Central Florida vs Baylor Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 10

BetMGM Betting Oct 28, 2025, 9:29 PM

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Baylor head coach Dave Aranda yells from the sideline during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Albany in Waco, Texas, Saturday, Sept. 3, 2022. (AP Photo/LM Otero)

(AP Photo/LM Otero)

Baylor is a -4.5 point favorite vs. Central Florida
UCF vs. Baylor Total (Over/Under): 59.5 points
TV Channel: ESPNU

UCF (4-3) visit McLane Stadium to take on Baylor (4-4) on Nov. 1 in Waco, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.

Baylor is a betting favorite in Week 10, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-110).

The UCF vs. Baylor Over/Under is 59.5 total points.

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UCF vs. Baylor Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
UCF	+4.5 -110	59.5 -105	170
Baylor	-4.5 -110	59.5 -115	-210

UCF vs Baylor Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Baylor will win this game with 62.6% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Central Florida and Baylor, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

UCF vs Baylor Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Baylor will cover the spread with 55.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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UCF Best Bets Today

UCF have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.63 Units / 21% ROI)
UCF has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.50 Units / 12% ROI)
UCF has hit the Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.50 Units / 8% ROI)
UCF has hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.50 Units / 4% ROI)
UCF has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+0.10 Units / 0% ROI)

Baylor Best Bets Today

Baylor has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.60 Units / 25% ROI)
Baylor has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.35 Units / 9% ROI)
Baylor has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.30 Units / 4% ROI)
Baylor has hit the Team Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.75 Units / 13% ROI)

UCF Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Central Florida is 4-3 against the spread this college football season (+0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI).

UCF is 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
UCF is 3-4 when betting the Over for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI
UCF is 4-3 when betting the Under for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI

Baylor Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Baylor iss 1-7 against the spread this college football season (-6.85 Units / -76.54% ROI).

Baylor is 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.2 Units / -5.62% ROI
Baylor is 5-3 when betting the Over for +1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI
Baylor is 3-5 when betting the Under for -2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI

UCF: Keys to the Game vs. Baylor

UCF Skill Players have caught just 11 of 37 passes (30% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– worst among Big 12 Teams; Average: 57%

UCF Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 25.0 receptions (150 Rec/6 TDs) this season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.5

UCF’s TEs has 37 receptions in 7 games (5.3 per game) this season — 5th-best among Big 12 TEs. Baylor’s defense has allowed 4.0 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.

UCF have thrown 5 TDs on 39 pass attempts (one TD every 7.8 Pass Attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 3.7

UCF RBs averaged 7.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (1,580 yards / 208 touches) on 1st down last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4

Baylor: Keys to the Game vs. UCF

Baylor was 1-4 (.200) when in a one score game last season– T-6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514

Baylor was 2-5 (.286) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-37th-worst in FBS; Average: .420

Baylor is 10-4 (.714) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2024 season– T-38th-best in FBS; Average: .615

Baylor is 10-8 (.556) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2024 season– T-38th-best in FBS; Average: .436

Matchup Notes for UCF vs. Baylor