. California’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.0% of attempts this season — T-30th-best among FBS defenses.

SMU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.7% of 313 attempts this season — 17th-best among FBS offenses. California’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.0% of attempts this season — 4th-best among ACC defenses.

SMU’s offense has thrown for 6,771 passing yards in 25 games (270.8 YPG) since the 2023 season — 21st-best among FBS offenses. California’s defense has allowed 257.0 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 8th-worst among FBS defenses.

SMU’s TEs has gained 1,242 yards on 82 receptions (15.1 YPR) since the 2023 season — best among ACC TEs. California’s defense has allowed just 10.2 Yards Per Reception to TEs since the 2023 season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.

SMU RBs had 40 receiving yards on 3rd down last week– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams

California Golden Bears Defensive Stats & Trends

California has sacked opposing QBs just once on 112 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.8

California has sacked opposing QBs just once on 112 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 15.0

California has not recorded a sack (45 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 14.9

California has tackled opponents for a loss on just 11 of 152 rushing attempts (7% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 15%.

California has tackled opponents for a loss on just 11 of 152 rushing attempts (7% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.

SMU Mustangs Defensive Stats & Trends

SMU sacked opposing QBs on 33% of pass attempts (9/27) last week– best in FBS; Average: 7%

SMU sacked opposing QBs on 33% of pass attempts (9/27) last week– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

SMU sacked opponents 9 times last week– most in FBS

SMU sacked opponents 9 times last week– most among Power Conference Teams

SMU allowed 3.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (173 yards / 57 touches) last week– best in FBS; Average: 6.8


Bet now on SMU vs California and all games with BetMGM


More College Football Betting at BetMGM

BetMGM is the best online sportsbook for college football betting.

Whether youโ€™re a first-time bettor checking out the best sportsbook promos, a casual fan betting on Georgia football national championship odds, Michigan football odds, or Ohio State playoff odds, or a longtime diehard breaking down trends for live sports betting, there are entertainment options for everyone.

Visit the sportsbook today to place a college football bet online!

BetMGM First Bet Offer
About the Author

BetMGM

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.

Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.